Russia could capture the entire Donetsk Region and pose a threat to the Dnipropetrovsk Region in the spring of 2025, writes Michael Clarke, a Fellow and a former Professor of Defense Studies at King’s College London, in an article for The Times.
“When Ukrainian troops crossed the border into the Kursk region more than three weeks ago in a dramatic counterattacking gambit, Russia responded, seizing the opportunity to stretch Ukrainian forces further by redoubling their efforts to take Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar in the Donbas region,” Clarke writes.
With winter on the horizon, Ukraine and Russia are vying to gain the upper hand. Starting in November, the onset of cold weather and rain is expected to slow military operations and decelerate any offensive maneuvers until the arrival of spring next year. “Ukrainian defenders are lacking in personnel, ammunition, and sleep. They are giving up positions, while Moscow seems prepared to sacrifice unlimited numbers of troops for Pokrovsk. As in Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka, Russian forces appear intent on leveling the city to take control of the ruins,” the text states.
After Donetsk, the next threat is the Dnipropetrovsk Region. “A modest strategic prize for Moscow in this battle would be capturing the transport hub of Pokrovsk and the heights in Chasiv Yar, and then using them as springboards for a larger offensive north and west to seize the rest of Donbas and threaten Dnipropetrovsk Region in the spring of next year,” Clarke explains.
Ukrainian strategists are likely aiming for Ukraine’s offensive into Russia’s Kursk Region to heighten political pressure on Putin, making the costs of his prolonged aggressive war more evident to the Russian public. “As appealing as this goal may be to Kyiv’s leaders, they may have to accept that in achieving it, they might lose Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. In such a case, both President Zelenskyy and his commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi could face their own political pressure,” the text notes.
Neither side expects the war to end on the battlefield this year; both are making efforts for a breakthrough in 2025. “Each hopes that this arm-wrestling match will improve their chances in future battles and convince their supporters around the world that military success is indeed within their grasp. Only one will prove to be right,” writes the analyst.
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