Senior British officer: Russia’s economy could collapse in 2025

Russia’s resource-based economy could face a collapse in 2025 due to Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and ongoing energy sanctions, according to Philip Ingram, a senior British military intelligence officer, reports London-based Express newspaper.

Ukrainian drones have successfully targeted Russian oil refineries, further weakening an already fragile Russian economy that economists say is overheating due to defense spending that is driving consumer inflation. 

This, coupled with Western sanctions on oil exports – Russia’s most vital resource – is raising significant concerns about the future of the Russian economy.

“It’ll hit Russian agriculture, but more importantly it’ll hit the Russian economy in such a way that Russia will have very real difficulties in continuing its fight against Ukraine,” Ingram says.

Profits from oil sales are the primary source of funding for the Kremlin’s war chest, he adds.

Unabated Ukrainian strikes affect the entire oil supply chain, not just storage.

“[It] impacts Russia’s ability through the whole chain of drilling, pumping, storing, refining, and exporting oil to a point where they’re going to rely more and more on as many exports as they can to empty their storage tanks to generate some capital,” he says.

Earlier, the German newspaper WELT reported that Ukraine is working to significantly disrupt Russian oil refineries in an attempt to cripple the Russian economy. In January alone, Ukraine’s defense forces struck nine Russian facilities.

The Russian military heavily relies on its oil and gas industry since it’s the main foundation of its economy.

Over the past 20 years, Moscow has invested heavily in expanding its refineries to not only export crude oil but also refine products into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. This sector is a crucial pillar of its economy, comprising about 20-25 percent of Russia’s yearly economic output and provides about 35-45 percent of revenue to state coffers.