Ukrainian historian Hromenko: Russia could still defeat NATO

Russia still has the potential to put NATO in a difficult position, potentially seizing part of Europe and undermining the unity of the military-political alliance, argues Serhii Hromenko, who has a Ph.D. in historical sciences and is an expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.

“By ‘defeat,’ I don’t mean ‘crushing’ or even ‘conquering.’ There won’t be tank columns marching to Berlin, as Russia lacks the necessary tanks. But they’re not needed,” Hromenko said.

However, defeat does not necessarily mean unconditional surrender in the capital’s ruins; rather, it could result in a post-war order that is worse than the pre-war one, the historian said.

“NATO as a collective power currently outmatches Russia, but would that collective remain if Russia seized a part of European territory?” Hromenko said.

He identifies Narva and Svalbard as the most likely targets. 

Narva, an Estonian city with a predominantly Russian-speaking population, lies on Russia’s border, while Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic, is strategically significant due to its proximity to Russia and its natural resources.

“Would all NATO countries come together to defend them, or would they merely express concern? Would they bomb Narva or Moscow?” Hromenko said.

To recover from the failure of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia could still launch a final push for Narva, even if it becomes its last attempt. But if NATO fails to respond appropriately, this could also be the Alliance’s final stand.

“In March 1939, Europe was asked whether it was worth dying for Danzig [the historical German name for Gdansk – ed.]. At that time, Europe chose not to. We all know the consequences. I hope this time history will take a different path,” Hromenko said.

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