Victory Chronicles
-DAY 441

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: “Ukraine would need to upgrade all its airfields if it received F-16 jets, as the planes need longer runways to take off.” BBC took a long look at how Ukraine manages to curtail enemy air superiority, especially from the point of view of the pilots that fly a small technologically inferior fleet, and a consideration of the time horizon for Ukraine to finally get NATO standard aircraft. 

Above: “Remove me completely, take me away”. A Pushin statue in Kyiv is the target of a petition for removal. (Dekomunizatsia.Ukraina.)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

Video: Demonstration of Ukrainian service members using an anti-drone gun to down a Russian drone by jamming radio signals. 

• The dainty dictator declined to use his Victory Day address to make any significant rhetorical changes and reiterated existing narratives, preparing for a protracted war and framing Russia as successfully resisting the entire West, pushing the lies that  “a real war has been unleashed against Russia” and that Russia is protecting residents of Donbas from Ukrainian terror.
• The little guy tried to shore up support from former Asian soviet republics Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan joined him on the parade podium in person.  Wagner’s prima donna leader called Putin an old grandpa and said that Russian bigwigs should stop showing off on Red Square.
• German medium Bild reported that former Asian soviet republics are acting as middlemen to evade sanctions on imports to Russia. German exports to Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Georgia doubled since the start of the full-scale invasion, exports to Tajikistan increased by 150%,  to Belarus increased by 77 % and to Kyrgyzstan by 994%.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: General Staff

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 196,310 (+690)
• Tanks, 3,736 (+2)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,275 (+18)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 3,039/555 (+8/1)
• Anti-aircraft systems, 308 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 308/294 (0)
• Unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,624 (+6)
• Cruise missiles ,970 (+15)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,974 (+5)
• Special equipment, 389 (+1)

GENERAL STAFF STRIKES ON CIVILIANS

Above: Chasiv Yar (New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 441st day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• During the day of May 9, the adversary launched 23x missile and 43x air strikes, 97x MLRS attacks. The enemy used various types of missiles for missile attacks, most of them were intercepted by Ukrainian defenders, but, unfortunately, some have hit their targets. In particular, 5x S-300 missiles hit the cities of Kup’yans’k, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka.
• The likelihood of further missile and air strikes across Ukraine remains high, as the enemy continues its terror tactics.
• The adversary focuses its main efforts on Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mar’inka axes, having conducted 46x attacks. The fiercest fighting is for the cities of Bakhmut and Mar’inka.
• Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: the adversary fired artillery at the settlements of Hasychivka, Zaliznyi Mist, Murav’i (Chernihiv oblast), Tovstodubove, Bachivs’k, Stari Vyrky, Iskryskivshchyna, Volfyne, Yunakivka, Mohrytsya, Popivka, Slavhorod (Sumy oblast), Hoptivka, Varvarivka, Buhruvatka, Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, Pletenivka, Tykhe, Mala Vovcha, Budarky, Zemlyanky, Vil’khuvatka, Dvorichans’ke, and Khatnje (Kharkiv oblast).
• Kup’yans’k axis: The invaders fired artillery and mortars at Kam’yanka, Kolodyazne, Krasne Pershe, Fyholivka, Novomlyns’k, Dvorichna, Kindrashivka, Lyman Pershyi, Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast), and Stel’makhivka (Luhansk oblast).
• Lyman axis: Makiivka, Bilohorivka, Vesele (Luhansk oblast), Yampolivka, and Spirne (Donetsk oblast) were shelled with artillery.
• Bakhmut axis: During the day of May 9, it conducted unsuccessful offensives in the city of Bakhmut, as well as towards the settlements of Ivanivske and Stupochky. Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Zalizne, and New York, (Donetsk oblast) suffered from enemy shelling.
• Avdiivka axis: Russian aircraft launched an airstrike in the vicinity of Avdiivka. The invaders shelled the settlements of Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Pervomais’ke, Netaylove, and Karlivka (Donetsk oblast).
• Mar’inka axis: Heorhiivka (Donetsk oblast) and other settlements were shelled by the enemy.
• Shakhtars’ke axis: The invaders launched an air strike in the vicinity of Velyka Novosilka, shelled the settlements of Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, Vuhledar, Prechystivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: Russian aircraft launched air strikes at Orikhiv, Kizomys, and Stanislav.  The invaders shelled the settlements of Vremivka, Novopil’ (Donetsk oblast), Ol’hivs’ke, Poltavka, Malynivka, Hulyaipole, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Orikhiv, Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka, Stepove, Kam’yans’ke, Plavni (Zaporizhzhia oblast), Antonivka, Molodizhne, and Zelenivka (Kherson oblast).

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: On the Luhansk-Kharkiv front, mainly regular enemy forces are fighting more cautiously than in Bakhmut where fighters are mostly paid mercenaries and prisoners. (Luhansk ODA)

Map via ISW

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 9. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka (12km northeast of Kupyansk), Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). Geolocated combat footage published on May 8 and 9 shows enemy elements operating near Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna).

DONETSK

Above: Municipal workers in Pokrovsk, Donetsk, work on the landscape. The New York Times wrote about the city of Pokrovsk and how residents are returning despite the frontline only 30 km away.  “More than 5.5 million have gone home, according to the International Organization for Migration, and not just to large cities like Kyiv, the capital, or Dnipro, but to small places as well, even those right behind the front line. While the exodus at the beginning of the war was dramatic and widely covered, the homecomings have been more gradual and haven’t generated nearly the same attention.” 

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces continued to make marginal gains within Bakhmut as of May 9. Geolocated footage published on May 8 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced further within western Bakhmut. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations within Bakhmut and near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), Chasiv Yar (12km west of Bakhmut), and Stupochky (13km southwest of Bakhmut).
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk frontline on May 9. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka), and Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka). Geolocated footage published on May 8 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely made further marginal advances north of Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka).
• Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful limited counterattack in western Donetsk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on May 9 indicates that Ukrainian forces conducted a counterattack near Novodonetsk (50km southwest of Donetsk City) and made marginal advances in the area.

ZAPORIZHZHIA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: Private sector telecommunication service providers dodge russian fire to ensure people have connectivity in the Kherson region. (Ukrainska Pravda)

• Russian forces are constantly shelling Kherson and Beryslav raions and are using guided aerial bombs to strike Kizomys (20km southwest of Kherson City) out of fear of a Ukrainian counteroffensive and Ukrainians landing on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
• Russian occupation officials began forcibly deporting children, their parents, teachers, and public sector employees from Kamianka-Dniprovska to Berdyansk in Zaporizhzhia Zaporizhia occupation claimed occupation officials removed about 3,000 civilians including 1,000 minors, 300 patients of neuropsychiatric centers, and children in orphanages from areas along the frontline to “safe areas” of Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian occupation authorities are selecting young people to send to Russia for “rest and rehabilitation” which is their code for ethnic cleansing and indoctrination.
• In Enerhodar, the russian occupiers organized a “evacuation” for family members of Zaporizhzhia NPP employees while employees are forbidden to leave. The so-called “authorities” promised evacuation to recreation centers and hotels in Berdyansk and Kyrylivka, but took them to tent camps in Rostov, Russia. The situation was somewhat different in Velyka Bilozerka where, last week, most of the collaborators used their own vehicles to leave for Crimea.