Victory Chronicles-DAY 765

According to Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the key conditions for Ukraine’s victory over Russia in the war are preserving human life and the unity of Ukrainians. 

Syrskyi emphasized that while material things can be restored, the lost lives cannot be. He also stressed the importance of unity in society and the absence of political discord, stating that as long as Ukrainians remain united and strong in spirit, Russia will never be able to defeat them on the battlefield. 

Syrskyi urged every Ukrainian to understand that Russia denies them the right to exist, and therefore defeat and death are the same for Russia. He highlighted that now is the time for Ukraine to become a strong and united force. In addition, it was mentioned that the Armed Forces need to replenish and rest to ensure timely rotations.

The Coordination Center for the Treatment of Prisoners of War in Ukraine has announced that they have repatriated the bodies of 121 fallen defenders. The repatriation efforts have resulted in the return of the bodies of 12 defenders from the Luhansk front, 107 fighters from the Donetsk front, and 2 defenders from the Zaporizhzhia front. 

The bodies and remains will be delivered to designated state institutions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Law enforcement officials and forensic experts will then work on the identification of the bodies. Once identified, the bodies will be handed over to their respective families for proper burial. This repatriation process aims to honor and pay respect to those who have lost their lives in defense of Ukraine.

The partisan “ATESH” movement published evidence that Russia is preparing for defense in occupied Crimea and has moved about 31 tanks to Yevpatoria. “Recently, there has been an interesting trend in the accumulation of armored vehicles in Crimea. Thus, according to our information, about 31 tanks arrived in Yevpatoria not so long ago, which tells us that an entire tank battalion has been deployed,” the Crimean partisan movement ATES said in a statement.

The left bank of Kherson Oblast. This week, border guards and aerial reconnaissance, together with the Defense Forces discovered and destroyed a D-20 howitzer; an armored vehicle; a truck; 2 units of camouflaged vehicles. Fire was also inflicted on enemy shelters and personnel. This was reported by the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine

Ukraine is currently preventing Russian forces from making significant tactical gains along the entire frontline, but continued delays in US security assistance will likely expand the threat of Russian operational success, including in non-linear and possibly exponential ways. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview with CBS News published on March 28 that Ukrainian forces managed to hold off Russian advances through winter 2023–2024 and that Ukrainian forces have stabilized the operational situation. Ukrainian forces slowed the rate of Russian advances west of Avdiivka following the Russian seizure of the settlement on February 17, and Russian forces have only made gradual, marginal tactical gains elsewhere in Ukraine.

Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces are not prepared to defend against another major Russian offensive effort expected in May or June 2024, however. Russian forces will likely continue to maintain the tempo of their offensive operations through spring 2024 regardless of difficult weather and terrain conditions in order to exploit Ukrainian materiel shortages before the arrival of expected limited Western security assistance. Russian forces also likely aim to force Ukraine to expend materiel it could otherwise accumulate for defensive efforts this summer and possible counteroffensive operations later in 2024 or in 2025. Pervasive shortages may be forcing Ukraine to prioritize limited resources to critical sectors of the front, increasing the risk of a Russian breakthrough in other less-well-provisioned sectors and making the frontline overall more fragile than it appears despite the current relatively slow rate of Russian advances.

ISW assesses that Russian forces have seized 505 square kilometers of territory since launching offensive operations in October 2023, and Russian forces gained almost 100 more square kilometers of territory between January 1 and March 28, 2024, than in the last three months of 2023 (although this rate of advance may be due to a combination of Ukrainian materiel shortages and more conducive weather conditions in the winter than in the fall). This marginal increase in the rate of Russian advance is not reflective of the threat of Russian operational success amid continued delays in US security assistance, however. 

Materiel constraints limit how Ukrainian forces can conduct effective defensive operations while also offering Russian forces flexibility in how to conduct offensive operations, which can lead to compounding and non-linear opportunities for Russian forces to make operationally significant gains in the future. 

The opportunities to exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities will widen as materiel shortages persist and as Ukraine continues to grapple with how to address manpower challenges. The arrival of sufficient and regular Western security assistance and the resolution of Ukrainian manpower challenges would narrow these opportunities for Russian forces and provide Ukrainian forces with the ability to stop Russian forces from making even marginal tactical gains, to degrade Russian offensive capabilities, and to prepare for future counteroffensive operations to liberate more Ukrainian territory.

Junior Lieutenant Andrii Keidaliuk, with the call sign “Sarmat”, died on August 12, 2023 near the village of Robotyno, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The defender was fatally wounded as a result of a mortar attack. 

Andrii was 42 years old. He was from the village of Labushne, Odesa Oblast. He graduated from the Odesa State Academy of Technical Regulation and Quality. He lived in Odesa. He worked in the municipal guard. He was fond of hunting. 

“Everyone knew him as a brave, kind and compassionate person. A father, a brother, a son, a husband, an uncle, a friend who could always be approached for help or advice. He was a man who always radiated light, with a smile on his face in any situation. Andriy never gave up and went on to win. He was a brave, purposeful, intelligent and courageous warrior. He came to the rescue, never left his friends in trouble. He had severe contusions and remained at his position,” said Victoria Shepel, the niece of the deceased.

On February 24, 2022, the man joined the ranks of the territorial defense. Later, he joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He served in the military unit A7022, was a platoon commander of the security company. He was awarded the Order of Combatant, War Veteran, Unity and Freedom, and the medal “Unbreakable Heroes of the Russian-Ukrainian War”. Andrii was buried in his native village. He is survived by his mother, two sons, brother, sister and other relatives.

*Andrii’s story on the Heroes Memorial – a platform for stories about the fallen defenders of Ukraine.

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