Victory Chronicles
-DAY 405

Above: The Finnish-Russian border is now a NATO-Russian border. (CNN)

Finland is officially joining NATO today.

This is the sight most feared by every Russian man. An angry Finnish soldier rushing toward you on skis.

🇫🇮 pic.twitter.com/S8Acu2f15p

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 4, 2023

‘My country has fallen out of time’: Russian author Mikhail Shishkin’s letter to an unknown Ukrainian https://t.co/RzftdqGVNx

— The Guardian (@guardian) April 2, 2023

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• The UN Security Council’s new president – Russia – hosted a traditional breakfast on Monday attended by representatives of the 15 security council members, which the Kremlin spun as a sign of acceptance. The US’s UN ambassador predicted, “We expect that they will behave professionally. But we also expect that they will use their seat to spread disinformation and to promote their own agendas as it relates to Ukraine. And we will stand ready to call them out at every single moment that they attempt to do that.” Russia will be challenged in the first meeting it called to debate a resolution on sanctions adopted in December.
• On the 74th anniversary of the founding of NATO, Finland will formally join NATO in a ceremony Tuesday afternoon. “We will raise the Finnish flag for the first time here at the NATO headquarters,” NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said, “It will be a good day for Finland’s security, for Nordic security, and for NATO as a whole.” The change of government in Finland isn’t expected to change the country’s outlook on Ukraine or NATO.  The leader of the new ruling coalition said, “We cannot accept this terrible war. And we will do all that is needed to help Ukraine, Ukrainian people because they fight for us. This is clear.”
• The Russian propaganda narrative over the assassination of a milblogger in St Petersburg is out of control. Various actors blamed Ukraine, Navalny supporters, Wagner foes, Russian orthodox patriarchy foes, Russian ultra-nationalists and Russian resistance.
• Defense Express reports that Germany is expanding its repair and logistics capabilities for Western equipment near Ukraine’s borders. German first opened a center in Mykhailivska, Slovakia, about  25 km from Uzhhorod, Zakarpattia and now a second in Satu Mare, Romania, 17 kilometers from Ukraine’s border.  The equipment maintenance center will serve German equipment, such as Leopard 2 tanks, Marder BMPs, Fuchs armored personnel carriers and British Challenger 2 tanks and other armored vehicles and road freight transport.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: Defense Express

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 175,690 (+530)
• Tanks, 3,627 (+8)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,999 (+6)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,697/528 (+3/1)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 280 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 306/291 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,277 (+15)
• Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,562 (+9)
• Special equipment, 298 (0)

Above: St George church in Bila Tserkva near Kyiv. The town was originally founded by Ukrainian Knyaz Yaroslav the Wise in 1032.  (Kyiv Post)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 405th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Over the past day, the enemy launched 3 missile and 21 air strikes, launched 33 attacks from rocket salvo systems.
• The probability of launching missile and air strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high, because the enemy will continue to use terror tactics.
• The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiiv and Marin directions. Thanks to the coordinated actions of units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and the heroism of each soldier, 69 attacks by the occupiers were repelled during the past day. The fiercest battles continue for the settlements of Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka.
• Over the past 24 hours, the enemy shelled the settlements of Volfine, Zapsillia, and Myropyllya in the Sumy region, as well as the settlements of Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Zybine, Volokhivka, Rublene, and Vilkhuvatka in the Kharkiv region.
• In the Kupyansk direction, the settlements of Kamianka, Petro-Ivanivka, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Kutkivka, Zapadne, Masyutivka of the Kharkiv region were hit by enemy fire; Krokhmalne of Luhansk Oblast and Terna and Serebryanka of Donetsk
• In the Lyman direction, during the past day, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of the settlements of Nevske, Kreminna, Dibrova and Serebryansk forestry. Makiivka, Nevske, Kreminna, Dibrova, Belogorivka of the Luhansk region and Terny, Vesele, Zvanivka, Spirne and Rozdolivka of the Donetsk region were hit by artillery fire.
• In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy is trying to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, and continues to storm it. He led unsuccessful offensive actions near the settlements of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Ivanivske. During the day, units of the defense forces repelled 32 enemy attacks on the indicated section of the front. Settlements located in the area of the combat clash were affected by enemy shelling, including: Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Bogdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Chasiv Yar, Ozaryanivka, Dachne, Oleksandro-Shulgine, Zalizne and New York of the Donetsk
• The enemy carried out offensive actions in the Avdiiv and Marin In the districts of Novokalynove, Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka, Severna, Pervomaiske and Maryinka, he was not successful. At the same time, the enemy shelled the settlements of Avdiivka, Vodyane, Severna, Netaylove, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, and Pobyeda in the Donetsk region.
• The enemy shelled the settlements of Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, Prechistivka, Zolota Niva, Velika Novosilka, and Vremivka in the Donetsk
• In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, the enemy did not conduct active operations, but increased its defense capabilities. He shelled the settlements of Olhivske, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Biloghirya, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Kamianske of the Zaporizhia region, as well as Antonivka of the Kherson region and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: Kharkiv’s famous Feldman Ecopark is slowly rebuilding and getting ready to open the alpaca section in time for Children’s Day on June 1. It is also starting up art therapy for children under stress. The park was founded to combine animal care and therapy for children with special needs.  A year ago, the invaders destroyed it, murdered park workers, ate the animal feed and some of the animals. (Kharkiv Feldman Ecopark)

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on April 2 and 3. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Nevske (20km northwest of Kreminna), the Serebrianska forest area (10km south of Kreminna), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and Verkhnokamianske (18km south of Kreminna).Ukrainian forces continue to repel constant attacks on Bilohorivka even though Russian forces have more troops near the settlement.

Above: A gas station in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk, on March 29. (The New York Times)

• Wagner made further advances in central Bakhmut, sizing Bakhmut City Administration building on the night of April 2. Prigozhin raised a Russian flag with an inscription in memory of an assassinated milblogger blown up in his St Petersburg cafe Sunday.
• Geolocated footage posted on April 1 shows a Ukrainian missile strike on Russian positions in the AZOM complex in northern Bakhmut. Russian Airborne forces are increasingly supporting Wagner in Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself, northwest of Bakhmut near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (12km northwest), and southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km southwest) and Predtechyne (15km southwest).
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline on April 2 and 3. Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive actions near Avdiivka itself; in the Avdiivka area near Severne (5km west of Avdiivka) and Novokalynove (12km north of Avdiivka); on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske and Vodyane; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka.
• Russian special forces have recently deployed in the Donetsk City area and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) recently withdrew from the Avdiivka area for recovery.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on April 2. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults towards Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City) on April 2

Above: In a story titled, “A web of trenches shows Russia fears losing Crimea”, The Washington Post detailed Moscow’s preparations to defend Crimea by land and sea. The Kremlin is preparing for a Ukrainian counteroffensive by building hundreds of kilometers of fortified trenches, placing concrete bunkers, barriers and towed artillery in time for the Crimean tourist season.  Concerning Moscow’s worries over a Ukrainian campaign to retake Crimea, the story quotes experts who say it would be difficult for Ukraine to breach extensive fortifications in the neck of Crimea. Instead, Ukraine could cut off access to the peninsula by gaining fire control over logistics routes and cutting the land bridge across southern Ukraine. 

Above:  While much of Crimea is currently out of range of Ukrainian strikes, Ukraine has had some success menacing enemy military facilities.  It isn’t clear how Ukraine has hit deep into Crimea, most likely a combination of drones, saboteurs and unknown long-range strike capabilities.  (The Washington Post)

Above: When the time is right, Ukraine will destroy the 19-kilometer Kerch Strait Bridge which connects mainland Russia with Crimea, Ukraine.  Since unknown forces damaged the vehicle bridge and railway line in October, Moscow has missed several reopening deadlines. Satellite imagery posted on April 3 shows the rail section still undergoing repairs.  Concerning vehicle traffic, local Krasnodar media reported on April 1 that the road bridge has traffic jams up to 2 km long on both sides and that 128 heavy trucks waited in line to ferry across the Kerch Strait that morning. (Radio Svoboda)

• “On the night of April 4, 2023, in the sky above the city of Odesa, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down 13 Shahed-136/131 attack drones.”  The enemy launched 17 drones apparently from the Sea of Azov, which has a border with both Russia and Iran. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 of the drones, thirteen over Odesa and one over Mykolaiv. Social media footage purports to show a large explosion near Odesa.
• In Kakhovsky district, Kherson, the occupiers forbid residents from leaving their homes.  All public places were closed during the day: shopping centers, shops, hospitals, etc. In some villages of the district, pensioners are forced to stand in line for pensions and do not receive the full amount. However, occupation authorities will accept “special fees” to make social benefits more accessible.