In the coming years, Russia plans to completely dismantle Belarus’s statehood.
This issue was discussed between Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin and self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting in Moscow on March 13, according to Belarusian opposition media.
Vitaly Portnikov, a well-known Ukrainian journalist, political commentator, analyst, and laureate of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine, states that the Kremlin plans to apply the same integration model to other former Soviet republics.
“The idea of restoring the union state, which would include all the entities that were part of it until 1991, probably excluding the Baltic republics (and only because these countries became NATO and EU members), remains the main political goal for the Russian president,” Portnikov says.
If Lukashenko fails to stop the ongoing destruction of Belarus’s statehood, he could become the first and last president of the republic, Portnikov warns.
His successor will have the same status as the president of Tatarstan or the head of Chechnya, with the only difference being that Belarus may retain its status as a subject of international law, solely to give Russia one more seat in the United Nations. This mirrors what happened with the USSR, Portnikov says.
“Joseph Stalin, when creating the UN, insisted that the Ukrainian SSR and Belarusian SSR, which had no real sovereignty, be included in the organization as sovereign states. Their delegations at UN General Assembly sessions voted according to directives from Moscow,” Portnikov says.
Ukraine, however, has become a major obstacle to Putin’s plan to restore the USSR.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin leader seeks to end the Russo-Ukrainian war by absorbing Ukraine in the coming years and establishing a puppet regime in the territory that cannot be occupied, similar to Lukashenko’s regime.
“Ukraine in that status, from the Kremlin’s point of view, should also join the new federal state on the same terms as Belarus. However, Russia would designate a portion of Ukraine’s territory to be officially independent but fully controlled by the Kremlin,” Portnikov says.
Currently, Putin is using the Russo-Ukrainian war as both a model and a threat to the leaders of other former Soviet republics.
“If you refuse to accept the Belarusian model, military actions will be launched against you, which will lead to your integration into a greater Russia,” Portnikov said while explaining the Kremlin’s strategy.
The current passive stance of the United States toward Ukraine only reinforces this narrative from the Kremlin, as Russia claims, “No Western help will come, just as it couldn’t help the Ukrainians,” Portnikov says.
March 25 marks Belarus’s Freedom Day. The Ukrainian World Congress stands proudly with the Belarusian people in their fight for freedom, democracy, and human dignity. This date not only honors the Belarusian People’s Republic of 1918 but also serves as a reminder of Belarus’s ongoing struggle for independence and fundamental rights.
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