Victory Chronicles
-DAY 419

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: The Slovakian ministry of defense announced that Slovakia has completed the transfer of its MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. The ministry noted that the first four jets were flown out by Ukrainian pilots in March.  Just recently, the remaining nine promised jets were transported overland to ensure “greatest possible security. (Slovakian Ministry of Defense)

Above:  The Bradleys are arriving.  Pictured, the first photos of camo-painted Bradley fighting vehicles in Ukraine.  The US promised the delivery of 50 Bradleys to Ukraine in its 33rd assistance package.  he Bradley is designed to transport infantry or scouts with armor protection, while providing covering fire to suppress enemy troops and armored vehicles. It will be a key asset in the counteroffensive. (Defense of Ukraine)

Video: The first Bradleys to arrive in Ukraine were painted sand beige. 

Телеграм-каналы публикуют видео БМП Bradley в Украине. Эти машины вошли в 33-й пакет помощи Украине от США, о котором объявили в начале марта.#Himars #войнасУкраиной #Bakhmut pic.twitter.com/LD7s8znMCC

— Дмитрий Мороз (@MorozDmit) April 17, 2023

Video: Defense Intelligence of Ukraine published video showing Ukrainian crews mastering a Black Hawk helicopter.  Ukraine’s first Black Hawk pilot, call sign Master, praised the Black Hawks and said that the Ukrainian crew learned to operate it very quickly.  “Over the past year, the level of our pilots has grown tremendously. Currently, Ukraine can easily accommodate about a hundred Black Hawk multirole helicopters, about 50 Apache attack helicopters and about 40-60 Chinook cargo helicopters. We could accept such a number with minimal time to retrain our pilots.” 

Above: From left clockwise, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service Enrique Mora

• Foreign ministers of the G7 are meeting in Japan to discuss a list of international challenges. On Monday, they discussed the situation in Ukraine, issuing a communique including an encouragingly strong condemnation of Russia as a global citizen.
• They called out Moscow’s unprovided invasion, disinformation campaign, nuclear saber rattling, and weaponization of food. They pledged to intensify and enforce sanctions, prosecute war crimes and support President Zelensky’s path to lasting peace.They vowed to bring the secondary sanction hammer down on countries that assist Russia militarily.
• The ministers in consultation with high-level military advisors said that strong words of support won’t get the job done.  They called on allies to go all-in on military support now to prevent a prolonged stalemate.
• During the meeting, the UK’s foreign minister predicted that Putin will use “any tools he has left” in a last-ditch attempt to withstand Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He warned the world to be ready for desperate tactics such as nuclear machinations and ramped up cyberwar.
• The New York Times looked at the fundamental transformation of NATO as a result of Putin’s imperialist aggression.  During the period of stagnation following the breakup of the USSR, NATO drifted to a doctrine of, if they invade, we will push them out. Now, the alliance is restructuring to prevent invasion after seeing what the arrival of Russia World looks like in practice.  NATO will now build up military capacity on Russia’s border, increase military spending budgets and more closely integrate member war plans.
• Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s foreign minister met with comrades in Brazil.  Brazil’s president said that the US needs to stop warmongering and start supporting peace talks now.  The Kremlin’s guy said that Moscow is interested in ending the conflict as soon as possible. We wonder if he has orders to groom the nationalistic information space  ahead of the coming counteroffensive.

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• Things are really tough for Ukrainian farmers this year. Slovakia has joined Poland and Hungary in banning imports of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products in response to domestic pressure. Both Poland and Hungary will allow for Ukrainian products to transit through their countries.  The European Commission said that’s not how this works.  The EU as a whole sets trade policy for the bloc.  Meetings are scheduled.
• The International Energy Agency’s monthly report on Friday said that Russian oil exports by volume have returned to pre-invasion levels. However, revenues are down by 43% thanks to Western bans and price cap schemes. China and India are two countries taking advantage of price caps to load up on cheaper Russian fossil fuels. The IEA said that historically about 45% of Russia’s budget comes from oil and gas revenues. Even Russia, which we assume is always lying, admitted in their quarterly report last week that they are running a $29 billion budget deficit in the first quarter of 2023.
• The Russian ultra-nationalist online “Club of Angry Patriots” published its manifesto on April 17 on its newly created Telegram channel, claiming that pro-Western actors currently in power in Russia have transferred their money abroad and are secretly aligned with the West.  The Patriots warned that these traitors may be planning a palace coup with the goal of dismembering the Russia Federation. The manifesto says that the Russian MoD in its current form is too weak to win the war. It is assumed that CAP is waging a propaganda war directed at Putin to force him into aligning with the ultra-nationalist pro-war faction.

Video: It’s worth taking another look at the POWs returned from enemy captivity on Easter.  In this video, President Zelensky thanks them for their service.  In total, since the beginning of the war, 2235 Ukrainians have been returned from enemy captivity. 

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: The body of a Russia soldier recovered by Black Tulip, a Ukrainian volunteer humanitarian group that recovers Ukrainian defenders for return to their families. The group collects the enemy for exchange  (New York Times)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 183,130 (+470)
• Tanks, 3,661 (+1)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,098 (+11)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,810/538 (+6/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 285 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 308/293 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,353 (+6)
• Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,676 (+4)
• Special equipment, 330 (+2)

GENERAL STAFF STRIKES ON CIVILIANS

Above: Salvaging property from the church in Komshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia, bombed by the enemy on Sunday. (New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 419th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Over the past 24 hours, the enemy has launched 4 missile and 41 air strikes, launched 57 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and the civilian infrastructure of populated areas. There are wounded among the civilian population.
• The threat of launching missile and air strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high.
• The enemy suffers considerable losses, but continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive actions on the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Mar’yinka axes. During the day, more than 70x enemy attacks were repelled on the specified areas of the frontline. Bakhmut and Mar’yinka remain as the epicenter of hostilities.
• During the past day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Sosnivka, Popivka and Iskryskivshchyna of the Sumy Oblast, as well as the settlements of Okip, Bayrak, Vovchansk, Okhrimivka and Nesterne in the Kharkiv
• Kupyansk axis: the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Synkivka. Topoli, Krasne Pershe, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna and Zapadne of the Kharkiv Oblast got under enemy fire.
• Lyman axis:the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the area north of Spirnyi, without success. Stelmakhivka, Nevske, Belogorivka in the Luhansk Oblast and Ivanivka and Spirne in the Donetsk Oblast were hit by artillery fire.
• Bakhmut axis: the battles for the city of Bakhmut do not stop. In the area of the settlements of Ivanovske and Predtechine, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions. Vasyukivka, Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Chasiv Yar, Novodmytrivka, Pleshchiivka, Shcherbynivka, and Toretsk of the Donetsk Oblast were affected by enemy shelling.
• Avdiivka axis: unsuccessful enemy offensive attempts were recorded in the Novokalynovoy, Severnoy and Pervomaisky Oblasts of the Donetsk The occupiers shelled, in particular, Keramik, Novokalynove, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Tonenka, Netaylove, Pervomaiske and Karlivka.
• Mar’yinka axis: numerous enemy attacks were repelled in the Mar’yinka area. At the same time, Krasnohorivka, Pobyeda and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk Oblast were under enemy fire.
• Shakhtars’ke axis: the enemy shelled the settlements of Shakhtars’ke, Novoukrainka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Zolota Niva, Prechistivka, and Vugledar.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: the enemy continues to conduct defensive operations. During the day, the adversary carried out more than 40x shellings of populated areas. Among them are Vremivka, Novopil’ of the Donetsk Oblast; Malynivka, Chervone, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Orihiv of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast; Nikopol’ in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; Zolota Balka, Beryslav, Lviv, Ivanivka, Mykilske, Antonivka of the Kherson Oblast and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Sappers are working throughout the Kharkiv region to demine the territory.  Residents have been told to not be alarmed by the sounds of explosions nor sightings of drones that are being used to map the area. (Kharkiv Times)

🇺🇦Animal Rescue Kharkiv shares their story of evacuating 26 animals from Chasiv Yar❤️@AnimalRescueKh pic.twitter.com/usUIkpaaBv

— Sofia Ukraini (@SlavaUk30722777) April 17, 2023

Map via ISW

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and south of Kreminna on April 17. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk), Hryhorivka (11km south of Kreminna), and Spirne (25km south of Kreminna).
• Footage published on April 17 purportedly shows Russian forces, likely airborne elements, using TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems near Kreminna. A milblogger claimed on April 17 that Russian aircraft made more sorties in the Svatove direction than he “had seen in a long time.”

DONETSK

Above: Loading artillery near Avdiivka. (CNN)

Video: Big buildings full of Russians are blowing up in Bakhmut.  Ukraine may have mined the buildings upon retreat and are now waiting for the uninvited guests to check in. 

📹 Undermining the house of culture in #Bakhmut, #Donetsk Region. pic.twitter.com/8brFdhNtgs

— KyivPost (@KyivPost) April 18, 2023

"Together with Ukrainians, we fight for freedom with weapons in our hands. We are Belarusians from the Kalinousky Regiment." Belarusian volunteers today released a spectacular video showing their actions in Bakhmut.

Source: Belwarriors pic.twitter.com/NgtetqAuE0

— Belsat in English (@Belsat_Eng) April 18, 2023

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces are increasing the use of heavy artillery and air strikes in the devastated eastern Ukrainian city of The Russian MoD has been ordered to take Bakhmut “at any cost”.
• Russian forces have made further gains in Bakhmut as of April 17. Geolocated footage posted on April 16 shows that Wagner Group forces have advanced north of the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut route along the main railway in Bakhmut. Russian forces conducted ground attacks in Bakhmut, northwest of Bakhmut near Khromove, and southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (3km southwest) and Predtechyne (12km southwest).
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on April 17. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Novokalynove (8km north of Avdiivka), Sieverne (5km west of Avdiivka), Vodyane (8km southwest of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka), Nevelske (6km northwest of Donetsk City), and in Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka). Russian forces withdrew two VDV units from the Marinka direction to recover from casualties.

ZAPORIZHZHIA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above:  US 101st Airborne Division stationed at an airbase in Romania near the Black Sea port of Constanta, Romania. New strategies for more aggressive containment of Russia on the Black Sea are in development.  NATO members Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey border the Black Sea, but the sea’s security interest stretches from Europe to Asia.  (New York Times) 

• The Ministry for Restoration released a statement that Russia is, once again, throwing a wrench in the gears of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  It refuses to take part in the agreed upon cooperative plan between the UN, Turkey, Ukraine and the Kremlin, going rogue to slow down and block Ukrainian grain shipments.  On Monday, it began blocking inspections of ships in Turkish territorial waters.

Ukraine Army 🥵 pic.twitter.com/uv8GivXbWt

— Getty 🇺🇦 (@region776) April 18, 2023