Victory Chronicles
-DAY 415

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above:  On Easter, the most important religious holiday of the year in Ukraine, the tradition of blessing Easter baskets has to be modified during war.  In conflict zones, authorities want to avoid gatherings and maintain curfew schedules. Churches are asking parishioners to stay home and attend online service this year, cemeteries are closed.  Many cities are beefing up police patrols, emergency responders and demining crews.  (Photo: Bilingual Kids Rock)

Above:  “’Import substitution’ by Russia’s military industry is not even at the level of spare parts, but only at the level of the Kremlin’s propaganda imagination.” The Military Media Center hosted a briefing by the Center for Research of Trophy and Prospective Weapons and Military Equipment regarding the technical failure of drones used by Russian troops against Ukraine.  “Our research has shown that the latest Shahed 136 and ZALA 421-16E samples have a number of ‘modifications’ that testify to structural degradation and significant problems of the Russian military industry in the field of production, modernization and maintenance of unmanned aerial vehicles.” The full presentation in Ukrainian language on YouTube. 

Video:  This Easter, grateful citizens across the country are preparing Easter baskets for the defenders.  One example – out of thousands – took place in Uzhorod, Zakarpatia, where volunteers collected eight thousand paska loaves for the frontlines. 

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• Poland received approval from the Germans to hand over to Ukraine “another batch” of  MiG-29 fighter jets that originally belonged to East German before reunification, then were sold to Poland in 2002. According to Polish PM Moravieski, Poland is building its capabilities with NATO-standard combat jets and no longer needs the Soviet-era planes.  Poland has ordered more F-35 jets for delivery in the coming years, but, in the meantime, NATO is conducting rotational missions of F-22 jets to Poland as part of a broader plan to strengthen its eastern flank.
• Federal investigators in the US have arrested a 21-year-old Massachusetts national guardsman for posting classified documents on a gamer channel in connection with the intelligence leak last week.  According to the New York Times, the suspect was a member of a small chat group of young male gaming enthusiasts who shared a love of guns and racist memes.
• The Hague ordered Russia to pay $5 billion to Ukraine’s state energy company Naftogaz for losses caused by the seizure of Naftogaz assets in Crimea in 2014. If the Kremlin refuses to pay,, compensation can be forcibly collected by confiscating Russian assets in other countries. Naftogaz filed the lawsuit against Russia in 2016 at the Permanent Court of Arbitration.
• Russian crypto-mobilization efforts are stagnating due to the Russian public’s growing awareness that causality rates for Russian soldiers in Ukraine are high. Volgograd and Saratov oblasts have only met, respectively, seven percent and 14 percent of their recruitment quotas for the first quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, Moscow is trying to create alternative private military companies to fill the gaps. Ukraine warns, however, that the US and NATO should not underestimate Russian capabilities in the long run, as Russia can regenerate by leveraging its population and defense industrial base to threaten Ukraine and NATO if the Kremlin decides to fundamentally change Russia’s strategic resource allocation.
• Apparently due to growing problems with war fund liquidity, the Kremlin is sending the bill for volunteer recruitment in occupied Donests to the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom.   In desperation to get more bodies, Moscow is now offering a monthly salary of almost $5000 to TOT volunteers.  The Russian Duma is considering a new 2-3% tax on personal income to fund the war. .

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: General Staff

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 181,090 (+500)
• Tanks, 3,650 (+4)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,069 (+16)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,784/535 (+7/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 283 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 307/293 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,339 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,640 (+3)
• Special equipment, 321 (+1)

GENERAL STAFF STRIKES ON CIVILIANS

Above: A grain farmer in Snihurivka, 60 kilometers north of Kherson, points out enemy trenches dug in his field during a very brief occupation last spring.  Ukrainian farmers are under unthinkable stress this planting season.  Artillery fire, landmines, Black Sea and EU export issues and rising costs of inputs are straining resources.  Farmers have to decide to risk life and limb to remove mines or go another year without income. The deputy chairman of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council laid out the challenges at the Ukrainian Media Center.  (CNN)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 415th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The russian federation continues to wage its war of aggression. The invaders continue to disregard the International Humanitarian Law, as they target and shell the positions of Ukrainian troops and civilian infrastructure alike.
• During the day of April 13, the adversary launched 19x air strikes, 39x MLRS attacks, causing civilian casualties.
• The likelihood of missile and air strikes across Ukraine remains quite high.
• The adversary has not abandoned its plans to occupy Ukrainian territory, despite significant losses. The invaders continue to focus their main efforts on the offensive operations on Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mar’inka axes. The fiercest fighting is for Bakhmut and Mar’inka. Coordinated actions and the heroism of the Ukrainian Defense Forces allowed to repel 49x adversary attacks during the day of April 13.
• During the day of April 13, the adversary shelled the settlements of Halahanivka (Chernihiv oblast), Studenok, Iskryskivshchyna, Volfyne (Sumy oblast), Udy, Kozacha Lopan’, Ternova, Starytsya, Hatyshche, Mykolaivka, and Budarky (Kharkiv oblast).
• Kup’yans’k axis: Krasne Pershe, Novomlyns’k, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Masyutivka, and Tabaivka (Kharkiv oblast) came under enemy fire.
• Lyman axis: during during the day of April 13, the adversary conducted unsuccessful offensives near of settlements of Dibrova and Bilohorivka. Novoselivs’ke, Stel’makhivka, Andriivka, Nevs’ke, Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), and Spirne (Donetsk oblast) were shelled with artillery.
• Bakhmut axis: the enemy continues its offensive operations. Heavy battles for the city of Bakhmut continue. The adversary attempted to attack in the vicinities of Bohdanivka and Predtechyne, to no success. Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Khromove, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Bila Hora, Novodmytrivka, Kurdyumivka, Pivnichne, and Zalizne (Donetsk oblast) were shelled by the enemy.
• Avdiivka axis: the adversary conducted unsuccessful offensives towards Sjeverne, firing artillery at Novokalynove, Stepove, Avdiivka, Sjeverne, Pervomais’ke, Netaylove, and Karlivka (Donetsk oblast), among other settlements.
• Mar’inka axis: during the day of April 13, Ukrainian defenders repelled numerous enemy attacks in the vicinity of Mar’inka (Donetsk oblast). At the same time, Nevel’s’ke, Krasnohorivka, Mar’inka, Pobjeda, and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast) were shelled by the enemy.
• Shakhtars’ke the enemy d shelled the settlements of Shakhtars’ke, Velyka Novosilka, Vuhledar, Novoukrayinka, Prechystivka, and Zolota Nyva (Donetsk oblast).
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: the invaders shelled settlements near the line of active combat. Among them are Ol’hivs’ke, Chervone, Hulyaipole, Huliaipilske, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka, Stepnohirs’k (Zaporizhzhia oblast), Stepanivka, Antonivka (Kherson oblast), and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Paratrooper of the 95th Ukrainian Airmobile forces near Kreminna, Luhansk. (Supline)

Above:  Approximate situation on the Kharkiv-Luhansk line on April 15. (Michael MacKay)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on April 13. Geolocated footage published on April 12 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced south of Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna). Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Bilohorivka on April 13.
• Russian forces deployed motorized rifle units, BARS Special Forces, and additional reconnaissance equipment to the Kreminna area, where a lack of rotations is reportedly leading to poor morale among Russian personnel.
• Russian forces continued attempts to push Ukrainian forces to positions on the west bank of the Zherebets River near Torske (14km west of Kreminna) and Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna).

DONETSK

Above: Ukrainian soldiers in an armored personnel carrier in Bakhmut, April 12. (RFERL)

Earlier this week, Russian forces targeted Ukrainian-held portions of Bakhmut with 122mm 9M22S incendiary Grad rockets. pic.twitter.com/TmCZWyBWM9

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 14, 2023

Video: White Angels evacuate the last child left in the village of Maksymilyankiva near Maryinka, Donetsk, with his relatives. 

Video: Even though Kostyantynivka is under daily bombardment, a local entrepreneur is preparing 2.5 tons of paska bread for Easter 2022. 

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces continued to make territorial gains in Bakhmut on April 13. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced further west into central Bakhmut and made marginal advances in southern and southwestern Bakhmut.Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks in Bakhmut, northwest of Bakhmut near Khromove (2km west) and Bohdanivka (6km northwest), and southwest of Bakhmut near Predtechyne (13km southwest).
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on April 13. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Sieverne (5km west of Avdiivka), Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka), Pobieda (5km southwest of Donetsk City), and Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City).

Above: Donetsk-Luhansk oblast population points shelled by the enemy in the last 24 hours. The enemy is conducting scorched earth on every living thing within reach of their artillery. (Michael MacKay). 

ZAPORIZHZHIA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told the audience of the Black Sea Security Conference in Bucharest, Romania, this week that the Black Sea, like the Baltic Sea, must become a NATO sea to ensure security in Europe. According to the minister, the Black Sea is an example of how quickly things can deteriorate when the Russian threat is ignored. “At every turn, Russia acts when the West hesitates. When caution driven by fear closed NATO’s doors to Ukraine and Georgia in 2008, Russia reacted quickly by attacking both countries. Russia behaves like a maniac, but some leaders that the best  strategy is to make the maniac happy.” said Mr Kuleba.. (Center for Defense Strategy)

Above:  Southern Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblast population points shelled by the enemy in the last 24 hours.  Ukraine’s age-old enemy finds great pleasure in constant killing and destruction of civilians, with little or no military gain. (Michael MacKay)

Video: A video posted by war journalist Yuri Butysov shows the launch of the two Neptune missiles in April 2022 that sunk the enemy Black Sea flagship Moskva. 

Video:  In a treatment facility for wounded State Border Guard defenders, the staff decided to add the sunken Moskva to its meditation aquarium. 

• President Zelensky signed a decree creating a new official holiday on April 13 – Day of Defense Industry Workers.  On April 13, 2022, Ukraine sank the Moskva flagship to the bottom of the Black Sea.
• Russian forces continue to endanger the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Energoatom reported on April 13 that Russian forces continue to mine areas near the ZNPP and that one of the mines recently detonated near the control room of the fourth power unit at the facility.