Victory Chronicles
-DAY 365

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above:  The Polish turnout for President Biden’s remarks at the Royal Castle in Warsaw was large and enthusiastic. Poland has gained newfound influence and respect for its leadership in opposition to Moscow’s tyrannical ambition. (President Biden)

Above: European Commission President von der Leyen speaks with Polish PM Morawieski and Ukraine’s heavyweight Klitschko brothers about Ukraine’s EU membership prospects.  How can she say no? (Visegrad 24)

Above: A russian milblogger shared pictures of russian artillery transported to the front. (ChrisO)

• Ukraine’s head of intelligence Kyrylo Budanov spoke with Forbes about the first year of the current war and analysis of the future. Key points:
  • The major Russian offensive is underway in eastern Ukraine, although it is hard to detect. Their goal is to take all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts by March 31.
  • The enemy has about 30% of its missile stock with a production capacity of about 40 per month. About 35% of their equipment remains in long-term storage, in need of refurbishment. .
  • The enemy is running low on ammunition, trying to conserve, using it in Bakhmut, Lyman and Vuhledar. They are trying to ramp up domestic production and procure from North Korea. The shortage of ammo leads them to take a different tactical approach – waves of infantry attacks.
  • The enemy mobilized about 316,000 men in the campaign started last fall and continuing covertly.  Ninety percent of those were sent immediately to the front without training or gear. Losses are “sky high”. 
  • The battle for Bakhmut is containing russian forces in a concentrated area while Ukraine inflicts catastrophic losses.
  • In the mid to late spring, decisive battles will begin in Ukraine’s favor. The score is 1-1 and the clock is at seventy minutes [out of 90].
• Polish President Duda met with Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Wednesday after she attended the speech of the US president in Warsaw. Mr Duda pledged Poland’s full support in ensuring a free European Moldova including help shutting down Moscow’s current destabilization operations.
• Putin has likely ordered Russian bureaucrats to prepare for large-scale mobilization, but Russia lacks the capacity to train hundreds of thousands of new soldiers or mobilized reservists and will likely not be able to equip them with artillery or armored vehicles in 2023.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Russian thermobaric multiple rocket launcher destroyed in Donetsk oblast last week. Also known as vacuum bombs, thermobarics consume all the oxygen within a 300-yard radius.  Moscow first used thermobarics in the destruction of Grozny, Chechnya, in 1999. (Video: MSN)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 145,850 (+790)
• Tanks, 3,350 (+16)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,593 (+24)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,352/471 (+7/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 244 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 299/287 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2029 (+3)
• Cruise missiles, 873 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,215 (+3)
• Special equipment, 228 (+2)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Lyman, Donetsk, liberated  in September, is under increasing bombardment within the enemy’s new offensive. (New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine!
The three hundred and sixty-fifth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The Russian Federation focuses its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtar directions.
• Yesterday, our defenders repelled about 90 enemy attacks in the indicated directions.
• At the same time, the enemy launched 10 missile and 19 air strikes. He carried out 37 attacks from rocket salvo systems. Once again, peaceful towns and villages and civilians suffered. The threat of Russian missile strikes remains high throughout the territory of Ukraine.
• The enemy fired mortars and artillery at the settlements of Mikhalchyna Sloboda, Chernihiv region; Sopych, Korenyok, Hirky, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Ryzhivka, Basivka of the Sumy region, as well as 18 districts of settlements in the Kharkiv region. Among them are Timofiivka, Strelecha, Staritsa, Vovchansk, Vilcha, Budarki, Ambarne and Bologhivka.
• On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near the settlements of Stelmakhivka, Kreminna, Belogorivka, and Fedorivka. He carried out artillery shelling in the areas of Kamianka, Dvorichna, Hryanikyvka, Kotlyarivka and Berestovka settlements of the Kharkiv region; Nevske, Chervonopivka, Kreminna, Kuzmyne, Dibrova, Belogorivka in the Luhansk region and Ivanivka and Yampolivka in the Donetsk
• In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy continues to attack the positions of our troops near the settlements of Orihovo-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, Yagidne, Maloiliinivka, Bakhmut. Actively conducts aerial reconnaissance to adjust artillery fire. More than 20 settlements, in particular, Spirne, Vesele, Bilogorivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, Yagidne, Bakhmut and Ozaryanivka of the Donetsk region, were shelled.
• On the Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions, the enemy launched an offensive near Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Vodyanyi, Nevelsky, Maryinka, Pobieda, Vugledar, and Prechistivka. In total, during the past day, the occupiers carried out 43 unsuccessful attacks near the mentioned settlements. Artillery shelling of 22 districts of settlements was recorded. Among them are Novobakhmutivka, Vesele, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, Paraskoviivka, Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, Prechistivka and Velika Novosilka in Donetsk
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the areas of the settlements of Vremivka, Novosilka, Zelene Pole and Novopil of the Donetsk region and Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Novodanilivka and Kamianske – Zaporizhzhia and Vyshchetarasivka and Marganets in the Dnipropetrovsk region were hit by fire.
• In the Kherson direction, the city of Kherson was damaged by the artillery fire of the Russian occupation forces, as well as, in particular, Tyaginka, Novotyaginka, Antonivka, Zelenivka, and Chornobayivka.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Landscape in Kharkiv region. (New York Times)

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces are attempting to increase their offensive along the Kupyansk-Lyman line, conducting several unsuccessful operations in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. Ukrainian forces repelled assaults on Kuzemivka (17km northwest of Svatove) and Dibrova (about 10km southeast of Lyman).
• LNR occupation officials turned off mobile internet due to “security issues,” a possible indication that Russian forces have likely started an offensive in the Lyman
• Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian reconnaissance-in-force in the vicinity of Bolohivka (about 40km northeast of Kupyansk), forcing the sabotage and reconnaissance group to retreat to Russia. A Russian Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted to infiltrate the Fyholivka area (approximately 22km northeast of Kupyansk). Geolocated footage showed Russian SPETSNAZ correcting artillery fire on Ukrainian positions near Fyholivka and Novomlynsk (approximately 20km northeast of Kupyansk).

DONETSK

Above: Fortress Bakhmut.  (Forbes)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued to make marginal advances near Bakhmut on February 22. Geolocated footage posted on February 22 shows that Russian forces advanced towards the E40 highway south of Zaliznyanske and north of Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Bakhmut; northwest of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka(6km northwest) and Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest); north of Bakhmut near Yahidne (less than 2km north), Fedorivka (17km north), and Berkhivka (4km north); and south of Bakhmut near Kurdyumivka (11km south).
• Russian forces increased their tempo of operations around Avdiivka but did not secure significant territorial gains on February 22. Russian forces launched an unsuccessful offensive against Novobakhmutivka, Vodyane, Nevelske, and Marinka. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made slight advances north of Vesele (6km north of Avdiivka).
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 22. Russian forces launched an unsuccessful offensive operation near Preshystiivka.
• Milbloggers posted footage purporting to show Ukrainian strikes against targets in Donetsk City, Makiivka, Horlivka, Khartsyzk, Debaltseve, Ilovaisk, and Mariupol—all within range of regular HIMARS rockets and most (apart from Mariupol) within range of rocket artillery.
• In connection with the failure of the offensive and significant losses in manpower near Vuhledar, the personnel of the volunteer, so-called Cossack detachment, which was assigned to the 155th brigade of marine infantry of the Pacific fleet, refused to further participate in offensive actions.

ZAPORIZHZHYA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: Servicemen and Mykolaiv Governor Vitalii Kim inspect drone defense gear sent by Latvia.  (Vitalii Kim)

Maps via ISW