Victory Chronicles
-DAY 448

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: Suspilne reported on how Ukraine’s Supreme Court Plenum assembled on Tuesday to vote no confidence and remove the former chief justice who was arrested Tuesday for corruption.  Ukraine’s judicial system was never cleansed of the post-soviet corruption legacy. What the national anti corruption agency called “large-scale corruption in the Supreme Court” is a big sticking point in Ukraine’s accession to the EU. (Photo: New York Times)

Above: The democratic world was heartened by Turkiye’s announcement of a runoff election between the 20-year incumbent Erdogan – who has strayed from human rights and democracy – and challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Turkiye straddles many worlds, geographically, culturally and politically, but looks firm in its commitment to fair elections.  Mr Kilicdaroglu supports a secular state and better relations with Europe and North America.  (Photo: Suspilne)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• The Russian Federal Security Service, successor to the KGB, proposed legislation giving it power to conduct searches without court involvement anytime the suppression organization calls a situation urgent or threatening to Russian security.
• A Russian deputy minister claimed that Russia produced more tanks in the first quarter of 2023 than in all of 2022 and that the total volume of production of military products will increase by four times in 2023. A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russia’s sole tank factory UralVagonZavod is producing an upgraded version of the T-72 that should soon appear on the frontlines.
• The same busy Russian deputy minister claimed a robust restoration of the industrial base in occupied territories. The Kremlin has established an “Industrial Development Fund” for four temporarily occupied Ukrainian oblast.  A deputy minister claimed that over 700 industrial enterprises and 1,000 industries are already operating in occupied Ukraine. Efforts are continuing to create a free-economic zone in occupied areas, which would be an open invitation to pure russian-style corruption.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above:  “Russian self-propelled artillery, neutralized by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” (Radio Svoboda)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 200,590 (+610)
• Tanks, 3,771 (+9)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,365 (+17)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 3,166/562 (+16/0)
• Anti-aircraft systems, 318 (+2)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 308/294 (0)
• Unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,748 (+16)
• Cruise missiles, 982 (+9)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 6,067 (+19)
• Special equipment, 417 (+7)

GENERAL STAFF STRIKES ON CIVILIANS

Above: The Kremlin’s missile arsenal: (Top) Kh-47 Kinzhal supersonic ballistic missile on a MiG-31K, (Middle) Kalibr cruise missile, (Bottom) Iskander-K short range ballistic missiles on a system loader. 

Over the night of Monday to Tuesday May 15-16, the invaders attacked Ukraine from the north, south, and east with 18 missiles from air, sea and land bases including six Kinzhals launched from MiGs towards Kyiv, nine Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea and three Iskanders launched from land.  Ukraine said on Tuesday it shot down all six Kyiv-bound Kinzhal missiles. Ukraine first shot down a Kinzhal during a May 4 attack on Kyiv.

Video: This video released by Russian media is the source of missile controversy! It shows air defenses active in Kyiv with a purported explosion on the ground. The Kremlin claimed that the explosion is proof that one of its impossible to intercept, invincible, unstoppable, next-gen missiles destroyed a Patriot missile defense system in Kyiv. Most likely, the billion-dollar Patriot system was damaged, but is still operative.

Above: on Tuesday, Mykolaiv was hit with two Kalibr missiles. (Maria Avdeeva)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 448th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• According to updated information yesterday, the enemy launched 31 missile strikes, in particular, 2 S-300 missiles on the civilian infrastructure of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, and 2 Kalibr missiles on the civilian infrastructure of Mykolaiv.
• Russian occupiers carried out 57 airstrikes and launched 96 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas. For missile strikes, the enemy used 6 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, 13 Kalibr cruise missiles (2 missiles exploded in the air) and 10 ground-based missiles (S-400, Iskander-M), 25 of them were destroyed by our defenders.
• The civil infrastructure was destroyed. In particular, as a result of Russian shelling of the settlements of Dvorichna, Vovchansk and Tyshchenkovka in the Kharkiv region, civilians were killed and wounded, residential private houses, a hospital and other civil infrastructure were destroyed.
• The probability of further missile and air strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high.
• The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Lymansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdiyivskyi and Marinsky directions – 55 combat clashes took place last day. Bakhmut and Maryinka will continue to be at the epicenter of hostilities.
• On the Siversky and Slobozhansky directions, the enemy carried out mortar and artillery attacks on the settlements of Zaliznyi Myst, Gremyach, and Muravyi of the Chernihiv region; Romashkove, Stari Virky, Iskriskivshchyna, Volfyne, Kindrativka, Sadky, Zapsilya, Myropyllya, Velika Rybytsa in the Sumy region, as well as Kozacha Lopan, Hoptivka, Lukyantsi, Gatyshche, Pletenivka, Nesterne, Krugle, Zemlianka, Staritsa and Budarky in the Kharkiv
• In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the districts of Masyutivka in the Kharkiv region and Novoselivskyi and Stelmakhivka in the Luhansk He carried out airstrikes in the areas of Budarka, Vilshana, Kislivka, Kotlyarivka and Tabaivka settlements of the Kharkiv region.
• In the Lyman direction, during the day, the enemy carried out offensive actions in the area of Belogorivka, Luhansk He carried out airstrikes near Beilohorivka in Luhansk region and Spirny, Siversk and Chervony in Donetsk region. Makiivka, Nevske, Belogorivka of the Luhansk region and Verkhnokamianske, Torske and Spirne of the Donetsk region were hit by artillery fire.
• In the Avdiiv region, the enemy continues to destroy the infrastructure of populated areas. He carried out airstrikes on Avdiivka and Vodyan, shelled the settlements of Novokalynove, Berdychi, Stepove, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske and Karlivka in the Donetsk
• In the direction of Shakhtarsk during the day, the enemy carried out airstrikes in the areas of Vugledar and Velika Novosilka. Shelled with artillery, in particular, Novomykhailivka, Paraskoviivka, Vugledar, Prechistivka, and Novoukrayinka of the Donetsk

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: The Kharkiv Oblast Administration reported that the invaders damaged/destroyed more than sixty scary post offices in the Kharkiv region.  The national postal service is working hard to restore postal services to liberated territory.  They have reopened 75 stationary offices and use 18 mobile units to cover security-challenged areas.  (Photo: Tribun)

🇺🇦Evacuation of animals from war zones in #Ukraine by Animal Rescue Kharkiv. Today they were followed by a film crew from Kyiv documenting their rescues❤️ pic.twitter.com/NvMKJzRzQb

— Sofia Ukraini (@SlavaUk30722777) May 17, 2023

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued limited assaults along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 16. Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the vicinity of Masyutivka (about 13km northeast of Kupyansk) and Novoselivske (about 16km northwest of Svatove). Geolocated Russian footage published on May 15 showed Russian drones striking Ukrainian positions east of Masyutivka.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations in the Kreminna-Lyman direction on May 16. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Bilohorivka (about 13km south of Kreminna).
• Ukrainian Severodonetsk Mayor Oleksandr Stryuk indicated that the May 15 attack on a senior occupation official in Luhansk City may have been conducted by fellow occupation actors and not a Ukrainian partisan action.

DONETSK

Above: General Staff

Above: Bakhmut (DW)

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces are apparently committed to reinforcing their offensive of Bakhmut instead of preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russian sources reported that the enemy is moving forces from other sectors to Bakhmut and that four Russian battalions have redeployed to the flanks around Bakhmut to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs. The movement of Russian forces from other sectors to Bakhmut looks like an inflexible obsession to take Bakhmut regardless of the situation on the ground.
• Ukrainian forces have liberated roughly 20 square kilometers of territory around Bakhmut in recent days. At the same time, Russian forces have made marginal gains within Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces are continuing to use the concept of “active defense” in conducting counterattacks near Bakhmut. The main objective of the Ukrainian defensive operation in the Bakhmut area is to exhaust Russian forces in the area. Geolocated footage published on May 16 of Ukrainian positions in southwestern Bakhmut suggests that Ukrainian forces have recently made limited gains in the city itself. Geolocated footage published on May 16 indicates that Ukrainian forces made marginal gains east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut).
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front on May 16. Geolocated footage published on May 15 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal advances within Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka). Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Avdiivka and Marinka.

ZAPORIZHZHIA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above:  The Center for European Policy Analysis took a look at the importance of liberating Crimea. “Crimea, the symbol of Russia’s new imperialism, should now become a symbol of its defeat. Otherwise Ukraine, and the wider Black Sea region, will never know peace.”

Map via ISW

• Russian forces are continuing to panic about maintaining their positions in the east bank Kherson Oblast ahead of anticipated Ukrainian counter offensives. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that there are ”witch hunts” among Russian troops operating in Kherson Oblast because many accuse each other of exposing Russian positions to Ukrainian forces.
• Russian forces launched four KAB-500 bombs from four Su-35 fighter aircraft at Beryslav and Kizomys on the west bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces also shelled the west bank Kherson Oblast 86 times, and reportedly used incendiary munition to target Kherson City.
• Ukrainian state nuclear company Enerhoatom reported that Russian forces are intensifying security measures at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and are increasing military presence at the facility. There are over 2,500 Russian servicemen at the ZNPP. Enerhoatom reported that Russian forces are introducing new rules for ZNPP employees such as prohibiting them from using cell phones, banning communication among personnel and restricting movements on the territory of the ZNPP in an effort to hide their use of the ZNPP as a military base.