Russia plans division of Ukraine and scenarios for global development until 2045

Russia has outlined a plan of how the global military-political situation will develop until 2045, which excludes Ukraine as a sovereign state, Interfax-Ukraine reports, citing Ukrainian intelligence sources.

“…It is possible that Russia will attempt to communicate this plan to the new U.S. presidential [administration] through foreign governments and representatives,” the text states.

Russians expect the territory of Ukraine to be divided into three parts: “new regions of Russia” – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions, and Crimea with Sevastopol, all under Russian control; a “pro-Russian state formation” covering Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr regions, as well as Kyiv; and “disputed territories” – Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Zakarpattia regions.

The document also outlines four main scenarios for the future of international relations: “U.S. and Western dominance”; “China emerging as the leading world power”; “a multipolar world with leading actors dividing spheres of influence”; and “regionalization/chaotization.”

Russia views the first two scenarios as unfavorable since they could only materialize if Moscow is defeated or the war with Ukraine is frozen.

“Russia anticipates victory over Ukraine and the development of the global situation in a way that benefits Moscow,” the report continues.

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) is aware of the document. 

“In fact, this document was prepared by the Russian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces around December last year,” said Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of HUR.

The document outlines both global and regional developments, as well as threats to Russia’s interests. Skibitskyi said that in order to maintain its economic, demographic, territorial, and military power, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin needs full control over Ukraine.

“As for the potential division of Ukraine, Russia’s strategic goal remains the complete occupation of our state,” he concluded.