Victory Chronicles
-DAY 399

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: The Ukrainian military announced that three new UVA strike companies are ready to deploy Ukrainian-made drones for combat. These innovative formations are the first of their kind in world history and will bring a  “completely new approach to management, training and doctrine of drone usage.” The companies are equipped with pickup trucks, attack helicopters and Starlink terminals. More than $1.5 million was raised through the sale of 100,000 packets containing salt from a mine at Soledar, a town that was captured by fighters of the Russian private military company Wagner in January. (Photo: The Economist)

Above: France will double the supply of 155-mm artillery rounds to Ukraine starting in late March, according to France’s defense minister. Slovakia has announced plans to increase the production of 155-mm ammunition fivefold — up to 150,000 units per year with EU support – as part of its cooperation on a multilateral EU project to supply Ukraine and build domestic stockpiles.  Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s former defense minister said that his country will most likely provide a “huge amount” of old artillery to Ukraine through intermediaries.  He stated that Bulgaria is currently carrying out a massive rearmament and is willing to clear out old ammo stores to be replaced by modern ones. (New Voice of Ukraine)

Above: Moscow Patriarch supplicants gathered this morning to bow and pray for Muscovy monks who have to leave the ancient Kyivan-Rus monastery complex today.  (Slovo i Dilo)

Above: UK Ministry of Defence

• Bloomberg reported on March 28 that Russia has classified one-third of its entire budget, twice the amount as last year. Russia’s president has the right to cloak public spending in secrecy and is no doubt trying to hide the real cost of his war from the public. The bulk of the secret spending is attributed to military equipment purchases, soldier salaries and showcase infrastructure projects in occupied territories.
• In the same edition, Bloomberg looked at record low unemployment in Russia.  Sectors including education, construction, manufacturing and trade all show year-on-year decreases in employment offset by increases in military employment. Bloomberg experts predict Russia is reaching a crisis in manpower, “conscription and the recruitment of contractors, compounded by the exodus of Russians from the country, led to a decrease in the male labor pool and a shortage in many industries.”
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 27 removing the upper age limit from Russian National Guard service in occupied Ukrainian. The decree fast tracks requirements for medical and psychological testing and identification. Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko noted that this decree allows the Kremlin to recruit residents of occupied territories without a Russian passport.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: As the enemy steps up the attempted assault on Avdiivka, Donetsk, its tank losses are escalating too. The newly formed 10th Tank Regiment is repeating the same mistakes in Avdiivka as it did early in Vuhledar. ”Soldiers from the newly-formed 3rd Army Corps are often drunk, use obsolete weapons and receive poor training in Belarus.”  Moscow has lost over 3000 tanks – destroyed and captured – since the beginning of the war. (Photo: Warthog Defense)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 172,340 (+610)
• Tanks, 3,609 (+7)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,966 (0)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,659/526 (+6/1)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 277 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 305/291 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,239 (+4)
• Cruise missiles, 911 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,507 (+5)
• Special equipment, 288 (+1)

GENERAL STAFF STRIKES ON CIVILIANS

Above:  Cities, towns and villages leveled to the ground are a familiar sight along the frontlines.  This time it’s Blahodatne in Mykolaiv Oblast.  (Ukraine Media Crisis Center)

Glory to Ukraine!
The 399th day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Over the past day, the enemy launched 18 air strikes and 3 missile strikes, launched 50 rocket salvo fire attacks on the positions of our troops and the civilian infrastructure of populated areas.
• The probability of launching missile and air strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high, because the enemy continues to ignore the laws and customs of war, and continues to use terror tactics against the civilian population. On March 28, as a result of a missile attack on the infrastructure of the city of Bogodukhiv, Kharkiv region, civilians were injured and private houses were damaged.
• During the past day, the enemy shelled the areas of the settlements of Kucherivka, Bilopylla, and Volfyne of the Sumy region, as well as the areas of the settlements of Timofiivka, Chervona Zorya, Veterinarne, Strelecha, Hlyboke, Krasne, Staritsa, Ohirtseve, Komisarov, Ustinivka, Vilkhuvatka, and Stroivka in the Kharkiv
• In the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, during the past day, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Krokhmalne, Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Bilogorivka, Verkhnyokamianske and Berestov settlements.
• In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy continues its assault on the city of Bakhmut. However, our defenders courageously hold the city, repel numerous enemy attacks. During the past day, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Predtechine and Ozaryanivka settlements of the Donetsk region. He shelled the settlements of Vasyukivka, Minkivka, Orihovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Khromove, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba, Shumy, and Mayorsk.
• On the Avdiyiv and Maryinsk directions, the enemy carried out offensive actions in the direction of the settlements of Novokalynove, Krasnohorivka, Stepove, Pervomaiske and Maryinka, without success. He carried out shelling of populated areas. In particular, Novokalynove, Krasnohorivka, Gostre, Georgiivka, Stepove, Lastochkine, Avdiivka, Tonenka, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk region came under the fire of the occupiers.
• In the Shakhtarsky direction, during the past day, the enemy fired in the areas of Vugledar, Zolota Niva, Velyka Novosilka and Vremivka settlements of the Donetsk
• The enemy continues to conduct defensive actions in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson He shelled the settlements of Novosilka, Novopil of the Donetsk region; Gulyaipole, Biloghirya, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka and Novoandriivka of the Zaporizhzhia region; Antonivka and the city of Kherson.

Support the Armed Forces! United we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Volunteers and contractors repair residential housing in the Kharkiv region.  The effort is, in part, carried out by the Recovery Army, a program initiated by the GoU to put unemployed people back to work to rebuild communities.  The project employs local residents who are out of work as well as IDPs to work on, for example, construction, security and humanitarian services. (Kharkiv Comments)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 28. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Krokhmalne (20km northwest of Svatove), Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), Verkhnokamyanske (18km south of Kreminna), and Berestove (30km south of Kreminna).
• Ukrainian Eastern Group reported on March 28 that there were 13 combat clashes along this line in the last day and that, while Russia has concentrated some of its best troops in this area, they are suffering widespread shortages of armored vehicles.
• Geolocated footage posted on March 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces have made a limited advance in a forest area near Dibrova, about 6km west of Kreminna.
• The Russian occupation administration is refusing to demobilize students in Luhansk. Russia has drafted 654 students of whom 300 are currently fighting in Ukraine.
• Novaya Gazeta Europe described the enemy’s summer 2022 volunteer recruitment campaign, estimating up to 15,000 volunteers deployed to Ukraine over summer 2022.  The Russian MoD apparently did not keep official track of volunteer formations. Regional officials stopped releasing information about deceased volunteers and silenced families by threatening to remove social benefits relating to the deaths of their relatives.
• The local hospital in Bilovodsk, Luhansk, has been converted into a military hospital with 200 beds. Civilians have been told to seek help elsewhere.

DONETSK

Above:  New York Times

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut on March 28 and have made advances within the city. Geolocated footage published on March 28 suggests that Russian forces likely advanced in southern Bakhmut and up to the Bakhmut City Market in Central Bakhmut. Wagner Group forces have likely taken the AZOM industrial complex in northern Bakhmut and continue to make gains within the city.
• The tempo of Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut has decreased over the past three days and that this may indicate that Russian forces are regrouping. Russia may be diverting resources away from Bakhmut to intensify offensives on Avdiivka and/ or may recommit personnel and resources to offensive operations on Bakhmut after regrouping.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City frontline on March 28. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Avdiivka itself, Stepove (7km northwest of Avdiivka), and within 27km southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, and Marinka.
• The Donetsk People’s Republic lauded plans to create a ferry line between Mariupol, Donetsk, and occupied Crimea and Sochi.
• For refusing to perform a combat mission, about 70 people from the units of the Nevsky and Veterans volunteer formations were disarmed and taken to Makiivka, Donetsk. A similar incident occurred when the personnel of the enemy’s reconnaissance company operating in the Avdiivka direction refused to carry out orders.

ZAPORIZHZHIA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above:  After liberation, Kherson became the most shelled city outside of Donbas. On February 1, the city council reported that the enemy had struck Kherson 1,739 times. Currently, the left bank of Kherson Oblast lives under enemy control, without constant internet access and with inflated prices for products. Focus talked with residents of the Kherson region, who told about life under regular shelling and under enemy occupation.

Video:  On March 28, five McDonalds restaurants reopened in Odesa. On a cold and blustery day, traffic jams developed around take out windows at several locations. 

В Одессе сегодня две беды: падающие от сильного ветра деревья и Макдональдс. #Одесса pic.twitter.com/pAoqee8XWC

— ОДЕССКАЯ ИСТОРИЯ (@Odessa_history) March 28, 2023

Map via ISW

• “Something is happening on the opposite bank of the reservoir,” wrote the head of Nikopol district administration in a Telegram post on March 28. Intercepted communications shows that the occupiers are preparing something for the  arrival of an International Atomic Energy Agency team. The administration warned residents about the possibility of Russian false flag operations and shelling during the IAEA mission visit to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant later this week.
• The Zaporizhzhya occupation administration announced a plan to rapidly develop infrastructure in Zaporizhia Oblast to accommodate an influx of Russian teachers, civil servants, doctors, and law enforcement personnel. The alleged importation of Russias to staff administrative and law enforcement roles suggests that occupying officials are struggling to fill these positions with willing and loyal local collaborators and are trying to repopulate occupied territory with Russias as part of a wider campaign to destroy Ukrainian culture.
• Russian forces reportedly decreased the intensity of shelling in Kherson Oblast. Russian forces have not shelled the Dnipro-Bug Estuary from the Kinburn Spit over the past three days due to poor weather conditions. Ukrainian strikes on enemy ammunition warehouses and artillery systems are undermining Russian logistics and forcing them to reduce activities on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
• Kherson occupation authorities plan to open a railway between occupied Kherson Oblast and occupied Crimea before the start of the summer tourist season. In addition, they claim that funds have already been allocated for a four-lane road along the Sea of Azov that will connect Dzhankoy, occupied Crimea, to Rostov Oblast through Berdyansk.
• Kherson occupation authorities warned locals on March 28 that anyone who refuses to accept rubles or attempts to sabotage ruble use in occupied Kherson Oblast will face criminal prosecution. The punitive approach to coercing ruble use indicates that occupation officials have largely failed to incentivize the rubleization process.