Victory Chronicles
-DAY 432

Above: Spring in Bucha district. Where there is life, there is hope. (New York Times)

Above: “Bakhmut, Irpin is with you”. A mural in Irpin, Kyiv, features another icon of Ukrainian invincibility – the famous rock salt from Soledar, Donetsk. The invaders took Soledar in April, 2022, destroying the Artemsil rock salt factory.  A special supply of salvaged salt was promoted by UNITED24 to raise funds for the Ukrainian military. (Photo: Vilne Radio)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• An analysis published by CNN on the lead-up to the coming counteroffensive compares the way each side is preparing.  The article characterizes Moscow’s actions as, “the closing-time bar brawl stage of their war.” The author characterizes the last 72 hours – over the weekend – as particularly chaotic when the Kremlin canned its deputy minister in charge of war logistics and the leader of the Wagner mercenary group threatened to walk away from the war due to ongoing ammunition shortages.
• Ukraine’s human rights commissioner on Sunday advised Ukrainians living under enemy occupation to accept Russian passports to avoid arrest, detention, deportation or worse Russia World fates. “I advise you to accept a Russian passport and make the decision for yourself to survive…We understand that this happens under pressure, under physical pressure. So, take your passport, survive, and wait for us to liberate this territory.” Mr Lubinets said Ukrainian citizens who take a Russian passport will get their rightful citizenship restored.
• The Russian Pskov oblast governor stated on April 29 that the oblast should “be ready for provocations” and there will be no military parade or fireworks on Victory Day, May 9. The Russian Belgorod mayor published maps on April 29 showing bomb shelter locations near recreation areas due to heightened danger around the May holidays.

Above: In a special Sunday edition, ISW looked at changes in Russian military command since the beginning of the invasion.  Key points include:

• Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine without an overall theater commander and without a clear command structure have had lasting deleterious effects. Putin likely sought to present himself as the commander-in-chief mastermind of a successful 3-day takeover of Kyiv and didn’t want to share the spotlight with a particular military leader.  In light of the overall failure to achieve objectives, Putin seems to be shuffling commanders to shift blame away from himself.
• Frequent command changes have created a factionalized Russian military and disorganized command that are degrading the Russian military’s ability to conduct a cohesive campaign in Ukraine.
• The start of Ukrainian counter offensives in August and September 2022 led to widespread Russian panic, prompting command changes that exacerbated the confused command structure leading to the chaotic Russian rout in Kharkiv Oblast and the complete collapse of Russian lines around Izyum in mid-September.
• This was followed by another wave of panic during the Kharkiv and Kherson liberations, leading to more careening changes in command structure which continues until today.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: General Staff

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 190,960 (+450)
• Tanks, 3,700 (+1)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,192 (+3)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,921/544 (+7/0)
• Anti-aircraft systems, 295 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 308/294 (0)
• Unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,476 (+1)
• Cruise missiles, 932 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,845 (+3)
• Special equipment, 359 (+2)

Above: The aggressor launched multiple missiles at civilian targets overnight Sunday, possibly in retaliation for a drone strike on a Crimean fuel depot on Saturday. The General Staff reported that at 02:30 the invaders launched nine Tu-95 strategic bombers from Murmansk and two Tu-160 strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea. Ukraine shot down 15 of a total of 18 cruise missiles aimed at Ukrainian cities. Weapons systems analysts expect that Ukraine used its new Patriot air defense system, perhaps for the first time. (Live Map UA)

Above:  Sunday evening into Monday morning, three rockets hit Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, 150 km due west of Bakhmut.  One missile appeared to hit an ammo depot stored in the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant including “38 old ballistic missiles” and 1800 tons of rocket fuel. The Dnipropetrovsk governor reported that seven missiles were shot down in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Dnipropetrovsk ODA)

In Pavlograd, despite hitting civilians again, something else was hit as well. Looks like ammunition is detonating. pic.twitter.com/Mj3qW7Y8dq

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 30, 2023

Glory to Ukraine!
The 432nd day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The russian federation continues to use terror tactics. During the day of April 30, the enemy launched 5x missile attacks on the cities of Kramatorsk, Kostyantynivka, and Pavlohrad. In addition, the invaders launched 27x air strikes and 45x MLRS attacks at the positions of Ukrainian troops and settlements, killing and wounding civilians.
• The likelihood of missile and air strikes across Ukraine remains high.
• The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the offensive operations on Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mar’inka axes. During the day of April 30, Ukrainian defence forces repelled more than 36x enemy attacks in the above areas of the frontline. Bakhmut and Mar’inka remain at the epicenter of the fighting, Ukrainian soldiers are standing their ground.
• Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: the enemy launched air strikes on the settlements of Krasnyi Khutir (Chernihiv oblast), Seredyna-Buda (Sumy oblast) during the day of April 30. The invaders mortars and artillery at the settlements of Mykolaivka, Halahanivka, Arkhypivka, Leonivka, Oleksandrivka (Chernihiv oblast), Seredyna-Buda, Prohres, Druzhba, Bachivs’k, Sopych (Sumy oblast), Chervona Zorya, Veterynarne, Strilecha, Hlyboke, Krasne, Vovchans’k, Chernyakove, and Loshakove (Kharkiv oblast).
• Kup’yans’k axis: The invaders fired artillery and mortars at Kam’yanka, Krasne Pershne, Novomlyns’k, Dvorichna, Lyman Pershyi, Kyslivka, Berestove (Kharkiv oblast), and Novoselivs’ke (Luhansk oblast).
• Lyman axis: Nevs’ke, Dibrova, Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Kolodyazi, Tors’ke, Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Spirne, and Rozdolivka (Donetsk oblast) were shelled with artillery.
• Bakhmut axis: Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Kostyantynivka, Bila Hora, Oleksandro-Shul’tyne, Dyliivka, Pivnichne, Zalizne, Pivdenne, and New York (Donetsk oblast) suffered from enemy shelling.
• Avdiivka axis: The invaders shelled Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Tonen’ke, Sjeverne, Netaylove, Karlivka, Vodyane, and Pervomais’ke (Donetsk oblast).
• Mar’inka axis: Krasnohorivka, Pobjeda, and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast) were shelled by the enemy.
• Shakhtars’ke axis: The invaders shelled the settlements of Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Novoukrainka, and Zolota Nyva (Donetsk oblast).
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: The invaders shelled numerous settlements, including Vremivka, Burlats’ke, Novosilka, Novopil’ (Donetsk oblast), Ol’hivs’ke, Hulyaipole, Bilohir’ya, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka, Novoyakovlivka, Kam’yans’ke (Zaporizhzhya oblast), Kherson, Odradokam’yanka, and Bilozerka (Kherson oblast). The occupant forces launched an air strike at the settlement of Kizomys (Kherson oblast).

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: The village of Velyki Proxody, Kharkiv, was almost destroyed by the invaders under occupation.  Eight months later, it’s coming back to life.  (Nakypylo.Kharkiv)

• Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on April 30. A Ukrainian National Guard spokesperson stated that Russian forces are using more artillery but conducting fewer assaults in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions than in Bakhmut and Marinka.
• The General Staff reported the replenishment of combatants in Luhansk with up to 200 new convicts known to be training near Luhansk City. The commandant’s troop company received orders to fire on any recruits that disobey or attempt to escape.

Above: Ukrainian controlled Donetsk region. (New York Times)

In Mariupol, for the first time, the movement of Russian T-90 tanks was recorded, – adviser to the mayor of Mariupol Petr Andryushchenko and published the corresponding video pic.twitter.com/7nXuUgV1tt

— MAKS 22🇺🇦🔜 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) May 1, 2023

• Russian forces conducted ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on April 30. Ukrainian forces continue to have access to logistics routes to Bakhmut.

A timelapse of the Russian advances in Bakhmut every day since the start of the year. pic.twitter.com/lv8SIy0VN0

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) April 29, 2023

Above: Spectacular images emerged of a flaming oil depot south of Sevastopol Bay in Crimea on Saturday.  The oil refinery and storage facility was used to fuel the Black Sea Fleet.  A Ukrainian military intelligence official said more than 10 oil tanks with a capacity of about 40,000 tonnes were destroyed (Photos: The Washington Post (top), New York Times (bottom))

A Czech-supplied Mi-24V in Ukrainian service heads towards the front, flying east along the E50 highway in Donetsk Oblast. pic.twitter.com/CrtCHJ3ZnA

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 30, 2023

• Russian military forces may be planning to conduct their own offensive in southern Ukraine if the potential Ukrainian counteroffensive fails. Top Russian officials are reportedly discussing administration plans for districts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast which are currently under Ukrainian control as evidence of Russian aspirations to advance.
• Russian occupation authorities are struggling to suppress partisan activity in the south.  They have intensified filtration measures in occupied Kherson Oblast, conduct mass searches for phones with Ukrainian SIM cards and have increased the number of patrols and counterintelligence measures in the Kerch Peninsula, Crimea. Zaporizhzhia Oblast occupation administration established a curfew in Tokmak Raion, Zaporizhia Oblast starting on May 1. Russian occupation authorities in Mariupol are increasing street patrols and random checks.
• The General Staff reported that the adversary keeps replenishing its casualties with convicts. Recently, about 400 new Wager convicts have arrived in a field camp near Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia.
• Russian authorities continue consolidating physical control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi stated on April 28 that 3,000 personnel have contracts with Rosatom russian nuclear energy operator with another 1,000 contracts pending. One thousand personnel work under Ukrainian state nuclear energy operator Energoatom.