Germany is back: Berlin is betting on strength, not just diplomacy

On March 4, Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, announced that the future governing coalition, made up of the CDU/CSU conservatives and the Social Democrats, had agreed to a major boost in defense funding. 

The plan includes large-scale military modernization, rearmament, an expansion of the armed forces, the creation of a 500-billion euro infrastructure and defense fund over the next decade, and constitutional changes to exempt defense spending from debt limits. 

Germany’s current defense minister and likely future leader of the Social Democrats, Boris Pistorius, called the agreement “a historic day for Germany.” 

In her column, Ukrainian expert on foreign and security policy Svitlana Hutsal examines the historical changes that the European security and defense system are about to undergo.

Source: Dzerkalo Tyzhnia

The events unfolding on the path to a new government in Germany are set to have significant implications, not just for the country, but for all of Europe.

On March 18, the Bundestag legislature, with its outgoing composition, and on March 21, the Bundesrat, the upper house, approved constitutional amendments to relax the so-called “debt cap” – a mechanism designed to prevent the growth of national debt.

The need for these changes is driven primarily by a massive budget gap, particularly in defense and infrastructure, estimated to be around 1 trillion euros. Addressing this deficit became one of the key challenges in coalition negotiations between the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD).

Following the Feb. 23 parliamentary elections, a black-red coalition (named after the official colors of the respective parties) quickly became the most likely outcome. However, during Angela Merkel’s chancellorship, the CDU/CSU and SPD – once traditional political rivals – were forced to form a “grand coalition” three times due to significant policy differences, often reaching difficult compromises.

But now, the situation has changed drastically. After the elections, the SPD placed third with a historically low 16.4 percent, while the far-right “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) surged, doubling its results. This forced the CDU/CSU and SPD, despite their past differences, to form a coalition again in a bid to preserve democracy in the face of rising right-wing radicalism.

Coalition talks began on March 13, but, according to sources, progress has been slower than expected, especially for the Christian Democrats, led by Friedrich Merz, who is set to head the future government as prime minister. 

Despite this, there is a shared understanding that if the new government fails to address the economic crisis and pressing challenges in security, migration, and social policies, a far-right, anti-European force could take the reins in the next election cycle.

This looming threat explains the rush to pass constitutional amendments with the outgoing parliament. In the new Bundestag, which will convene on March 25, the AfD and the left party will hold a blocking minority, enabling them to veto such decisions.

Securing the necessary majority for these changes proved challenging, as constitutional amendments require approval from both chambers of parliament with at least two-thirds of the votes. To achieve this, the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats had to garner the support of the Alliance 90/The Greens. Although they were not invited to join the coalition, the Greens’ votes became crucial, leading to significant financial compromises as part of the planned reform.

During the vote in the Bundesrat, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) attempted to advance its agenda by defending the “debt cap.” It’s important to note that the previous coalition fell apart over this issue, leading to early elections in which the FDP failed to pass the electoral threshold and remained outside the Bundestag. As a result, on March 21, four of Germany’s 16 federal states, two of which have the FDP in their parliamentary majority, abstained from voting.

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