Victory Chronicles
-DAY 383

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: The protests in Georgia are demonstrating the on-going post-Soviet tug-of-war between proponents of the European vector and Russia’s influence campaign in the neighborhood it craves to control.  Georgia’s ruling party appears interested in the latter. After backing off a new Kremlin-style law designed to stifle civil society.  Georgia’s ruling party told Ukraine to mind its own business, calling Ukraine’s support for the Georgian protesters a provocation.  Former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili, who led the 2003 Georgian Rose Revolution against Kremlin influence said he is close to death after allegedly being poisoned.  He wrote a warning to protesters to stay vigilant under the shadow of a vengeful Kremlin. (NBC News)

Above: Ministry of Defence

Above: A destroyed classroom in a school hit by Russian rockets in the southern Ukrainian village of Zelenyi Hai. Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has put children in residential institutions at extreme risk.  Deputy Ukrainian Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated on March 12 that Russian officials have illegally deported 2,161 Ukrainian orphans to Russia. Ms Vereshchuk stated that the total number of children deported to Russia may be approximately 150,000.

Human Rights Watch released  a report on March 13 detailing Russia’s program to forcibly take . Ukrainian children to Russia, inflicting “traumatic experiences.” HRW said documented instances of the forcible transfer of children from Ukrainian residential institutions to Russia amounted to a war crime. HRW estimates Ukraine had 105,000 children in residential institutions before the start of the war in February last year and almost half had disabilities. (RFERL)

Above: ISW reported that Moscow has allocated about $18 million to conduct “medical examinations” on children in occupied territories in order to identify and deport them to Russia under the guise of needing more advanced medical care. Thirteen brigades of russian doctors have been shipped in to examine “almost 70,000 children aged 2 to 17 in occupied territories of Ukraine.” 

Top Countries where ♀️ Female Life Expectancy exceed ♂️ Male the Most, 2023:

🇱🇹Lithuania → 10.7 Years
🇷🇺Russia → 10.5
🇧🇾Belarus → 9.8
🇺🇦Ukraine → 9.7
🇱🇻Latvia → 9.6
🇸🇻El Salvador → 9.2
🇸🇿Eswatini (Swaziland) → 8.7
🇬🇪Georgia → 8.7
🇲🇩Moldova → 8.5
🇰🇿Kazakhstan → 8.4

— The World Ranking (@worldranking_) March 13, 2023

• A Russian milblogger claimed on March 12 that there is a high desertion rate among SPETSNAZ forces, stating that no SPETSNAZ units are at their full complement and that some SPETSNAZ commanders have fled their units despite having received generous salaries for the past ten years.
• The United Kingdom Ministry of Defence reported on March 12 that Russian military personnel from eastern regions of Russia die in Ukraine at per capita rates up to fortyfold of those of Russian personnel from Moscow City. For example, Kazakh and Tartar minorities make up 75 percent of casualties among Russian military personnel from Astrakhan Oblast.
• The Russian state-owned news agency in Ural claimed on March 10 that Russia is preparing a large-scale recruitment campaign set to launch April 1 aimed at bringing in about 400,000 new contract soldiers. Governors’ administrations  reportedly have begun preparations for the coming campaign. ISW assesses that it is extremely unlikely that Russian recruitment efforts could succeed in recruiting a significant number of soldiers, much less the very high target of 400,000.

Kremlin-Wager Conflict

• On Sunday, ISW focused on the rivalry between Putin and Wagner Group.  They assessed that the Russian MoD may be trying to expend Wagner forces – and Wagner’s influence – in Bakhmut.
• Wagner has committed its elite forces to offensives on three sides of Bakhmut but may have suffered huge losses. Geolocated footage published on February 18 showed 43 buses with Wagner mercenaries moving from Crimea via Melitopol possibly to reinforce positions in Bakhmut.
• Wagner’s criminal leader likely convinced Putin that he would be able to seize Bakhmut if given access to the Russian MoD’s ammunition stocks and allowed to expand his existing ultranationalist recruitment campaigns to include regular Russians and prisoners after Wagner’s help in seizing Popasna, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast.
• Putin’s decision to support Wagner likely angered the MoD, who were forced to share limited equipment and ammunition with the mercenaries.
• Putin allowed the Russian MoD to retake control of the Bakhmut direction from Wagner in January after they failed to deliver the promised victory over Bakhmut by the end of 2022.
• Putin and the Russian MoD may use Wagner’s criminal leader as a scapegoat for the costly drive on Bakhmut once the offensive culminates. Putin has likely not decided yet whether he will spare Prigozhin, and Wagner’s fate likely depends on its ability to convince the Kremlin of its loyalty.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: TVP World

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 159,800 (+710)
• Tanks, 3,474 (+8)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,774 (+5)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,503/493 (+16/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 259 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 304/289 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,109 (+1)
• Cruise missiles, 907 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,354 (+6)
• Special equipment, 251 (+9)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: For absolutely no strategic military purpose, Moscow bombs the people of Kharkiv on a daily basis. (CNN)

Glory to Ukraine!
The three hundred and eighty-third day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The Russian Federation continues to use terror tactics, carries out indiscriminate shelling of populated areas, thereby grossly violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law.
• Over the past day, the enemy launched 3 missile strikes, in particular, on the object of civil infrastructure in the city of Slovyansk, Donetsk region. Also, the enemy carried out 8 airstrikes and launched 49 attacks from rocket salvo systems.
• The level of missile threat remains high throughout the territory of Ukraine.
• During the day, the occupiers shelled the areas of the Volfine settlements of the Sumy region and Strelecha, Mali Prohody, Krasne, Velikiy Burluk and Bologivka settlements of the Kharkiv
• In the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy attacked the areas of Dvorichna, Nevske, Chervonpopivka, Kreminna, Dibrova, Bilogorivka and Verkhnyokamianske settlements. He carried out artillery shelling of the areas of Dvorichna, Zapadne, Masyutivka, Kup’yansk, Krokhmalne, Pischane and Cherneshchyna settlements of the Kharkiv region; Novoselivske, Makiivka, Nevske, Dibrova and Bilogorivka in the Luhansk region, as well as Siversk and Spirne in the Donetsk
• In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy does not stop trying to capture the city of Bakhmut. Also, our defenders repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Vasyukivka, Minkivka, Orihovo-Vasylivka and Ivanivske settlements. In particular, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Predtechine, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba, Mayorsk and New York of the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.
• On the Avdiivsk, Marinsk, and Shakhtarsk directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Kamianka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Severne, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, and Pobieda settlements. Areas of settlements near the contact line, including Berdychi, Avdiyivka, Tonenke, Vodyane, Georgiivka, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Gostre, Pobyeda, Vugledar, Vremivka, and Neskuchne of the Donetsk region, were hit by enemy shelling.
• In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, the enemy is conducting defensive operations. Areas of settlements near the contact line, in particular, Olhivske, Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Biloghirya, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Novoandriivka and Kamianske of the Zaporizhzhia region, were shelled; Beryslav, Ponyativka, Dniprovske and Bilozerka in the Kherson region and Tamarina and Ochakiv in the Mykolaiv

Believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! We will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Kharkiv metro station. After the March 9 missile attack on Kharkiv – one of the worst in the last year – Kharkiv is still repairing and restoring the energy grid.  he subway system was partially restarted on Sunday, but electric public street transportation is still out. In the meantime, the city is organizing gas-fueled buses to keep residents moving.  During the attack, Kharkiv was hit by a total of eleven S-300 missiles and X-22 cruise missiles. (Lenta)

Map via ISW

• The enemy is trying to break through the defenses of our troops in the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions. He led unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Dvorichna, Nevske, Chervonpopivka, Kreminna, Dibrova, Bilogorivka and Verkhnyokamianske settlements.

DONETSK

Above: View of the Mykolaivska church and bridge before the war. The Svyatohirsk bridge leads across the Siversky-Donets river to a 16th century Orthodox monastery and cave complex that was damaged by enemy bombing in March 2022. (Wikimedia Commons)

Above: March 9, 2023, the Svyatohirst bridge across the Siversky-Donets river north of Slovyansk, Donetsk. The evergreen town of Svyatohirsk had been developing into a resort destination with multiple recreation and business meeting complexes. (The Guardian)

A close-up map of the approximate situation around the city of Bakhmut.

After the capture of Dubovo-Vasylivka, 🇷🇺 have continued to advance northwest from the settlement and along the highway. pic.twitter.com/M7I7fQoqIN

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) March 13, 2023

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut but have not completed a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement around the city. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fighting in the city, but Wagner Group fighters are likely becoming increasingly pinned in urban areas, such as the AZOM industrial complex, and are therefore finding it difficult to make significant advances.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Avdiivka and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

ZAPORIZHZHIA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above:  Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva went to Davy Jones’ locker in April 2023.  The UK Defence Journal republished an editorial outlining how Ukraine – whose Navy was mostly eradicated in 2014 –  “managed to undermine Russia’s naval dominance by demonstrating innovation and initiative.” CEPA published a story on how Ukraine has forced the mighty enemy Black Sea Fleet onto the defensive. “They have done an extraordinary job armed with very little, and have cleverly exploited new technologies to force the Russian navy into a defensive posture.” (Photo: The Conversation)