Victory Chronicles
-DAY 446

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: Rail line repair crews work 24/7 to keep the trains running on time, shown in Kharkiv Sunday.  Over the weekend, Ukrzaliznytsia announced delays for trains running through Vinnytsia, Khmelnytsky and Ternopil due to enemy shelling. (Suspilne)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• Ukraine will be watching the G7 meeting in Japan closely this week.  Leaders have pledged to turn the screws of the Kremlin by expanding and tightening sanctions.  The targets include evasion via third party intermediaries, capacity for energy production and any trade that supports Russia’s military.
• Germany announced a new military aid package for Ukraine totaling $2.95 billion, almost doubling its commitment since the start of the war.
• The United Kingdom will send hundreds of new long-range attack drones with a range of over 200 km to Ukraine, the government said on Monday after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrived in the country for talks with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. “Today the Prime Minister will confirm the further UK provision of hundreds of air defence missiles and further unmanned aerial systems including hundreds of new long-range attack drones with a range of over 200km,” the government said in a statement. “These will all be delivered over the coming months as Ukraine prepares to intensify its resistance to the ongoing Russian invasion.”
• European gas prices, which reached 100 euros per Mw-h at this time last year, fell to 35 euros per MWh – the lowest level since the summer of 2021.  Due to the mild winter, European gas storage is currently at 60% capacity and is no longer dependent on Russian gas.  As the market works to book storage space, Ukraine’s gas transmission operator said, “The interest of European traders in the Ukrainian gas infrastructure is growing due to the record seasonal spread. Service customers have already started booking guaranteed capacity for the 3rd quarter of 2023.
• Meanwhile, Moscow agreed to Turkiye’s request to delay $600 million in gas payments until 2024. In exchange, the Kremlin wants Turkiye to greenlight the construction of a Russian gas hub in Turkiye to divert former Nord Stream flows.
• Russia is developing a pattern of regular drone and missile strikes focused on Kyiv and military targets in Ukraine’s rear.  This is likely a new strategy to degrade Ukrainian counterattack capabilities. However, the Kremlin significantly reduced stockpiles with its civilian bombing campaign and conducts limited strikes to conserve remaining stocks. Instead, the enemy is relying on swarms of Iranian-made Shahed drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. ISW assesses that the diminished effectiveness of these strikes is not significantly constraining Ukrainian capabilities writ large.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: It was raining cottony Kremlin military aviation on Sunday.  A strike group of three planes and two helicopters went down in Bryansk, Russia, on its way to hit Ukrainian targets with guided bombs.  A Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson said, “It’s a black day for Russian aviation.” Apparently, it was a self-imposed failure cluster by Moscow’s own air defense system. The spokesperson concluded, “It’s nice to read such news from the enemy.” Russian losses caused by Russians not included in the daily tally below. (Ukrainian Defense Ministry)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 199,460 (+580)
• Tanks, 3,759 (+3)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,336 (+11)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 3,137/562 (+21/0)
• Anti-aircraft systems, 316 (+2)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 308/294 (0)
• Unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,720 (+24)
• Cruise missiles, 973 (+3)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 6,034 (+16)
• Special equipment, 407 (+3)

GENERAL STAFF STRIKES ON CIVILIANS

Above: Shelling civilians in Kurakhove, Donetsk, 40 km due west of Donetsk City.  (Hromadske)

Above: Humanitarian warehouse in Ternopil. (New Voice of Ukraine) 

Above: Humanitarian aid warehouse in Luhansk. (Mariia Kramarenko)

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14m launching Shahed and other drones of which Ukrainian forces destroyed 25. Russian forces launched an unspecified number of Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea. Ukrainian forces shot down three Kh-101/555/55 missiles. Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Ternopil and Mykolaiv cities as well as Kharkiv City and Zolochiv in Kharkiv Oblast with S-300 missiles.

Glory to Ukraine!
The 446th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Last night, russian terrorists attacked Ukraine with Shahed kamikaze drones yet again. Information on the aftermath of this attack is currently being updated.
• During the day of May 14, the adversary launched 11x missile attacks, in particular on the cities of Kharkiv, Kostyantynivka, and the village of Zolochiv. In addition, the invaders launched 41x air strikes and 74x MLRS attacks at the positions of Ukrainian troops and various settlements. The attacks caused civilian casualties, damage and destruction of private housing and other civilian infrastructure.
• The likelihood of missile and air strikes across Ukraine remains high.
• The adversary continues to focus its main efforts on Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mar’inka axes, with 46x combat engagements taking place. Bakhmut, and Mar’inka remain at the epicenter of the fighting.
• The invaders shelled Hirs’k, Leonivka, Popivka (Chernihiv oblast), Volfyne, Sadky, Mohrytsya (Sumy oblast), Oleksandrivka, and Starytsya (Kharkiv oblast) with mortars and artillery.
• Kupyansk axis: The invaders launched air strikes in the vicinity of settlements of Vil’shana and Kyslivka. The adversary fired artillery and mortars at Kam’yanka, Topoli, Krasne Pershe, Fyholivka, Novomlyns’k, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Kindrashivka, Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast), and Stel’makhivka (Luhansk oblast).
• Lyman axis: The adversary launched air strikes in the vicinities of settlements of Yampil’, Dibrova, Bilohorivka, Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, and Spirne. Makiivka (Luhansk oblast), Bilohorivka, Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Spirne, and  Berestove (Donetsk oblast) were shelled with artillery.
• Bakhmut axis: The invaders launched air strikes near Ivanivske and Stupochky. Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Chervone, Kostyantynivka, Druzhba, Pivnichne, Toretsk, Shumy (Donetsk oblast) suffered from enemy shelling.
• Avdiivka axis: the adversary launched air strikes in the vicinities of Novokalynove and Avdiivka, shelled Stepove, Lastochkyne, Avdiivka, Tonen’ke, Netaylove, Pervomais’ke, and Karlivka (Donetsk oblast).
• Mar’inka axis: Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobjeda, and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast) were shelled by the enemy.
• Shakhtars’ke axis: The invaders shelled the settlements of Vuhledar, Novoukrainka, and Prechystivka.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: The invaders launched air strikes in the vicinities of settlements of Kizomys and Stanislav (Kherson oblast). Also, russian forces shelled around 40x settlements, including Vremivka, Novopil’ (Donetsk oblast), Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Bilohir’ya, Mala Tokmachka, Kam’yans’ke (Zaporizhzhia oblast), Nikopol’ (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), Zolota Balka, Vesele, L’vove, Antonivka, Dniprovs’ke, Kizomys (Kherson oblast), and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: It looks like long-range rockets are hitting targets in temporarily-occupied Luhansk. The Russian MoD claimed that tricky Ukraine used a combination of decoy missiles and precision British Storm Shadow missiles to hit barracks and factories. (Visegrad 24)

Explosion in occupied Luhansk.
Previously: the location of the russians in the Luhansk Higher Military Aviation School of Navigators. pic.twitter.com/ua4cMcxygu

— Ukraine Front Lines (@EuromaidanPR) May 15, 2023

Map via ISW

• Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Svatove line on May 14. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka (12km northeast of Kupyansk), Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk), Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove), and on the eastern outskirts of Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove).

DONETSK

Above: Defenders of freedom. (New York Times)

Maps via ISW

• Ukrainian forces captured over 10 Russian positions on the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut over the course of the day on May 14. Ukraine’s main goal in Bakhmut is to destroy Russian concentration areas and encircle the city, not to conduct frontal assaults.
• Russian forces have not made additional confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut as of May 14. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations within Bakhmut itself; within 9km northwest of Bakhmut near Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, and Khromove; and within 14km southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora and Predtechyne.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front on May 14. Ukrainian forces repelled numerous Russian assaults near Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka).

Video: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief discusses the strategy behind the defense of Bakhmut.  The world stands in awe and wonder. 

We Had No Other Choice: Interview with Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhnyi#UkraineWar pic.twitter.com/W4Xq7MRcXM

— UATV English (@UATV_en) May 15, 2023

ZAPORIZHZHIA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: Sounds of cotton reported in Tokmak over the weekend. (Euromaidan Press)

Zaporizhzhia region will be liberated soon!!!#UkraineCounterofensive pic.twitter.com/bNZ2SzKTAn

— Getty 🇺🇦 🔜 (@region776) May 15, 2023

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military intelligence reports approximately 152,000 enemy troops are now concentrated in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson with no signs of withdrawal.
• The aggressor state is forcibly evacuating the civilian population from these regions, including the personnel of the captured nuclear power plant in Energodar. GUR reports evacuees are being filtered. “First of all, they do not want the population to be able to observe their preparations for battles…These are also filtering measures, since, first of all, there is a forced removal of the pro-Ukrainian population. And thirdly, the Russians are afraid of partisan movement and internal resistance in these territories.”
• In the Kherson region, men who have denounced Ukrainian citizenship are forcibly detained.  The men are then offered a chance to pay a bribe to occupation officials in order to postpone forced mobilization. Those who refuse to pay the bribe or do not have the required amount are sent by the occupiers to field camps to undergo an accelerated course of general military training.
• Russian forces are trying to use sea missile carriers, kamikaze drones, and reconnaissance drones to distract Ukrainian air defenses. Russian forces struck Kizomys and Stanislav, Kherson Oblast with four guided aerial bombs and targeted the Chornobaivka and Tokarivka areas with four loitering munitions. Russian shelling damaged critical infrastructure in Ochakiv.