Timothy Snyder: a Third World War?

by Timothy Snyder, a distinguished American historian, an expert on Central and Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union, and the Holocaust, a Professor of History at Yale University 

Source: Snyder on Substack

It would be bad if your city burned down. This is a reasonable fear to have. What to do, then, if your neighbor’s house is on fire? Surely not blame the fire department for the fire and organize a protest in front of the station to trap the firetrucks inside. That’s no longer fear, but self-destructive panic. Hysteria makes the city burn down.

It would be bad if there were a third world war. That is a reasonable fear to have. By resisting Russia, Ukrainians are making every scenario for such a catastrophe less likely. On the scale of our world, the Ukrainians are the firemen. They are keeping the rest of us safe. It makes no sense to blame them for Russia’s invasion, nor to hinder them from doing their job. That’s no longer fear, but self-destructive panic. Hysteria makes the third world war more likely.

Let’s consider, soberly, three familiar scenarios for a third world war: (1) escalation from a conventional war in Europe; (2) escalation from a conventional war in the Pacific; and (3) the spread of nuclear weapons. In all three cases, Ukrainian resistance makes the rest of us safer. The Ukrainians are containing the ongoing war in Europe to their own country; they are deterring the war in the Pacific; and they are preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. These scenarios for a third world war have not played out because Ukrainians take risks.

1. Europe. The traditional scenario for a third world war since the 1940s has been a great-power conflict in Europe, resulting from an invasion led from Moscow. That invasion has taken place. Thanks to Ukraine, the ongoing war has been restricted to one country, their own. Russia invaded Ukraine without provocation in 2014, and then on a far larger scale in 2022. Despite the predictions of almost everyone, Ukraine has resisted Russia’s full-scale invasion, thereby keeping the largest war since 1945 contained on its own territory. This is such a stupendous accomplishment that we tend to overlook it. This comes at an unimaginable cost for Ukrainians. Ukraine does depend on weapons supplies from its allies. Should we cease these, because of our own fears or for some other reason, Ukraine can lose, and the war will very likely expand.
2. The Pacific. In the twenty-first century, the main scenario for a a third world war has been a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which provokes an American response. That invasion has not taken place and likely will not, so long as Ukraine resists and is able to resist. Whereas the Ukrainians are containing a war in Europe, they are deterring a war in the Pacific. So long as China sees a successful coalition and meaningful Ukrainian resistance, they are unlikely to undertake a risky offensive in the Pacific. As Taiwan’s leaders keep trying to tell us, a Ukrainian victory is the best way to prevent war in Asia. As the people most directly at risk, their firm and consistent request to Americans is to arm Ukraine.
3. Nuclear proliferation. Nuclear war becomes much more likely when more countries have nuclear weapons. Ukrainian resistance prevents this. Russia has been blackmailing Ukraine with nuclear war since February 2022. If the Ukrainians had yielded to this nuclear blackmail and not resisted, then the world would now be covered with nuclear weapons. The lesson would have been that every country that does not have them must build them in order to resist threats such as Russia’s. But Ukraine did resist. If we cease to support Ukraine, we not only kill the people who have been making us safe, we create a world in which nuclear weapons spread and nuclear war is much more likely.

Read more.