Victory Chronicles
-DAY 450

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: The world’s most powerful democratic decision makers are in Hiroshima, Japan, to discuss how to protect democracy in Ukraine and Taiwan. Pictured (left to right) Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, Japanese PM Fumio Kishida, US President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, UK PM Rishi Sunak, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. (CNN)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• The former chief justice of Ukraine’s Supreme Court was formally arrested Thursday, charged with graft in a public office, accused of accepting a bribe of $1.8 million to influence a case in favor of a Ukrainian oligarch who is currently fighting extradition in France. Officers discovered $1.8 million in cash at his home and office. At least three more Supreme Court judges have been implicated in a growing bribery case, prosecutors say. Transparency International Ukraine gave the case high marks, but said there is more work to do to be serious about uprooting corruption in high places.
• The US Pentagon announced that a change in the basis for valuing military aid sent to Ukraine has calculated an additional $3 billion available for Ukraine support this year. Congress approved $14.5 billion for fiscal 2023 to be used under presidential drawdown authority in which the president can authorize the transfer of existing weapons stocks instead of waiting for the manufacture of new. The accounting change replaces replacement value with market value. Fiscal 2023 funds for Ukraine are running low while the Biden administration is hesitant to ask Congress for more as a loud block of pro-Russian Republicans threaten to send the US into debt default if aid to Ukraine isn’t cut.
• The United Kingdom will ban the import of Russian-origin diamonds, copper, aluminum and nickel in legislation to be introduced later this year.  London is one of the world’s biggest diamond trading centers and the Russian diamond industry was worth $4billion in 2021.  The UK is also preparing new individual designations targeting an additional 86 entities from the military-industrial complex and key revenue streams such as energy, metals and shipping. To date, the UK has sanctioned over 1,500 entities and frozen over $22.3 billion in Russia-origin assets.  The EU says it will soon follow with a ban on Russian diamond trading.
• In light of the Kremlin’s new terror campaign on Kyiv, it is hard to understand why Moscow spends hundreds of millions of dollars to bomb civilian infrastructure while leaving militarily strategic targets undisturbed.  We think it must be connected with living in a fact-free world of propaganda and with an innate nihilistic sadism.  Ukraine’s National Security Secretary Danilov tweeted:

“Kyiv remains Putin’s maniacal and unattainable goal…Senseless and super-expensive for the Russian Federation attacks on the capital are needed by the Kremlin to raise the degree of patriotic hysteria inside the country. In Russia, despair and disappointment with the authorities is developing against the background of the failure of the offensive and failures at the front.”

• Russians are committing all remaining forces to the front including Wagner, criminals, combat army reserves, territorial troops, and conventional units mostly staffed with mobilized servicemen.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian forces are coercing Russian veterans of the Afghanistan war to undergo military training in occupied Kerch Raion, Crimea. Published footage shows a Russian Afghanistan veteran serving in the Avdiivka area. Russian forces are training Russian prisoners in training camps in Rohove and Mozhnikivka, Luhansk Oblast. Residents of the Russian Far East began receiving recruitment messages to join the 25th Combined Arms Army, a unit that participated in the 1945 Soviet-Japanese War and was disbanded in 1957.
• During the day of May 18, Ukrainian Air Force launched 7x air strikes on troops and military equipment of the adversary, intercepted 21x cruise missiles and 8x enemy UAVs. Ukrainian missile and artillery troops struck 1x concentration of weapons, 1x ammunition depot, 3x artillery units at their firing positions, 1x enemy air defense system, 7x electronic warfare stations, and 1x radar station.

US-supplied Mi-17V-5 operating with a pair of Ukrainian Mi-24P Hind gunships, Donetsk Oblast. pic.twitter.com/xFqyRj8EYo

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 18, 2023

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Planting sunflowers around the pieces of an enemy tank outside of Kyiv. (New York Times)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 201,760 (+660)
• Tanks, 3,777 (+4)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,377 (+4)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 3,210/564 (+12/1)
• Anti-aircraft systems, 319 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 308/294 (0)
• Unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,769 (+10)
• Cruise missiles, 1,011 (+21)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 6,083 (+10)
• Special equipment, 419 (+1)

GENERAL STAFF STRIKES ON CIVILIANS

Above: Invaders destroyed housing, farms and power lines in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk, overnight. (Dnipropetrovsk ODA)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 450th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• During the day of May 19, the russian federation once again launched a massive missile and air strike against Ukraine. During the day of May 18, the adversary launched 39x missile and 39x air strikes, as well as 50x MLRS attacks.
• The likelihood of further missile and air strikes across Ukraine remains very high.
• The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka axes. 29x combat engagements took place in the above areas of the frontline during the day of May 18. The fiercest fighting is for Bakhmut and Mar’inka.
• Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: during the day of May 18, the adversary fired mortars and artillery at the vicinities of settlements of Leonivka (Chernihiv oblast), Studenok, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Pavlivka, Basivka, Myropillya, Mezenivka (Sumy oblast), Starytsya, Synel’nykove, Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, Nesterne, Budarky (Kharkiv oblast).
• Kup’yans’k axis: the adversary fired artillery and mortars at Kam’yanka, Kolodyazne, Fyholivka, Novomlyns’k, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Masyutivka, Lyman Pershyi, Tabaivka, Berestove (Kharkiv oblast), and Stel’makhivka (Luhansk oblast).
• Lyman axis: The invaders launched air strikes in the vicinity of the settlement of Bilohorivka. Makiivka, Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, and Spirne (Donetsk oblast) were shelled with artillery.
• Bakhmut axis:  The occupiers launched air strikes in the vicinities of settlements of Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, and Predtechyne. Vasyukivka, Zaliznyans’ke, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, and Pivnichne (Donetsk oblast) came under enemy fire.
• Avdiivka axis: the adversary conducted offensive operations towards the settlements of Sjeverne and Pervomais’ke, to no success. During the day of May 18, the invaders launched air strikes in the vicinities of Novokalynove and Avdiivka. The occupant forces fired artillery at the settlements of Novokalynove, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Tonen’ke, Pervomais’ke, Karlivka, and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
• Mar’inka axis: the troops of Ukrainian Defenders Forces repelled numerous enemy attacks in the vicinity of the city of Mar’inka, as well as an attack towards Novomykhailivka. At the same time, the enemy continues to destroy settlements along the line of contact, firing artillery at Krasnohorivka, Mar’inka, and Pobjeda (Donetsk oblast).
• Shakhtars’ke axis: The occupant forces launched air strikes near Zolota Nyva and Velyka Novosilka. The invaders shelled settlements near the line of active combat, including Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Novoukrainka, and Shakhtars’ke.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: The adversary launched an air strike on the settlement of Novopil’ (Donetsk region), shelled various settlements, including Burlats’ke (Donetsk oblast), Ol’hivs’ke, Charivne, Bilohir’ya, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka, Stepove, Kam’yans’ke, Plavni (Zaporizhzhia oblast), and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Employees of a kindergarten in Kharkiv created a hand-made fairy tale garden for pupils from cement and clay. Seventy vignettes are waiting to welcome little scholars after Victory.  (RedPost)

Video: In Kharkiv, citizens dressed in camo crashed a soviet-era statue of Russia’s military patron, early medieval Novgorod Prince Nevsky. 

Map via ISW

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 18.  Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk), Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove), and Nevske (19km northwest of Kreminna).
• Russian forces are recruiting additional Army Combat Reserve and “Storm-Z” formations composed of criminals to operate in the Lyman direction, signaling that Russian forces are critically exhausted.

DONETSK

Above: Football club Shakhtar Donetsk greeted fans on Vyshyvanka Day with a promise to return to their native Donetsk City soon. (XSports)

Above: Ukrainian forces seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18. The Ukrainian military says these operations are a continuation of the localized counter-attacks Ukrainian forces have been conducting for some days and do not reflect the start of a major new operation. (Photo: Radio Svoboda)

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces are forced to respond to Ukrainian actions around Bakhmut, including by transferring Russian Airborne elements to Bakhmut’s flanks to defend against the Ukrainian advances. Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the Bakhmut area, very likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on May 18. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations towards Sieverne (5km west of Avdiivka) and Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka). Footage published on May 18 purportedly shows DNR artillery operating near Avdiivka and near Nevelske (15km southwest of Avdiivka).
• When a Kremlin propaganda puppet says that parts of Ukraine are pro-Russian (think Crimea), remind them that this is how it happens.  Ukraine’s Mariupol government-in-exile reports that the occupiers are housing Ukrainians in crowded dormitories while they build new housing to repopulate Mariupol with Russians.

Above: Vyshyvanka Day in Bakhmut, 2021. (Pani Pozheve Ihryste)

The battle for Bakhmut has been going on for nine and a half months. The city, once home to 70,000 people, has now been almost completely destroyed by the Russians.

See for yourself. pic.twitter.com/ok79wNVzpx

— UNITED24.media (@United24media) May 18, 2023

ZAPORIZHZHIA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above:  Satellite image taken on May 3 shows water cresting the Kakhovka Dam.  (Photo: New York Times)

Ukrainian Command South stated that Russian forces are trying to accelerate evacuation even before the counteroffensive by creating a man-made disaster on the banks of the Dnipro River. Russian military forces have flooded their own positions on the reservoir banks including coastal areas they themselves mined. Russian forces must steal boats from locals to perform operations on the Dnipro delta islands.

The dam has been continually mismanaged by Russians since they took control of the territory in Spring 2022.  Last winter, the reservoir was dangerously low, threatening the public water supply and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant’s cooling system.

Above:  Working to repair the Epicenter building materials store in Kherson where the enemy murdered 23 civilians on May 3.  (New York Times)

Map via ISW

The Russian government announced that the use of the Kerch Strait Bridge for heavy vehicles is indefinitely delayed, citing security concerns from “constant provocations” and the fact that a ferry service works 24/7.  Last we heard, the line for the ferry is several days long.