Russia looks to rebound in Moldova, says Ukraine’s leading political analyst

Russia is preparing for a comeback in Moldova amid the start of the presidential election campaign scheduled for October 20, says Vitaliy Portnikov, a well-known Ukrainian journalist, political analyst, and commentator, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported .

Moscow ruled Moldova when it was a former Soviet republic. The Kremlin’s goal remains unchanged: to exert control over the post-Soviet space and maintain the other 14 former Soviet republics as “spheres of influence,” the journalist said.

Firstly, Russia’s strategic objectives, announced back in 2022, remain largely the same – specifically, to take control of southern Ukraine and “break through to [Russian-controlled] Transnistria,” Portnikov explains.

“This means it is not just about absorbing Ukraine, but also Moldova, and for this, Putin would need a pro-Moscow regime in [the Moldovan capital of] Chișinău.”

Secondly, from a tactical perspective, Russia would prefer to have a country on its border with Ukraine that is at least “neutral,” if not friendly to the Kremlin, which would not support Ukraine or seek to join the European Union. 

“This is why the popularity of the current Moldovan president, Maia Sandu – who, according to opinion polls, has every chance of retaining power – provokes such rage in the Kremlin,” the journalist said.

Understanding Sandu’s popularity compels Moscow to assist various forces aimed at altering Moldovan policy. 

“Russia has already realized that a pro-Russian candidate will not be able to defeat Maia Sandu in the presidential election. Therefore, for pro-Russian forces, the presidential election is merely preparation for the parliamentary elections,” Portnikov observed.

Moldova is a parliamentary republic. A head of state lacking support from lawmakers becomes a ceremonial figure, even if elected in a popular vote, the journalist said.

“We must prepare for attempts at a Russian comeback in Moldova now, as it threatens both national security and the European integration of Ukraine, as well as stability in this part of Europe,” Portnikov said.

Financial flows from Russia and any informational diversions stemming from there must be halted before it’s too late, the journalist said.