International relations professor outlines 4 scenarios of how Russo-Ukraine war could end

The war in Ukraine has four ways of ending: Ukraine joining NATO, securing international security guarantees, adopting armed neutrality, or having a European military presence in the country, according to Prof. Rajan Menon of the City College of New York. 

In an opinion piece for The New York Times, the international relations scholar and senior research fellow at Columbia University, said that “after more than 1,000 days of a war that has killed thousands, displaced millions and destroyed large parts of Ukraine, the end may be approaching.” 

Joining NATO would provide Ukraine the strongest security guarantees. However, the path to NATO membership is fraught with challenges due to political divisions among allied countries, according to Menom.

“Mr. Zelensky wants NATO membership, but this hope will probably remain unfulfilled,” he opined.

The international security guarantees option entails commitments from guarantor states as an alternative to NATO membership. 

This would involve creating a pact, with the U.S. and key European countries playing a central role. However, Menom warns that these guarantees could remain symbolic without real military protection.

The armed neutrality option means Ukraine would remain a non-aligned country, refraining from NATO membership but maintaining strong military forces for self-defense. Russia favors this option as it would prevent foreign troops from being stationed on Ukrainian soil.

“Armed neutrality would leave Ukraine more vulnerable compared with the other solutions,” Menom writes.

The final scenario involves a European military presence in Ukraine after a peace agreement. 

Discussions about this option are currently underway, especially in France and Poland. Such a development could enhance Europe’s role in regional stability. However, as Polish President Donald Tusk has stated, no final decision has been reached yet.

“Whatever is agreed, Ukraine will continue to adjoin a large and powerful neighbor that could attack again,” Menom concludes.

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