Danish military analyst Nielsen on Russia’s objectives in the war

Anders Nielsen, a military officer at the Royal Danish Defense College.

Source: excerpts made by Yigal Levin, an analyst and senior lieutenant in the Israel Defense Forces, from Nielsen’s video on YouTube.

Many still mistakenly believe that the Russo-Ukrainian war is about territory. However, the Russian leadership never intended to seize Ukrainian land; their true goal was always to turn the entire country into a state under their control. Ukraine would remain formally independent, but all political decisions would align with the Kremlin’s interests. While the war has shifted to eastern Ukraine, Russia’s objectives have remained unchanged. Territorial conquest is simply a tool to exert political pressure on Ukraine and the West.

The Russians will never be satisfied with a peace agreement that allows them to control only parts of Ukraine. If Ukraine loses some of its territory but secures strong security guarantees and becomes a successful, thriving nation, it would spell defeat for the Kremlin, as they launched this war to prevent exactly this outcome. Moreover, Russia doesn’t need to conquer all of Ukraine to claim victory. Their primary goal is to destabilize Ukraine and make it as vulnerable as possible to Russian influence.

There is much talk of peace and discussions about its details. 

However, many Western politicians still misunderstand the dynamics of the situation, believing that territorial issues are the most important and can be settled through negotiations, while everything else is secondary. In reality, many of the peace plans currently being proposed offer the Russians what they want, as they focus on the secondary issue of territories rather than ensuring Ukraine’s successful future with robust security guarantees. 

This could lead to a situation where the Russians negotiate terms that make it seem like they’ve won, while Western leaders, waving a peace agreement, fail to realize they’ve achieved nothing but handed Ukraine over to the Kremlin. Meanwhile, as long as the war continues, Russia is closer to defeat than ever, with its resources dwindling, and the coming year will mark a clear decline in Russia’s military capabilities.

Ukraine needs strong security guarantees because it simply cannot sustain its army at its current size in peacetime. It should not be forced to officially recognize the occupied territories as part of Russia, since Moscow will undoubtedly pressure it, claiming this is merely a semantic issue. 

Such an action would lead to a lack of trust in the government and division in policy. Ukraine must also ensure that no efforts are made to cancel punishments for war criminals, for the same reason. Furthermore, any security guarantees in a peace agreement must be fully upheld to help Ukraine become a successful country that can pursue an independent foreign policy.