Victory Chronicles
-DAY 433

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: Ukrainian defenders conduct training exercises near the Belarusian border in Rivne Oblast. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service reported that earlier there were up to 17 thousand Russian troops in Belarus, today that number is around 2,800.  Russian military personnel train in Belarus before deployment to the front in eastern Ukraine. (Photo: National Review)

Above:  Kremlin support is eroding. The Kyiv Post drew attention to a UN Resolution adopted on April 26 acknowledging Russian aggression against Ukraine. Included in the 122 countries voting in favor were China, India, Brazil, Armenia, and Kazakhstan – countries which have so-far declined to take sides in the war. Five countries rejected the resolution including Russia, Belarus, Nicaragua, Syria and North Korea. 

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

⚡️Footage of a 🇷🇺Russian X-101/X-555 cruise missile shot down by a 🇺🇦Ukrainian air defense system last night pic.twitter.com/BJ4FW8wKCL

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) May 2, 2023

• Time Magazine, in a story titled “Tucker Carlson is Only One Part of Putin’s Disinformation War in the Western Media”, draws a picture of the lines between some Western journalists/ pundits and the Kremlin’s propaganda stream.  Wittingly or not, the article shows how big names – not just from Fox – but from Politico, CNN and the Financial Times, amplify Kremlin lies and deceit. The story concludes, “Perhaps the most cynical Moscow beat reporters should spend less time in Moscow’s café society with their crumbcakes and more time in the factories with crumbling industrial supply chains.”
• On May 1, a new Lithuanian law on de-communization and fighting propaganda came into effect. The law bans the promotion of totalitarian regimes and their ideologies and puts in place new procedures to remove symbols, place names and monuments glorifying the USSR.  The law calls for full transparency and public discourse about the historical context of the crimes, punished and unpunished, carried out by the Red Regime during occupation.  One of the bill’s sponsors said, “”By understanding ideologies and recognizing their signs, we increase society’s resistance to misinformation and propaganda.”
• The US White House assessed on May 1 that Russian forces have suffered 100,000 casualties—80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed since January 2023, that half of the 20,000 KIA were Wagner fighters and that Russia’s offensive on Bakhmut has failed.

Video: In the US House of Representatives, a minority of voraciously vocal members continuously repeat Kremlin propaganda, calling for the end of aid to Ukraine.  Therefore, the Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy made news Monday when he clapped back on a Russian journalist’s provocative question.  

Russian propagandist tells Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, the everyone knows he doesn’t support military aid for 🇺🇦

McCarthy answers that he wants military aid for 🇺🇦 to continue & adds:

“I support Ukraine & I don’t support Russia killing kids” pic.twitter.com/Dz4i7vDQHa

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 2, 2023

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: An abandoned Russian tank in the forest north of Kharkiv. (New York Times)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 191,420 (+460)
• Tanks, 3,701 (+1)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,193 (+1)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,930/544 (+9/0)
• Anti-aircraft systems, 298 (+3)
• Aircraft/helicopters ,308/294 (0)
• Unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,477 (+1)
• Cruise missiles, 947 (+15)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,851 (+6)
• Special equipment, 360 (+1)

GENERAL STAFF STRIKES ON CIVILIANS

Above: Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk.  (Washington Post)

Kyiv Oblast, Ukrainian EOD personnel remove the remains of a downed Russian Kh-555 cruise missile. pic.twitter.com/ZRxDwTFFJ2

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 2, 2023

Glory to Ukraine!
The 433rd day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The russian federation continues to use terror tactics. During the day of May 1, the enemy launched 19x missile attacks (Ukrainian defenders successfully intercepted 15x Kh-101 and Kh-555 enemy cruise missiles), 17x air strikes, and 25x MLRS attack
• Unfortunately, the attacks have killed and wounded civilians, including childre Residential multi-storey buildings, private housing, schools, hospitals, kindergartens, and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed or damaged.
• The likelihood of the enemy missile and air strike launches across Ukraine remains high.
• The occupiers continue to focus their main efforts on the offensive operations on Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mar’inka axes. 41x attacks of the adversary were repelled. Bakhmut and Mar’inka remain at the epicenter of the fighting; Ukrainian soldiers are holding the line.
• Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: during the day of May 1, the enemy launched 1x guided aerial bomb attack on Lyzunivka (Chernihiv oblast), killing 1x child. The invaders shelled the settlements of Leonivka, Krasnyi Khutir, Karpovychi, Hrem’yach, Novhorod-Sivers’kyi (Chernihiv oblast), Seredyna-Buda, Shostka, Khodyne, Iskryskivshchyna, Volfyne, Sadky (Sumy oblast), Udy, Hoptivka, Strilecha, and Khatnje (Kharkiv oblast).
• Kup’yans’k axis:  The adversary fired artillery and mortars at Fyholivka, Zapadne, Lyman Pershyi, Kyslivka, Kup’yans’k, Krokhmal’ne, and Berestove (Kharkiv oblast).
• Lyman axis:  Russian aircraft launched an air strike at Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka and Spirne. The adversary shelled Makiivka, Dibrova, Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, and Spirne (Donetsk oblast) with artillery.
• Bakhmut axis: An air strike was launched on Bakhmut and Bila Hora. Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Khromove, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Kostyantynivka, Dyliivka, and Pivdenne (Donetsk oblast) suffered from enemy shelling.
• Avdiivka axis: Russian aircraft launched an air strike on Avdiivka. The invaders shelled Lastochkyne, Sjeverne, Pervomais’ke, and Karlivka (Donetsk oblast).
• Mar’inka axis: Fighting for Mar’inka continues. Heorhiivka (Donetsk oblast) also came under enemy fire.
• Shakhtars’ke axis: The invaders shelled Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, and Novoukrainka (Donetsk oblast).
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: They are shelling settlements, including Vremivka, Novosilka, Novopil’ (Donetsk oblast), Malynivka, Chervone, Hulyaipole, Charivne, Bilohir’ya, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Shcherbaky, Zelenyi Hai (Zaporizhzhia oblast), Nikopol’ (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), Ivanivs’ke, Kozats’ke, Osokorivka, Zolota Balka, Kachkarivka, Respublikanets’, Beryslav, Vesele, Odradokam’yanka, Tyahynka, Bilozerka, Kizomys (Kherson oblast), and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Villagers cross a bridge over the Pechenihy reservoir in Staryi Saltiv, Kharkiv. (New York Times)

Above: Partisans of unknown affiliation blew up about six meters of train track on the Gomel ( Belarus) – Bryansk (Russia) rail line using about 10 kilograms of TNT. As a result, a freight train carrying fuel and lumber was partially derailed.  Cigarette butts were found at the scene. (Ukrainian Ministry of Accidental Russian Fires)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued routine fire and defensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on April 30 and May 1. Russian forces are conducting fewer assaults in the Kupyansk direction but are still heavily using artillery.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on April 30 and May 1. Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the direction of Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove) and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). Russian forces have built three to four defensive lines within the city of Svatove. Chechen units have returned to Luhansk Oblast and the heaviest fighting on this sector of the front is ongoing near Bilohorivka.

DONETSK

Above: New York Times

Maps via ISW

• A local Ukrainian commander stated that Ukrainian forces have regained the battlefield initiative in some areas of Bakhmut and that Russian forces have failed to cut Ukrainian logistics lines. Russian snipers from are operating in Bakhmut, suggesting that the Russian military may be reallocating more irregular units to Bakhmut to compensate for exhausted and ineffective enemy forces in the area.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on April 30 and May 1. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka), Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka), and Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City).
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on April 30 and May 1. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces have made a marginal advance on the eastern outskirts of Vuhledar as of April 29.

Above: Commander Syrsky was in the combat zone around Bakhmut on Sunday and released a summary of the situation. “The enemy is making every effort to advance and is not counting on anything. Despite significant losses, new assault groups of Wagner, fighters from other private companies, and paratroopers are constantly rushing into the battle. But the enemy fails to take control of the city.”  However, Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks and recaptured some Russian positions.

ZAPORIZHZHIA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: “A soldier from Ukraine’s 43rd Separate Artillery Brigade jumping down from a Panzerhaubitze, a German-made self-propelled howitzer, in a forest near the front line in Zaporizhzhia region.” (New York Times)

Above:  A billboard in Kherson during occupation touts Russian citizenship as providing “social stability and safety”.  Increasingly panicked occupation authorities are using harsh measures to force Ukrainians under occupation to take Russian citizenship or face dire consequences. Anyone without a Russian passport by July will have their property confiscated and be deported to unspecified locations. (New York Times)

• Ukrainian forces continue to engage Russian forces in counter-battery fights in Kherson Ukrainian counter-battery operations are forcing Russian forces to constantly maneuver on the east bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces decreased the rate of artillery fire against west bank Kherson Oblast over the past three days.
• Geolocated Russian footage also showed that invaders shelled Ukrainian positions with Polish-language leaflets that called on Ukrainian forces to surrender southwest of Orikhiv, 60 km southeast of Zaporizhzhia City.

Обстріл укрїнських позицій листівками на польскій мові (???) використовуючи ФПВ дрон, далі починається мінометний обстріл.

Location: near Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine

47.503234, 35.621667@GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap

Source: https://t.co/YihAc4zTLO pic.twitter.com/Q0cFXcen7F

— EjShahid (@EjShahid) April 30, 2023