Europe on the brink of radical security shifts, says military analyst Kopytko

Donald Trump’s re-election and the sharp criticism of European countries from the new White House administration have raised doubts in Europe about the reliability of the current Euro-Atlantic security system. 

This has sparked major debate across the continent on the need for a new security architecture and whether European nations can defend themselves amid growing threats from Russia.  

At the heart of this shift are three key developments: the Franco-British peace plan for Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s proposal to rearm the EU, and Germany’s push for a significant increase in defense spending – the largest in Europe.  

On March 4, Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, announced that the future governing coalition, made up of the CDU/CSU conservatives and the Social Democrats, had agreed to a major boost in defense funding. 

The plan includes large-scale military modernization, rearmament, an expansion of the armed forces, the creation of a 500-billion euro infrastructure and defense fund over the next decade, and constitutional changes to exempt defense spending from debt limits.  

Germany’s current defense minister and likely future leader of the Social Democrats, Boris Pistorius, called the agreement “a historic day for Germany.”  

In his column, Ukrainian military analyst and former adviser to defense minister adviser Oleksii Kopytko explores the historic transformations now reshaping Europe’s security and defense landscape.

Source: Kopytko on Facebook

The noise from across Atlantic the ocean makes it hard to fully grasp the scale of the historic shifts unfolding in Europe.  

As the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany approaches, Berlin has decided to rearm itself. The future governing coalition is prepared to rethink policies that have shaped the country since the 1940s – and all of this is happening to widespread approval.  

I’ve long said that Europe can’t address its defense challenges without this step, but until now, openly discussing it was considered taboo.  

Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin’s aggression pushed Sweden and Finland into NATO, while U.S. President Donald Trump (who, notably, is half German) has effectively revived the Bundeswehr – Germany’s armed forces.  

Now, two long-avoided questions are inevitably surfacing:  

(1)  Should Germany become a permanent member of the UN Security Council?  

(2) Should Germany have nuclear weapons?  

The likely next chancellor has already raised the idea of a European “nuclear umbrella” [referring to Friedrich Merz’s proposal to replace U.S. nuclear warheads in Europe with French and British ones – ed.]. But it’s clear that France and the UK alone can’t shoulder this responsibility.  

If the U.S. continues scaling back its military presence in Europe, a debate on nuclear weapons for Germany will follow. 

At first, there will be cries of “Never! Impossible!” But sooner or later, the conversation will change.