Portnikov: Putin has already issued an ultimatum to Trump

by Vitaly Portnikov, a well-known Ukrainian journalist, political commentator, and analyst, laureate of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine

Source: Portnikov on YouTube

To congratulate Donald Trump on his inauguration and express his willingness for talks on a “comprehensive peace,” Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin called a special meeting with the permanent members of the Russian Security Council. However, Trump’s inaugural speech made no mention of Russia or the war in Ukraine. While it’s clear that the new U.S. president is not indifferent to the issue – during a pre-inauguration “victory rally,” Trump promised to end the Russo-Ukrainian war – he did not specify when or how.

Putin’s statements during his meeting with the Security Council members leave the new U.S. administration with limited options for maneuver. The Russian president emphasized that he does not seek a ceasefire but rather a “long-term peace.” To clarify what he meant by peace, Putin added, “Based on respect for the legitimate interests of all peoples living in this region.”

This reference to “peoples” harks back to Putin’s infamous speech on the night of Feb. 23-24, 2022, when Russian forces were already crossing Ukraine’s borders, and Russian planes were bombing Ukrainian cities. At that time, Putin did not speak of the Ukrainian people but instead mentioned some mythical “peoples of Ukraine,” whose self-determination, he argued, should be ensured through the special operation he declared.

Now it is clear what Putin meant by these “peoples.” He did not want to acknowledge that the Russian occupation is drawing lines of division within territories historically populated by Ukrainians. Instead, he hastily invented the “people of the DPR” (in Donetsk Oblast) and the “people of Kherson” to justify annexing Ukrainian regions. This was the task Putin would have likely assigned to a new, puppet leadership of Ukraine, had he succeeded in occupying Kyiv in three days: hold sham “referendums” in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, declaring “independence” and joining Russia.

The plan failed, but the desire remained. Now, Putin seeks to achieve this through negotiations with his new partner in America. The only change is his view of Ukraine’s statehood. In 2022, he still believed that Ukraine had the right to exist – but only within Russia’s sphere of influence and under terms defined by the Kremlin. Now, he vaguely speaks of a “region” where these “peoples” live, whose rights need to be protected. So when Nikolai Patrushev [Putin’s aide, former secretary of the Russian Security Council] stated that Ukraine would cease to exist by 2025, he wasn’t just expressing wishful thinking – he was echoing Putin’s own hopes.

It’s clear that President Donald Trump has his own vision for how the war should end. The American president has repeatedly stated that he seeks a situation where people on both sides of the front line stop dying. His team emphasized the importance of mutual compromise after his victory and during congressional hearings on his appointments. Trump’s logic, shared by his team, follows a simple, common-sense approach: if neither side can achieve its goals – Russia cannot destroy Ukraine, and Ukraine cannot restore its territorial integrity – then both sides should stop. The president’s task is to make this happen and to create conditions that prevent the conflict from reigniting.

However, this classic logic seems to hold little interest for Putin. He insists that he does not seek “a ceasefire with the goal of continuing the conflict,” but rather peace on his terms. The same terms that were in place in 2022, as though these three years, the failed “blitzkrieg,” and the military stalemate never happened. Putin remains confident that he will achieve his goal, whether Trump is involved or not.

It’s unclear if Trump noticed, during his inauguration celebrations, that Putin, within the first minutes of his presidency, presented him with an ultimatum, closing off any hopes for a quick resolution to the largest and bloodiest war of the 21st century.

But it seems that this is exactly what has transpired.