Zenon Kowal discusses impact of new European Commission composition on Ukraine

In July 2024, the European Parliament re-elected the current President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, for a second term. She is expected to soon present the final list of commissioners—the members of the EU’s executive body who develop policy, initiate legislation, oversee its implementation in member states, manage the EU budget, and represent the EU internationally.

Zenon Kowal, a member of the UWC Executive Committee, Political Advisor to the European Congress of Ukrainians and the Association of Ukrainians in Belgium, as well as former Special Advisor to the Embassy of Ukraine in Belgium (1992-1995), provided insights to the Ukrainian World Congress regarding the anticipated appointments of EU commissioners and their potential implications for Ukraine. Below are his direct remarks.

The list of new European Commission members is expected to be announced by the end of this week. Ursula von der Leyen is currently working to better organize the commissioners’ work. Alongside her, there are 27 officials – a substantial team to manage. The President of the European Commission also has 4 executive Vice Presidents, each responsible for several areas.

Predicting the impact on Ukraine before the official appointments is difficult. However, it is already known that a new commissioner will be appointed to handle defense issues. This area does not fall under the European Commission’s powers directly related to defense but rather to the defense industry. The appointed member will coordinate Europe’s defense industry, a significant position requiring both investment and political will for European countries to work together in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Currently, Thierry Breton – a Frenchman and the current European Commissioner for the Internal Market – is considered a potential appointee. Latvian politician Valdis Dombrovskis is also being considered.

Another crucial aspect for Ukraine is foreign policy. Former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will lead this direction within the European Commission. Kallas is well aware of Russia’s threat and strongly supports Ukraine.

The position of EU Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement remains open. Hungarian politician Olivér Várhelyi has held the post, and his work has faced considerable criticism. Therefore, there are rumors that if Dombrovskis is not appointed as the defense commissioner, he might handle the potential new EU member sector.

Another very important aspect is financial. Countries that have nominated their commissioners to the European Commission will compete for control over the budget and the economic component. The economy is crucial – it impacts development, employment, and GDP growth.

Overall, the European Commission’s position is very supportive of Ukraine. Previous statements regarding aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been strong. Now it remains to be seen if the European Commission can turn its promises into concrete policy beyond statements.

All countries around the world are watching the European Union’s actions, especially its support for Ukraine. This is a matter of values, life ethics, a rule-based order, and human rights guarantees. We’ll see how well the EU can maintain its course.

Cover: open sources