Portnikov on why Trump would arm Ukraine after all

If Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election, he will arm Ukraine despite his current ambiguous statements about halting aid to Kyiv, according to well-known Ukrainian journalist, political analyst, and commentator Vitaly Portnikov, as reported by Espreso.

Portnikov argues that a Trump victory would benefit Putin by strengthening the strategic relationship between Russia and China, potentially resulting in more explicit support for Moscow from Beijing.

“There is no significance to what the former American president says today or what advice he receives from those who wish to become his advisors and hold positions in his administration. Just as Ukrainians in 2019, hoping for some agreements with Vladimir Putin, were doomed to an alliance with the West and a war with Russia due to their electoral decision, Americans will also be destined for a fierce confrontation with Russia and China as a result of their electoral choice,” the text states.

Trump’s advisors propose a strategy where aid to Ukraine would be withheld if Kyiv refuses to engage in negotiations with Russia. “But if Russia refuses negotiations with Ukraine, then the plan is to arm Ukraine with far more weapons than it has received so far. This is seen as a way to facilitate negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv and end the war. However, neither Trump nor his advisors, it seems, can answer what happens if Russian President Vladimir Putin is not deterred by Ukrainian arms. He might continue the war with support from the People’s Republic of China,” writes Portnikov.

China would be much more interested in weakening a Trump-led America than a Biden-led one. The President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, understands that for Donald Trump, the Chinese threat is a much more existential problem than it is for Joe Biden. Thus, weakening American positions to prevent Americans from deploying their forces in the Asia-Pacific region will be an important political objective for China,” the text continues.

Trump’s tensions with China, in turn, lead to the strengthening of the Russia-China alliance, and the strengthening of this alliance increases Vladimir Putin’s willingness to continue fighting on the Ukrainian front, regardless of any proposals from the White House. “Thus, we arrive at the current configuration — a confrontation between democracy and dictatorship, even if Donald Trump and his electorate would prefer not to be involved. Moreover, I believe this confrontation will be much more intense and serious than during Biden’s presidency, and the risk of a third world war, where Trump, Xi Jinping, and Putin meet not at a summit but on the battlefield, is much more real than it seems to those who will vote for the Republican candidate in November 2024,” Portnikov concludes.