Diane Francis: What’s next for Ukraine?

by Diane Francis, Editor-at-Large at the National Post, columnist at the Kyiv Post, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Eurasia Center and author, publisher on Substack

Source: Francis on Substack

The lighting was perfect, and the camera was rolling when Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy walked into the Oval Office on February 28 to sign a sweeping minerals deal. Lunch had been prepared to celebrate the signing. Both heads of state are seasoned television performers in their past and previous lives, and the “unwritten” script was that Zelenskyy would fawn and praise President Donald Trump for his efforts to stop the war. Instead, Zelenskyy raised the thorny issue that security guarantees needed to be in the deal, and the meeting suddenly went sideways. 

Vice President J.D. Vance accused Zelenskyy of being ungrateful, and Trump told him he had no bargaining position by saying, “You don’t have the cards.” The two verbally pummeled him, and Trump asked Zelenskyy to leave, noting to the camera, “This is going to be great television – I will say that,” and departed for Mar-A-Lago. The press speculated whether Zelenskyy was ambushed or simply didn’t take advice as to how to handle the volatile Trump. But it was obvious that Trump and Vance took sadistic delight in abusing him, and that, whatever the cause, it was a continuation of Trump’s hit series, “The Apprentice”. But this time, the leader of Ukraine – and Europe itself – was “fired”.

Bringing up the issue of security guarantees was hardly impertinent, given Russia’s serial invasions and massacre of Ukrainians. As one U.S. general put it: “Even the cleaning ladies in Kyiv know firsthand that Russia does not honor a ceasefire unless there are troops enforcing it”. To Zelenskyy, his aides, and Ukrainians worldwide, it is also a no-brainer. They know that the peace deal being considered by Trump – a cease-fire without any American security guarantees – would be tantamount to a surrender, considering Putin’s record of violations and invasions in 2014 and 2022.

The Kyiv Independent aptly described the significance: “Let this sink in: The president of a battered Ukraine, an ally of the U.S., became the first world leader in history to be kicked out of the White House. Not a dictator, not a disgraced politician – the president of Ukraine, a country suffering from the worst invasion in the 21st century. The country that the U.S. administration swore to bring peace to. After the meeting, Trump claimed that Zelenskyy didn’t want peace. That’s a dangerous lie.”

Cast off by Trump, Ukraine faces the possible cutoff in vital American military assistance, leaving Ukraine isolated and Russia emboldened. Trump has also neutered NATO and Europe’s defense, which is why the day after this leader-bashing took place, Britain and France sprung to action to fill the “security guarantee” vacuum that Ukraine needs if the US and Russia agree to a ceasefire. (Fortunately, Trump National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said the US would support such an effort without direct involvement.)

Thus, on March 2, the British Prime Minister, Keith Starmer, announced, “We’ve now agreed that the UK along with France and possibly one of two others will work on a plan to stop the fighting and we’ll discuss that plan with the United States.” A “coalition of the willing” would be formed – led by London and Paris – to provide security guarantees. “We have to bridge this. We have to find a way to work together because, in the end, we’ve had three years of bloody conflict. Now, we need to get to that lasting peace.”

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