Victory Chronicles
-DAY 414

Above: Dobropark near Kyiv announced that its tulip festival will go on this year, from April 27 to May 21.  Together with Dutch partners, a new tulip variety will be introduced called “Ukrainian Courage”.  With warm weather arriving, the Kremlin seems to have given up on its failed civilian bombing campaign of Kyiv and other areas not on the border with the terrorist state. 

Above: On a glamorous invader Hollywood-movie-style army recruitment poster – “Our Profession – Protectors of the Motherland”.  Don’t you hate it when the trailer is way better than the movie?  Moscow is carrying out an aggressive marketing campaign to try to get, one way or another, hundreds of thousands of new bodies onto the war fields in Ukraine.  Right now, the Kremlin is conducting the semi-annual draft,  which by law excludes draftees from fighting in current wars.  However, the loophole is that they could be legally stationed in what the Kremlin considers “Russian territory”.  The Russian NGO “Go by the Forest” that helps compatriots flee the country, reports that inquiries are up, but that most people who have the economic means have already left.  (Reuters)

Above:  The US State Department issued a statement announcing a new round of targeted sanctions “connected with Russia’s unlawful and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.”  The US added 120 entities in 20 countries that finance the war, indoctrinate children, procure weapons (including a Chinese satellite imagery provider) and use energy as a global weapon. A list of each entity is here. 

Video:  Daddy has to go to work.  Her face is our face, too.  

Child not ready for daddy to go back to War…#Ukraine #UkraineWillWin #Ukrainian #Russia pic.twitter.com/8EuuosfOmg

— Intermarium 24 (@intermarium24) April 12, 2023

Video: Your guide to making Easter paska bread.  

Happy Monday evening, allies. Nadia and her brother are making paska (traditional Ukrainian #Easter bread) for “everyone who needs it, near and far”. #standwithukraine #Ukraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/nriCjdv5OH

— Tetyana Denford (Тетяна Бісик) 🇺🇦 (@denfordauthor) April 10, 2023

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• The World Bank has arranged an emergency loan of $200 million for equipment and repairs to Ukraine’s heating and electrical systems. The Bank estimates that over half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was damaged during Moscow’s mad and useless terror campaign over the winter.  Moscow used a huge amount of limited rockets and missiles to force Ukrainians into submission.Ukrainians understand the Russian character very well, while Russia doesn’t understand Ukrainian in the least.
• The Guardian reports that here is increasing evidence that the online leak of US intelligence last week was a result of sloppy intelligence management, not an operation by a state actor aiming to discredit the US. Most likely the leak was the consequence of a Pentagon policy of granting security clearances to huge numbers of service members, civilians and contractors.  Bellingcat is working on tracing the documents. As of now, it is believed that the documents first appeared in a Discord thread for Minecraft gamers, posted by “a young, racist gun enthusiast who worked on a military base, and who was seeking to impress two dozen fellow members of an internet chat group.”
• Belarus has extradited the man who was arrested when his young daughter drew anti-war pictures at school. Alexei Moskalyov, a 54-year-old single parent from the town of Yefremov, 150 miles south of Moscow, fled house arrest last month, hours before a court handed him a two-year sentence for “discrediting” the Russian army.
• Occupied territories and adjacent Russian regions are canceling their traditional May 9th Victory in Europe propaganda military strength parades, citing security reasons.  In fact, there may be a shortage of weapon systems and human props for the parades.
• On Thursday, ISW looked at Moscow’s Russification campaign that “forms the rhetorical backbone of the pro-war information space, which frequently mirrors its militarism with staunch Russian nationalism and intense xenophobia that is directed both at Ukraine and at domestic minorities within Russia itself.” The analysis includes several examples of xenophobia and racist Russian nationalists attacking ethnic minorities who, ironically, carry the heaviest rate of fatalities in the Kremlin’s war.  In particular, ultra-nationalist call for the conscription of Asia and Caucasian people who should be grateful that they get to live in Russia.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Photo near Kyiv, April 2022. Some things haven’t changed much in a year. (SBS)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 180,590 (+540)
• Tanks, 3,646 (0)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 7,053 (+10)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,777/535 (+7/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 283 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 307/293 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level 2339 (+5)
• Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,637 (+7)
• Special equipment, 320 (+1)

Above: Ukraine-controlled Chasiv Yar due west of Bakhmut. (The New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 414th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• During the past day, the enemy launched 2x missile and 32x air strikes, launched more than 40x rounds from MLRS on the positions of our troops and the civilian infrastructure of populated areas. There are dead and wounded civilians. 2x russian missiles fired from the S-300 air defense system hit the objects of civil infrastructure in the city of Sloviansk.
• The russian federation continues to disregard the laws and customs of war, so the probability of missile and air strikes remains high throughout the territory of Ukraine.
• Despite numerous losses in equipment and manpower, the occupiers continue to focus their main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mar’yinka areas. During the day, thanks to the courage of each soldier, more than 45x enemy attacks were repelled.
• During the past day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Galaganivka, Zaliznyi Myst, Arkhipivka of the Chernihiv Oblast; Methodivka, Seredyna-Buda, Esman, Khodyne, Bilopylla, Iskriskivshchyna, Volfine, Pavlivka, Obody, Kindrativka, Varachyne, Basivka, Zapsillia and Myropillya of the Sumy Oblast, as well as Veterinarne, Lukyantsi, Neskuchne, Vovchansk, Varvarivka, Nesterne, Zemlianki, Komisarov, Kolodyazne, Novomlynsk and Oskil in Kharkiv
• Kupyansk axis: Topoli, Krasne Pershe, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Kindrashivka and Oskil of the Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy fire.
• Lyman axis: during the day, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Bilogorivka. Novoselivske, Nevske, Kuzmine, Belogorivka of the Luhansk Oblast and Torske and Spirne of the Donetsk Oblast were hit by artillery fire.
• Bakhmut axis: Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Novodmytrivka, Kurdyumivka, Druzhba, Severnye and Zalizne of the Donetsk Oblast were affected by enemy shelling.
• Avdiivka and Mar’yinka axes: the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Severne, Mar’yinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka settlements of the Donetsk The fiercest battles continue for Mar’yinka. At the same time, Keramik, Novokalynove, Krasnohorivka, Stepove, Avdiyivka, Tonenka, Severna, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Netaylove, Nevelske, Karlivka, Georgiivka, Mar’yinka, and Pobieda of the Donetsk Oblast were under enemy fire.
• Shakhtars’ke axis: during the past day, the enemy did not carry out any offensive actions. They shelled the settlements of Novomykhailivka, Shakhtars’ke, Novoukrainka, Velyka Novosilka, Vugledar and Prechistivka in the Donetsk
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: the enemy continues to conduct defensive operations. Over the past 24 hours, more than 35x settlements have been shelled. Among them are Olhivske, Chervone, Charivne, Novodanilivka, Orihiv, Novoandriivka, Mali Shcherbaki, Stepnohirsk of Zaporizhzhya Oblast; Kozatske, Odradokamyanka, Mykolaivka, Olhivka, Tyaginka, Kizomys of the Kherson Oblast and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: Suspilne covered the story of a father and son who fight together for the defense of Ukraine. The father is a veteran since 2015 who is now training his 21-year-old son “on the intricacies of military affairs”.  The patriotic son, a doctor in training, came to his father the day after the invasion started and said he would either join his father for find another way to serve on his own.  

Above: A tractor in Kharkiv hit a mine.  The 28-year-old driver was hospitalized. The enemy has purposefully mined agricultural fields as part of its sadistic love of terror.  The Ukrainian government is warning citizens to be extremely careful in any area where the invaders have been. (Kharkiv Times)

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on April 12. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna) and Spirne (25km south of Kreminna).

Above: “Spring on the Front” (UNN)

• Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and did not make any confirmed gains in the city on April 12. Fierce fighting is ongoing within Bakhmut and Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Khromove (3km west of Bakhmut) and Bohdanivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut). Wagner forces are attacking Bakhmut mainly in small tactical groups with the support of conventional Russian elements.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline on April 12. Geolocated footage posted on April 11 indicates that Russian forces have advanced near Novobakhmutivka (10km north of Avdiivka) and crossed the N20 Donetsk City-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk highway. Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations near Avdiivka itself; on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske and Nevelske; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka and Pobieda.
• The enemy is increasing filtration activities in Donetsk oblast with increased patrols and roadblocks.  At the checkpoints, the enemy is actively conducting filtering activities of the local population. Fearing the leakage of information about the location of the occupying units, the invaders began to restrict certain traffic routes to taxi drivers, local residents are allowed to enter only with registration.

Above: Approximate territory control in Bakhmut as of April 11. (New York Times)

Above:  Artists of all ages from the Odesa Art School exhibited Easter works at the All-Ukraine Center of Bulgarian Culture in Odesa. On the religious calendar, the Easter story of overcoming injustice and repression at the hands of cruel enemies is by far the most important date. (Dumska)

• Russian forces continue to construct defenses in southern Ukraine.The UK Ministry of Defense reported on April 12 that Russia forces have completed three layers of defenses across about 120km of Zaporizhia Oblast. ISW previously reported that the continued construction of fortifications in Crimea suggests that Russian forces are unsure of their ability to hold occupied territories in southern Ukraine in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.