Victory Chronicles
-DAY 362

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY: NINE YEARS AGO, THREAT OF DEMOCRATIC UKRAINE SPURRED KREMLIN’S INVASION

Above: “On February 18-20, 2014, more than a hundred people died downtown Kyiv, several dozen went missing, over a thousand were injured, and hundreds were detained and tortured.” February 20 is the day Ukraine remembers the sacrifice of ordinary citizens who gave their lives in defense of democracy. They used paving stones to defend against the Russia-backed regime’s violent assault.  (Unian)

Above: ISW reported that Ukrainian forces will be able to deploy only 50 Western-provided tanks to frontline areas by April, out of a promised total of 320 tanks. Allies waited too long to start the time-consuming process of approvals, preparations and personnel training to take advantage of an early spring window opportunity as the enemy struggles to regroup and build capabilities.  A war materiel journalist gives a detailed breakdown. 

• US  Vice President Kamala Harris announced on February 18 that the US had determined that Russia had committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine. Ms Harris stated during the Munich Security Conference that Russian forces “have pursued a widespread and systematic attack against a civilian population” by committing murder, torture, rape, and deportation. Harris noted that Russian forces forcibly deported hundreds of thousands of people from Ukraine to Russia, including children.
• The major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, and Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter.
• Russian tank losses amount to the equivalent of around 16 tank regiments or half of its pre-war inventory of available tanks. Oryx verified over 1,000 distinct Russian tank losses and 500 captured tanks on February 9.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the DNR 1st Army Corps and LNR 2nd Army Corps have been absorbed into Russian Armed Forces.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Ukraine protects the identities of enemy POWs “because of the possibility of retribution once they are returned.”  The Russians under Stalin infamously executed and imprisoned hundreds of thousands of their own POWs. (New York Times)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 143,680 (+820)
• Tanks, 3,316 (+6)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,553 (+8)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,334/471 (+7/2)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 243 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 299/287 +(1/0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,018 (+2)
• Cruise missiles, 873 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,209 (+13)
• Special equipment, 225 (+1)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above:  Damaged energy substation. (CBS News)

The CEO of Ukraine's national power company tells 60 Minutes how the country has responded to Russia's attacks on its energy infrastructure. https://t.co/1c6bqd4MN8

— CBS News (@CBSNews) February 20, 2023

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and sixty-second day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The Russian Federation continues to wage full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine. The enemy does not stop destroying the critical infrastructure of our state, continues to strike, carry out artillery shelling of civilian objects and houses of the civilian population.
• Over the past day, the enemy launched 10 missile and 25 air strikes (Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions). Fired 62 shots from multiple rocket launcher systems. There are wounded and dead among the civilian population.
• The threat of strikes by the Russian Federation remains high throughout Ukraine.
• Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of Hryanivikka settlements of the Kharkiv region; Belogorivka, Luhansk region; Vasyukivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, Bakhmut and Ivanivske of the Donetsk
• During the past day, the areas of Karpovychi, Tymonovichi, Yanzhulivka settlements of Chernihiv region were subjected to enemy shelling; Bunyakyne, Atynske, Stukalyvka, Zapsilya and Pokrovka – Sumy, as well as Strelecha, Staritsa, Vovchanski Khutory, Stroivka in Kharkiv
• On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy shelled the settlements of Kamianka, Kolodyazne, Dvorichna, Hryanivikka, Kupyansk, Berestov, and Pershotravneve of the Kharkiv region; Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Nevske, Dibrova, Bilogorivka in the Luhansk region and Bilogorivka and Rozdolivka in the Donetsk
• On the Bakhmut direction, Vasyukivka, Berkhivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Bila Gora, Oleksandro-Shultine, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Mayorsk and New York came under fire. In addition, the enemy used army aviation to launch a strike in the Bakhmut area.
• On the Avdiiv and Shakhtarsk directions, the occupiers shelled the settlements of Novobakhmutivka, Vesele, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, Pobyeda, Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, Bogoyavlenka, Shakhtarske, Zolota Niva, Velika Novosilka, Vremivka, and Neskuchne in the Donetsk .
• In the Zaporizhzhya region, the areas of the settlements of Novosilka and Novopil of the Donetsk region and Poltavka, Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Biloghirya, Novodanilivka, Novoandriivka and Shcherbaki – Zaporizhzhya suffered fire damage.
• In the Kherson direction, Kherson, Burgunka, Tyaginka, Antonivka in the Kherson region, as well as Ochakiv in the Mykolayiv region were affected by fire. Peaceful people suffered.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Ukrainian soldiers observe enemy blanket shelling of villages in western Luhansk.  (Real Gazeta)

Maps via ISW

• The major phase of the Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast is underway although Russia likely lacks sufficient reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter. The absence of critical tank units suggests that the Russian military continues to struggle to replace equipment, especially tanks, lost during previous failed offensive operations.
• The Russian military has committed a large majority of the conventional Western Military District elements to its decisive offensive effort in Luhansk Oblast, leaving relatively few elements either in reserve or unobserved.
• ISW has observed elements of Russia’s WMD, supplemental Central Military District, Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic and airborne elements arrayed along the Luhansk Oblast frontline, with a specific concentration of units along the Svatove-Kreminna
• ISW has also observed reports that elements of the 4thTank Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army, of the 26th Tank Regiment of the 47thTank Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army, and of the 27th Separate Tank Brigade of 1stGuards Tank Army are deployed along the line from Svatove north toward Kupyansk.

DONETSK

Above: Anti-tank forces wait on a ridge near Bakhmut.  (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces likely secured marginal gains in the northern suburbs of Bakhmut and eastern outskirts of the city. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that degraded Wagner Group formations are narrowing the scope of their offensives in the Bakhmut area due to a lack of forces.
• Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk city and around Vuhledar.
• Russian forces likely do not have the potential to conduct large-scale assaults in Donetsk Oblast and are beginning to lose momentum along this sector of the front. Russian forces are committing motorized rifle detachments to offensive operations throughout Donetsk Oblast with insufficient equipment and without armored vehicle support.

ZAPORIZHZHYA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above:  Piles of books in Ukrainian language collected for destruction in Mariupol.  (Ukrainska Pravda)

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces are continuing to reinforce defensive positions in occupied Zaporizhia Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov published footage showing 43 buses with Wagner Group personnel moving via Melitopol in the Zaporizhia direction.
• Crimean occupation officials nationalized at least 10 million USD worth of Ukrainian property to support Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.