by Diane Francis, Editor-at-Large at the National Post, columnist at the Kyiv Post, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Eurasia Center and author, publisher on Substack
Source: Kyiv Post
Kyiv repelled Russia’s attempt to capture Kharkiv, allies are “front loading” military and financial aid, and Crimea is becoming a death trap for Kremlin forces.
The Olympics in Paris provides a welcome distraction, but Ukraine is racking up significant wins in its struggle against Russia.
Kyiv repelled Russia’s attempt to capture its second largest city Kharkiv, has driven Russia’s Black Sea fleet from its 240-year-old naval base in Crimea, and placed the peninsula under siege. Vital shipping lanes for Ukrainian exports are reopened and Western weapons flow again into Ukraine.
Americans and other allies are “front loading” their military and financial aid to Ukraine in advance of a potentially disruptive November election outcome in the United States. Allies have also given Ukraine permission to use their weapons to destroy military targets inside Russia.
But the crippling of Crimea is key and a measure of Ukraine’s technological superiority. Back in 2022, Ukraine had virtually no navy and no manpower advantage but harnessed its brainpower to create sea and air drones to attack Crimea and save Odesa. Recently, an American military expert commented that “Crimea’s become a death trap for the Kremlin’s forces.”
This provides leverage to Kyiv in any negotiations, curbs Russian oil exports, impedes its military supply lines, and undermines Putin’s reign.
Russian residents abandon Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea fleet is now “functionally inactive” after military losses there, according to former UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps.
And more pain is on the way, said Ukraine’s top spy, Kyrylo Budanov, who hinted that attacking Crimea is more than simply a way to prevent the country from being landlocked. It is the preamble for a “serious operation“ – a secret military plan to physically reoccupy the peninsula.
Such an achievement would mark a major historical milestone.
The peninsula was conquered from the Ottomans by Czars centuries ago. In 1954, it was handed over by Moscow to Ukraine, but its naval base, Stevastopol, remained Russian territory.
In 2014, Putin seized it all back and staged a fake referendum to annex Crimea. But he has never won the hearts and minds of Ukrainians living there nor its Crimean Tatars, who represent 15 percent of its population.
Some have formed SOS Crimea, a clandestine group of thousands who have been helping Ukraine in the war. They resent being conscripted into the Russian army for this war, and the fact that Moscow has always mistreated them. If Russia pulls out of Crimea, said General Ben Hodges, former head of US European Forces, “it will be a huge step toward ending this war.”
In addition to military gains, here’s a review of recent developments and their significance.
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Cover: Shutterstock
