Victory Chronicles
-DAY 357

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY: UKRAINE UNDERSTANDS THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE DEFENSE OF BAKHMUT LIKE NO OTHERS

Above: A Maxar Technology satellite image of a facility known as Gorny Kluch on the Kamchatka Peninsula on the Pacific Ocean in October 2022. The camp is one of more than 40 locations in Russia verified by a team of researchers at Yale University to have been part of Russia’s system of camps for illegally abducted Ukrainian children. (NPR)

Above: The Soviet space shuttle ready for launch at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in 1988.  Today, the Baikonur city administration is offering USD $3,530 to residents who volunteer to fight in Ukraine. The Kazakhstan facility was first developed by the Russo-soviets as a long-range missile launch center and later the operations center for the space program.  

Above: During a news conference for the Ramstein-format Ukraine Defense Contact Group, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated that the coalition of 54 states assisting Ukraine’s defense will “support Ukraine’s fight for freedom over the long haul”. 

Mr Austin added that the effort to flow ammunition, new defense systems and armored vehicles at the same time that Ukrainians train to use them is logistically “a monumental task”. The Washington Post spoke to one Biden administration official who pointed out that the current nodes of distribution in Poland, Romania and Slovakia are in danger of being overwhelmed if countries wait until late March to start sending equipment. 

• The Yale School of Public Health released a report entitled, “Russia’s Systematic Program for the Re-Education & Adoption of Ukraine’s Children”.  Researchers documented six thousand children that were taken under the guise of “vacation camps” for political re-education and militarization in 43 camps from Crimea to the Russian far east.  One researcher explained that the Russian program is a “very clear and systematic” attempt to erase the history, culture and language of Ukraine from Ukraine’s youngest generation. Moscow is staging a week of  “internship on child advocacy for 60 DPR and LPR officials in Moscow.
• The Washington Post published a story on US military aid in which jittery military analysts questioned Ukraine’s continued defense of Bakhmut, arguing that northwestern Donetsk city is not a strategic city on the overall battlefield. It seems that Western analysts don’t understand that Bakhmut is a propaganda/ motivational victory for Russia, the fuel on which the war burns hot blue flames.  Bakhmut has turned into a mini-Stalingrad in Moscow mythology, even as Putin begins to resurrect the nihilistic cult of Stalinism.
• ISW analysts continue to defend Ukraine’s strategy that is based on knowing the enemy better than Western analysts. While not yet thundering, complaints are steadily growing in Russian society about needlessly wasted lives as troops appear to be increasingly demoralized. Besides the vitally important symbolic importance, Russia has pinned significant forces to the Bakhmut theater, suffering tremendous casualties and materiel degradation.
• The Russian MoD continues covert mobilization, prompting the United States Department of State to warn US-Russian dual citizens to refrain from traveling to Russia to avoid mobilization on February 13.
• The Head of the Norwegian Intelligence Service said that Russian ground forces on the Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia are now one-fifth of their strength before the invasion of Ukraine. Mr Stensønes assessed that approximately 3,000 servicemen previously stationed on the Kola Peninsula participated in the Russian invasion, of which up to half died in combat. A general reduction of Russian forces on EU borders belies Kremlin claims that it’s worried about NATO.
• For Valentine’s Day, 14 members of the Ukrainian and Tartar partisan group “Atesh” conducted an IED attack on a car carrying two Russian military personnel and two Russian special service representatives in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson. The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated that the explosion killed two and left two in serious condition.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Carcass of a thoroughly scavenged VAZ Lada 2109 Samara in Borshochova, north of Kharkiv. (NPR)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 139,770 (+690)
• Tanks, 3,290 (+4)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,507 (+7)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,303/466 (+4/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 236 (+2)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 298/286 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 2,011 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 857 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5161 (+6)
• Special equipment, 219 (+1)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above:  Life goes on in Kharkiv despite waves and waves of enemy bombardment.  (Aljazeera)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and fifty-seventh day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• During the day, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Donetsk region and 3 air strike In addition, 68 enemy attacks from rocket salvo systems were recorded, in particular, on civilian objects in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions.
• The threat of further Russian air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high.
• Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of more than 20 settlements. Among them – Hryanivikka of Kharkiv region; Nevske, Kreminna, Belogorivka, Luhansk region; Fedorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Pobyeda, Novomykhailivka, Vugledar and Prechistivka of the Donetsk
• The enemy does not stop mortar and artillery shelling of the positions of our troops, as well as settlements near the contact line. Areas of Yanzhulivka and Tymonovichi settlements of Chernihiv region were subjected to enemy shelling; Tovstodubove, Bilokopytove, Vovkivka, Volfine and Basivka of the Sumy region, as well as Veterinarne, Graniv, Baranivka, Strelecha, Krasne, Ternova, Hlyboke, Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Zemlianki, Rublene, Chugunivka, Krasne Pershe, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Kupyansk and Ridkodub in Kharkiv
• On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy shelled more than 20 settlements with tanks, mortars and artillery, including Krokhmalne, Berestov and Tabaivka of the Kharkiv region; Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Nevske, Novoehorivka, Makiivka, Chervonpopivka, Pischane, Dibrova, Spirne, Rozdolivka, Serebryansk Forestry and Bilogorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Fedorivka and Stepovka in Donetsk
• In the direction of Bakhmut, more than 25 settlements were shelled by mortars and artillery, including Bilogorivka, Vesele, Paraskoviivka, Vasyukivka, Zaliznyanske, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Zalizne, New York of the Donetsk
• On the Avdiyiv and Shakhtarsky directions, 30 settlements came under tank, mortar and artillery attacks, in particular, Kamianka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Georgiivka, Pobyeda, Zolota Niva, Prechistivka, Vugledar, Mykilske and Time in Donetsk
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, more than 20 settlements were affected by fire. Among them are Olhivske, Malynivka, Staroukrainka, Chervone, Gulyaipilske, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Orihiv, Novoandriivka and Stepove of the Zaporizhzhia
• In the Kherson direction, the suburbs and the city of Kherson, as well as the districts of more than 30 settlements, including Zolota Balka, Havrylivka, Beryslav, Vesele, Ingulets, Lviv, Tyaginka, Antonivka, Zymivnyk, Bilozerka, Dniprovske, and Veletenske of the Kherson region, were affected by enemy artillery fire.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Repair on the power grid continues 24/7 in Kharkiv. (Kommentary Kharkiv)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction on February 14. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian ground attacks near Hrianykivka, 16km northwest of Kupyansk.
• Mobilized Russian forces are arriving in Luhansk Oblast to replenish losses to frontline units and that Russian forces are constantly probing Ukrainian defenses along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Ukrainian officials are expecting large-scale Russian offensive attacks in the coming days as Russian forces try to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objective of seizing all of Luhansk Oblast in March.
• Russian forces continued offensive actions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 14. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian ground attacks near Kreminna, Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna), Shypylivka (8km southeast of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). Russian forces have made incremental advances in the area northwest of Kreminna.
• Russian forces carried out a record number of artillery strikes in the Lyman direction west of Kreminna in the last week, likely as Russian forces conduct artillery preparation of the battlefield to support offensive operations.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a HIMARS strike against a Russian concentration area in Kadiivka (40km west of Luhansk City) on February 13.

DONETSK

Above:  Ukrainian soldiers head to their positions near Bakhmut. (Los Angeles Times)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on February 14. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself, north of Bakhmut near Fedorivka (15km northeast), and north of Bakhmut near Paraskoviivka (5km north).
• Russian and Ukrainian troops made contact 17 times within Bakhmut on February 13 and denied Wagner claims that Wagner troops captured Krasna Hora (4km north of Bakhmut).
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on February 14. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Vodyane and on the southwestern outskirts near Marinka and Pobieda.
• DNR Head Denis Pushilin claimed that there is fierce fighting ongoing southeast of Vuhledar, and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are fighting on the southeastern outskirts of Vuhledar near the Mykilske dacha area, indicating that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian forces from outside the immediate vicinity of Vuhledar.[38] Aerial footage posted on February 13 shows that artillery fire has entirely leveled the dacha area southeast of Vuhledar.

ZAPORIZHZHYA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: Workers clear rubble in a single-family home neighborhood in Zaporizhzhya.  (Main Intelligence Directorate)

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed offensive operations in southern Ukraine on February 14. Russian forces continued routine shelling along the southern axis.
• Ukraine is systematically destroying enemy checkpoints, observation posts, and ammunition warehouses on islands on the Dnipro River delta. Ukrainian forces are destroying these points.
• Russian forces deployed 200 members of the Rosgvardia to Kherson Oblast to restore order among demoralized, dissatisfied Russian units and increase pressure on the local population.
• A comparison of satellite imagery from January 21 and February 13 shows that Russian forces have constructed new trenches and barriers along the T2202 highway between Chaplynka, Kherson, and Armyansk, Crimea.
• Tin Krasna Zorka, Simferopol, Crimea, the enemy is burning the dead. Near the local crematorium there is a constant line of military vehicles bringing dead Russian servicemen and mercenaries for around the clock cremation.