Victory Chronicles
-DAY 468

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: On Tuesday, 6 June 2023, a large span on the Kakhovka Dam exploded, causing conditions for certain and massive flooding downstream. More on a fast-developing story in the Kherson section below. (Ukraine Front Lines)

Russian terrorists. The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam only confirms for the whole world that they must be expelled from every corner of Ukrainian land. Not a single meter should be left to them, because they use every meter for terror. It’s only… pic.twitter.com/ErBog1gRhH

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 6, 2023

• Ukrainian sources and Belarusian sources indicated that Belarus has been involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children. The Ukrainian Ministry of Reintegration reported on June 5 that the Belarusian Anti-Crisis Administration has recorded at least 2,150 deported Ukrainian children in Belarus since the start of the war. The Ukrainian Ministry of Reintegration noted that the “Dolphin Foundation” and the “Belarusian Foundation” have helped to facilitate the deportation of Ukrainian children and identified three “places of stay” in Minsk Oblast and one in Gomel Oblast.
• Iran has reportedly signed contracts with Moscow to provide about $1.74 million in ammunition to use in Ukraine. An anonymous source reportedly showed Sky News two arms contracts between Russia and Iran that showed samples of artillery and tank ammunition worth over $1 million dated September 14, 2022, and a contract for artillery shells and barrels for T-72 tanks and howitzers worth $740,000. 

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Smoke rising from Russian-on-Russian conflict near the Kharkiv-Bilhorod border seen from an abandoned Soviet-era airfield in Kharkiv Region. (National Review)

Above:  Air Force of Ukraine daily report.  On June 5 to 6, DESTROYED: (35) cruise missiles Kh-101/Kh-555

Above: Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with daily additions

General Staff on Facebook

ENEMY MISSILE AND DRONE STRIKES

Above:  The community market in the Kharkiv border town of Vovchansk Sunday. (National Review)

• Russia launched 35 cruise missiles in a night attack against Ukraine on June 6, all of which were shot down by air defense, Ukraine’s Air Force reported.  Russian forces used six Tu-95MS strategic bombers located in the Caspian Sea region. 
• The majority of the X-101/X-555 cruise missiles were aimed towards Kyiv. Kyiv City Military Administration reported that Ukrainian air defense intercepted close to 20 enemy aerial targets before they reached the capital.  A hospital, a dormitory, private houses and cars were damaged in the territory of the region as a result of the nighttime rocket fire.
• Over the past day, the enemy launched a missile attack on the city of Kharkiv, using 3 S-300 missiles. 
• The enemy carried out air strikes and heavy artillery bombardment on peaceful settlements in Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Humvees patrol near the Kharkiv-Bilhorod border. (National Review)

• The anti-Putin Russian Volunteer Corps claimed that it continues to operate in a Russian border settlement in Bilhorod Oblast as of June 5. Geolocated footage published on June 5 shows RDK personnel operating in Novaya Tavolzhanskaya (a small settlement about 3km from the Kharkiv-Belgorod Oblast border). The Freedom of Russia Legion, which conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast with the RDK, published footage showing LSR forces striking Russian tanks and armored vehicles near the Shebekino checkpoint, about 7km northeast of Novaya Tavolzhanskaya.
• A Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group unsuccessfully attempted to cross the Russian border into Ukraine near Zelene, 34km northeast of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupiansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove) and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).

DONETSK

Above:  Knights of Winter Brigade in western Donetsk.  The Ukrainian Armed Forces are slowly advancing on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut.  (Suspilne)

• Ukrainian forces made small advances north and southwest of Bakhmut on June 5. Ukrainian forces advanced 200 to 1,600 meters in the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), and 100 to 700 meters near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut). Mechanized Ukrainian forces advanced from 300 meters to one kilometer in the direction of Zaliznyanske (13km north of Bakhmut) and Bohdanivka (8km northwest of Bakhmut). 
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on June 5. Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions near Nevelske (17km northwest of Donetsk City) and Marinka (20km west of Donetsk City). The Russian MoD reported that Chechen “Akhmat” Special Forces continued to conduct offensive actions near Marinka.
• Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and made further limited tactical gains on June 5. Geolocated footage published on June 4 and 5 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced southwest of Velyka Novosilka and within 1.5km northwest of Storozheve (5km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).

ZAPORIZHZHIA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: Map of Kakhovka dam and the upstream Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The plant draws on the Kakhovka reservoir for water used in its cooling system. As of Tuesday morning, there is no immediate danger to the enemy-occupied plant’s cooling system. (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) 

Worst case model of a dam break at the Nova Kakhovka dam

Video: Last October, Lars Wilderang published a simulated worst-case flood scenario for the Khakovka Dam break up

The IAEA is aware of reports of damage at #Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam; IAEA experts at #Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant are closely monitoring the situation; no immediate nuclear safety risk at plant.#ZNPP

— IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ (@iaeaorg) June 6, 2023

• At about 7am on Tuesday morning, Southern Command confirmed that occupiers blew up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydropower Station, destroying 11 of 28 spans of the dam.   The Kherson governor predicted that the flood would reach peak levels at approximately noon Ukraine time on Tuesday. Most of the lowlands are located on the southern left bank of the river in enemy-controlled territory.  
• About 16 thousand people and 80 population settlements on the northern right bank under Ukrainian control are at risk of flooding.  Regional authorities including National Police, State Emergency Services and Ukrzaliznytsia have been mobilized to evacuate people as quickly as possible. One Kherson Oblast resident posted on social media that the enemy is shelling people trying to evacuate. “Russians opened mortar fire as people prepared to evacuate from Ostriv. They are terrorizing us.”
• Southern Command characterized the terrorist act as a desperate attempt to stop the coming counteroffensive.  The enemy is panicking in southern Ukraine and has the intention to evacuate leaving nothing but maximal destruction behind. 
• The Kakhovka Hydropower Station and Dam were two of the first targets of invading forces in February 2022.  The dam bridge was used as a primary escape route when Ukraine took back northern Kherson last fall. The hydroelectric power station provides electricity to over 3 million people in Ukraine. The destruction of the dam also destroyed the water canal that transports fresh water to Crimea. 
• All six nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are currently shut down, but still require water to dissipate heat from the radioactive fuel remaining in the reactor cores, according to a former minister of energy of Ukraine. The cooling systems can operate for some time on a closed loop, circulating water within the station rather than drawing cooling water from the reservoir, he said.
• Russian forces are transferring the Black Sea Fleet’s logistics centers from Sevastopol, Crimea, to Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia due to widespread logistical and ammunition provision issues in occupied Crimea. Recent strikes on Russian concentration areas, logistics hubs, and transportation assets in southern Ukraine are causing anxiety and operational hardship for the enemy’s Black Sea operations.
• On June 4, Ukrainian forces destroyed 18 Russian anti-aircraft guns and five ammunition storage areas in southern Ukraine.  A Zaporizhzhia Oblast occupation official claimed that Ukrainian forces have recently started to target Russian rear areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast more heavily, particularly with Tochka-U and Storm Shadow missiles.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on June 5 that Kremlin security services recently transferred agents to occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast to work with “youth collaborators” to identify underground partisan networks.  They are raiding private homes in occupied Kherson Oblast to identify partisan activists.

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