Ukraine launches offensive into Russia’s Kursk Oblast: why it matters

Specialists at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report that purported Ukrainian forces have advanced up to ten kilometers into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian military analyst and coordinator of the “Information Resistance” group, Kostyantyn Mashovets, announced that in just two days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have captured significantly more territory than Russian forces did during their one-and-a-half-month-long offensive against Kharkiv Oblast.

“Yes, the UAF have indeed physically cut off the enemy’s important axis in Kursk Oblast (the Rylsk – Korenovo – Sudzha road), at least in the section between Zelenyy Shlyakh and Sverdlikovo. The forward units of the UAF continue to advance towards Lyubimovka – Korenovo and also near the city of Sudzha (north of Honcharivka) and in the direction of Melovoye,” noted Mashovets.

The New York Times, citing military analysts, speculate that the UAF move could be an attempt to divert Russian units away from the current frontline. Thereby this reduces pressure on Ukrainian forces trying to hold back recent Russian advances. However,  some experts believe this maneuver might prove counter-productive, in that it could only worsen the situation for Ukrainian forces.  Accordingly the Russian army may have sufficient troop reserves and resources to engage in battle in those areas.

The Wall Street Journal has described the operation as “a more serious incursion than previous cross-border raids,” carried out by lightly-armed special forces who retreated after just a few days.

According to Kostyantyn Mashovets however, the strategy will force the Russians to redeploy significant numbers of troops to Kursk Oblast, away from other operational directions.  Those diverted Russian troops could include remnants of strategic reserves prepared for a August-September campaign.

“Even from this point of view, the UAF operation in the border area of Kursk Oblast is already justified,” argued Mashovets.

In the area likely occupied by the UAF, several critical Russian infrastructure objects are located, including the Gazprom gas metering station facilitating the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. There is a substation connecting Kursk NPP with Ukraine’s power system, along with the branch from Kursk NPP to Belgorod. A TV tower is located that broadcasts a stream of Russian state propaganda to Ukrainian territories.  Also important frontline roads and the “Lgov – Belgorod” railway, which serves as vital support to the enemy’s Kharkiv forces.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his evening video address on August 7 indirectly referenced the use of “just force” by Ukrainian troops on Russian territory.

“The more pressure there is on Russia, the aggressor who brought war to Ukraine, the closer peace will be. A just peace through just force. I thank all who ensure this,” Zelenskyy said.

Such operations by Ukraine, such as the ongoing one in Kursk Oblast, will positively affect potential negotiations with Russia, stated Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, during a Ukrainian television marathon.

Podolyak’s argument is that every Ukrainian action forwards the effort to achieve a just peace.

Russians have been reporting, since Tuesday, August 6, on attempts by Ukraine to break through into the territory of Kursk Oblast. There have been earlier reports from a range of Russian propagandists and “war correspondents” discussing the presence of Ukrainian forces along the border zone. On the evening of August 7, the local authorities declared a state of emergency for the Kursk Oblast.

On August 7, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller stated that the U.S. had not received prior warning from Ukraine about operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. However,  White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre reminded the media that Russian occupation forces have been regularly attacking Ukraine from the same territory of Kursk Oblast.

In a comment to “Suspilne,” European Commission Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs Peter Stano stated that according to international law, Ukraine “has the legal right to defend itself, including striking the aggressor on its territory.”

Cover: open sources