Victory Chronicles
-DAY 376

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above: Over the weekend, the world’s mass and social media discussed the fight for Bakhmut including conflicting reports from Wagner, that claims capture is imminent,  versus Ukrainian Armed Forces, that claim the situation is under control.  Ukrainian military says it’s reaching its goal of drastically degrading Russian capabilities ahead of a planned counteroffensive when the ground dries in late spring.  The Kyiv Independent interviewed soldiers on rotation in nearby Kostyatynivka who claimed that Ukrainian losses are also high.  (The Guardian)

Above:  The Washington Post interviewed a history teacher who left Russia in November 2021, now teaching Russian emigre children at the Liberation School in Yerevan.  He claims he is now free from Moscow’s propagandistic pressure on curricula.  “‘They [the children] are well aware of the consequences that await Russia after the war, and they are aware of the reasons for Russia’s failures at the present stage,’ he said, adding that there have been instances of children breaking down in tears in class. ’They want to know the causes of the war and its historical origins but are also deeply concerned for the future…how future generations of Russians can improve the situation in Russia and relations with Ukraine and Ukrainians.’”

Above: Ukraine’s National Music Academy named by the Soviets after Tchaikovsky in 1940, is located on Maidan Nezalezhnosti in downtown Kyiv. Students are demanding that the Russian composer’s name be removed in the nationwide campaign to de-rusify Ukraine. (Photo: Kyiv City Guide)

• The Russian offensive to capture Bakhmut will likely culminate whether Russian forces capture the city or not, and the Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months. Russian forces likely lack the capability to further reinforce the Bakhmut area significantly without pulling forces from another area of the front line due to the lack of untapped reserves
• Russian forces currently do not have the manpower and equipment necessary to sustain offensive operations at scale for a renewed offensive toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, let alone a campaign to capture all of Donetsk Oblast. Russia will have to mobilize considerably more personnel and fundamentally transform its military industry to be able to support such operations.
• Even enemy milbloggers began to question Moscow’s all-or-nothing strategy for Bakhmut as it appears to compromise the invader’s ability to withstand a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• The likely imminent culmination of the Russian offensive around Bakhmut, the already culminated Russian offensive around Vuhledar, and the stalling Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast are likely setting robust conditions for Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
• The Chinese government is reportedly displeased with the Kremlin over the publicization of arms sales discussions. The Economist reported on March 2 that an unspecified European official claimed that the Chinese government wanted discussions of lethal aid to remain secret so that China could maintain its image as a neutral mediator. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday said China had declared it won’t supply Russia with weapons for its war against Ukraine, suggesting that Berlin has received bilateral assurances from Beijing on the issue.
• The head of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee called on Russian private companies to purchase their own air defense systems, creating the prospect of hundreds of businesses deploying their own air defense systems independent of the Russian military.
• The Wagner Group reportedly opened at least three new recruitment centers at Russian gymnasiums between March 2 and 4 following the loss of ability to recruit prisoners.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Destroyed Russian equipment has become a tourist attraction across Europe.  Here, a lady in Vilnius poses her pet on a tank exhibit. (RFERL)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 153,770 (+650)
• Tanks, 3,423 (+9)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,703 (+11)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,433/488 (+7/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 250 (+2)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 302/289 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,086 (+15)
• Cruise missiles, 873 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,307 (+8)
• Special equipment, 234 (+2)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: It’s not Dresden after WWII – it’s a year of Russia World in Maryinka, Donetsk. The enemy’s military proudly published these images over the weekend, boasting about how they brought apocalypse to Ukraine. (Ukrainska Pravda)

Glory to Ukraine!
Day 376 of the russian full-scale invasion has begun.

• The russian federation’s main focus is the offensive operations on Kup’yans’k, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Shakhtars’ke axes. During the day of March 5, Ukrainian troops repelled over 95x enemy attacks on these axes, including in the vicinities of settlements of Bilohorivka, Nevs’ke (Luhansk oblast), Zaliznyans’ke, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, and Ivanivske (Donetsk oblast).
• The enemy continues to violate the rules of International Humanitarian Law, striking and shelling with artillery the civilian facilities and homes, and attempts to destroy the critical infrastructure of Ukraine.
• During the day of March 5, the adversary launched 31x air strikes and 8x missile strikes. The invaders launched more than 70x MLRS attacks. The threat of further missile strikes by Russia is highly probable across Ukraine.
• During the day of March 6, the occupants fired mortars and artillery at Iskryskivshchyna, Volfyne (Sumy oblast), Budarky, Veterynarne, Vil’khuvatka, Strilecha, Krasne, Ternova, and Ohirtseve (Kharkiv oblast).
• Kup’yans’k and Lyman axes: the enemy fired artillery at the vicinities of settlements of Dvorichna, Hryanykivka, Masyutivka, Pishchane (Kharkiv oblast), Kuzemivka, Bilohorivka, Nevs’ke, Chervonopopivka, Serebryans’ke forestry (Luhansk oblast), Terny, Spirne, and Rozdolivka (Donetsk oblast).
• Bakhmut axis: the adversary continues its attempts to assault the town of Bakhmut and surrounding settlements. The invaders shelled Zaliznyans’ke, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Bohdanivka, Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, Klishchiivka, Shyroka Balka, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba, Hryhorivka, Maiors’k, and New York (Donetsk oblast).
• Avdiivka and Shakhtars’ke axes: the occupants conducted unsuccessful offensive operations towards Krasnohorivka, Kam’yanka, Sjeverne, Pobjeda, and Mar’inka (Donetsk oblast). The enemy shelled the vicinities of 21x settlements. Among them are Vesele, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Berdychi, Pervomais’ke, Krasnohorivka, and Vuhledar.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: the adversary is defending, attempting to enable a changeover to the offensive in some areas. More than 40x settlements came under fire, including Novosilka, Vremivka (Donetsk oblast), Zaliznychne, Hulyaipole, Kam’yans’ke (Zaporizhzhia oblast), Vesele, Beryslav, Chornobaivka, Antonivka (Kherson oblast), and the city of Kherson. The attacks have caused civilian casualties and damaged civilian infrastructure.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Moscow stormed Sumy Oblast in February 2022. The enemy onslaught was repelled by “few thousand local volunteers armed with rifles, limited anti-tank weapons and no armed vehicles or heavy weaponry.” After four days of failing to take the city, the invaders went around Sumy city to the northeastern outskirts of Kyiv. The enemy continues to shell civilian infrastructure in Sumy and Chernihiv daily. (Ukrainska Pravda)

Maps via ISW

• Ukrainian officials ordered the mandatory evacuation of vulnerable civilians from Kupyansk due to Russian shelling. Russian forces are within the 25km range that allows them to shell Kupyansk with 152mm tube artillery, which poses considerable risk to civilians.
• A Russian commander inaccurately downplayed Russian operations in Luhansk and Kharkiv to set informational conditions for the potential culmination of the Russian offensive in this sector of the frontline. In reality, Moscow has committed major forces to the Svatove-Kreminna axis (almost the entirety of the 144th and 3rd Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 20th Combined Arms Army as well as regiment-sized elements of the 98th, 76th, and 106th Air Assault Division of the Russian Airborne Forces) but have failed to make substantial gains in this area.

DONETSK

Above: From the trenches near Maryinka, Donetsk, fighting from the “zero line position” – so close that the enemy is clearly visible. (New York Times)

A close-up map of the approximate situation around the city of Bakhmut.

🇷🇺 have advanced west of the city reaching the road between Bakhmut and Bohdanivka.

🇷🇺 have made further advances within the city both in the north and south. pic.twitter.com/51n4KRgfCp

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) March 6, 2023

Video: Radio Liberty reporter surveys the damage to a school in Kramatorsk on Monday A 4th grader says the school was very beautiful before the shelling, hopes the school is rebuilt. 

Consequences of shelling in Kramatorsk. As a result of a missile attack by Russian troops, a school was destroyed and 15 apartment buildings were damaged. Fortunately, there were no casualties. pic.twitter.com/2YcKVlxTVB

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) March 6, 2023

Map via ISW

• Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of Bakhmut but have not yet forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw and will likely not be able to encircle the city soon. Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing from their positions on the eastern bank of the Bakhmutka River given recent geolocated footage of the destruction of the railway bridge over the river in northeastern Bakhmut on March 3.
• Urban warfare in Bakhmut may further degrade already exhausted Russian mixed forces in a fashion similar to that caused by Ukraine’s fighting withdrawal from the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line, which effectively ended Russian offensive operations in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the summer of 2022.
• ISW continues to assess that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut remains strategically sound as it continues to consume Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer excessive casualties. Ukrainian forces are unlikely to withdraw from Bakhmut all at once and may pursue a gradual fighting withdrawal to exhaust Russian forces through continued urban warfare.

ZAPORIZHZHYA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: In Mykolaiv, the national ballroom dance ensemble “Gratsia” performed publicly for the first time since the war began on March 1.  (Suspilne)

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces are attempting to improve their tactical positions in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts to resume offensive operations in some areas.
• In order to mislead the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the enemy has been moving convoy between Nova Kakhovka, Kherson, and Armyansk, Crimea. These actions cause dissatisfaction among the personnel of the russian occupation forces due to insufficient fuel stocks and the lack of even a hint of the maneuvers’ effectiveness.

🏆🎾 #Ukrainian tennis player Marta Kostyuk has won WTA Tour in #Austin.

In the final, Marta defeated 🇷🇺 player Varvara Grachova.
📹 WTA pic.twitter.com/Mr9Z70rBF6

— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) March 6, 2023