Victory Chronicles
-DAY 351

Above: During President Zelensky’s visit to the UK, the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that the delivery of Challenger-2 main battle tanks will be pushed up to March. The PM declared, “We must arm Ukraine in the short term, but we must bolster Ukraine for the long term. Your country cannot be that vulnerable to an attack ever again.” (New Voice of Ukraine)

Above:  The British PM also offered to begin training Ukrainian pilots on NATO-standard aircraft.  “The British offer to train Ukrainian pilots on modern Nato fighter jets is a carefully couched hint to the rest of Nato that at some point it may have to provide modern jets to help Ukraine defend its airspace from the Russian air force,” according to The Guardian. 

• The Ukrainian General Staff reports that the enemy is trying to take full control of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive operations on the Kup’yansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka axes in the Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Opytne, Maryinka and Vugledar areas. Actively uses operational-tactical and army aviation to strike the positions of our troops.
• In actions that will certainly exacerbate an already stifling level of state-sponsored corruption, the Russian government appears to be removing legal and oversight restrictions for businesses that support military manufacturing and introducing new flows of government money to business owners who no longer have to publicly report income.
• Russian human rights activists reported that Russian law enforcement officials are threatening prisoners in Samara and Rostov oblasts, Krasnodar Krai, and the North Caucasus with new criminal cases if they refuse to volunteer with the Wagner Group in Ukraine.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above:  The enemy loses not only lives and equipment, but the hearts and minds of Ukrainians and the free world.  This week, Kyiv removed monuments to a Russian pilot and a Russian WWII military commander who was eliminated by Ukrainian partisans in 1944.  (New York Times)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 135,010 (+910)
• Tanks, 3,255 (+2)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,468 (+10)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,244/463 (+8/2)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 232 (+4)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 295/285 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,967 (+6)
• Cruise missiles, 796 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,121 (+9)
• Special equipment, 211 (0)

Above:  Residents of an apartment building in Avdiivka, Donetsk, live in a basement heated by firewood. (New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine! Day 351 of the full-scale russian military aggression has begun.

• Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Stelmakhivka and Belogorivka of the Luhansk Oblast; Viyimka, Fedorivka, Bakhmut, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Novokalynove, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Vesele, Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka, Mar`yinka, Bogoyavlenka and Prechystivka in the Donetsk Oblast and Novoandriivka in Zaporizhzhia.
• During the day, the russian occupiers launched 3 rockets and 45 airstrikes, as a result of which 3 civilians were killed and three others are in serious condition. In addition, the enemy carried out 67 attacks from MLRS, in particular, on civilian infrastructure in the Kherson
• The threat of further russian air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high.
• Areas of more than 40 settlements were shelled, in particular, Gai of the Chernihiv Oblast; Zarutske, Vovkivka, Atynske, Stukalyvka, Sokhany, Pavlivka, Yunakivka, Sadky and Myropyllya in Sumy Oblasts, Chervona Zorya, Krasne, Lyptsi, Starytsya, Vovchansk, Varvarivka, Verkhnya Pysarivka, Ambarne, Figolivka, Krasne Pershe, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna and Zapadne in Kharkiv There are deaths and injuries among the civilian population, and a large number of civilian residential buildings have been damaged.
• Kup’yansk and Lyman axes: areas of more than 25 settlements were affected by the enemy fire. Among them are Kup’yansk, Synkivka, Kucherivka, Pischane, Kurylivka, Kislivka, Tabaivka and Berestovka in the Kharkiv Oblast and Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Chervonpopivka, Kreminna, Kuzmyne, Dibrova and Bilogorivka in the Luhansk The enemy carried out airstrikes near Kotlyarivka and Tabaivka in the Kharkiv Oblast and Serebryansk forestry in Luhansk.
• Bakhmut axis: in particular, Spirne, Berestov, Bilogorivka, Rozdolivka, Vasyukivka, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Bogdanivka, Ivanivske, Mykolayivka, Klishchiivka, Ozaryanivka, Aleksandro-Shultine and Vesele in Donetsk Oblast were under fire. In total, there are more than 30 settlements. The occupiers also carried out airstrikes near Spirne.
• Avdiivka and Novopavlivka axes: more than 20 settlements were under enemy fire, in particular, Petrivka, Kamianka, Avdiivka, Severne, Tonenke, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Bogoyavlenka, Prechistivka, and Vugledar of the Donetsk Airstrikes were carried out near Avdiyivka, Vesely, Krasnohorivka and Vuhledar.
• Zaporizhzhia axis: Vremivka and Novopil of Donetsk Oblast and Olhivske, Malynivka, Chervone, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Novoandriivka, Shcherbaki, Stepove and Kamianske in Zaporizhzhia were damaged by fire.
• Kherson axis: the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Havrylivka, Chervonyi Mayak, Zmiivka, Shlyakhove, Beryslav, Odradokamyanka, L`vove, Tyaginka, Ponyativka, Antonivka, Komyshany, Yantarne, Berehove, Veletenske and Kherson were affected by enemy fire.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above:  Defenders from the Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade ride an Australian armored personnel carrier near the Svatove-Kreminna line. (NOEL Reports)

• Russian forces have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk Oblast has increased markedly over the past week. Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, particularly northwest of Svatove near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna.
• Russian troops attacked near Shepilove (7km south of Kreminna) and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna) and Russian troops attacked near Shepilove (7km south of Kreminna) and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).
• Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated on February 8 that there has been a ”maximum escalation” in the Kreminna direction and that Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses in this area.

Above: Enemy forces have made gains around Bakhmut.  Analysts compare the situation to the battle for Lysychansk wherein Ukrainian forces successfully withdrew at the last minute after weeks of inflicting devastating enemy losses. (War Monitor)

A timelapse showing the change to control around the frontline city of Bakhmut over the past 4 weeks.

12 Jan -> 19 Jan -> 26 Jan -> 02 Feb -> 09 Feb pic.twitter.com/HuKIkb3xQP

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) February 9, 2023

• Russian forces conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut and continued making tactical advances on February 8. Geolocated footage posted between February 4 and 8 confirms that Russian forces have made marginal advances north of Bakhmut near Krasna Hora and Zaliznyanske (10km north of Bakhmut), in the Stupky area of northern Bakhmut, and southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske.
• Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamyanske (30km northeast), Fedorivka (15km northeast), Spirne (27km northeast), and Vymika (20km northeast); north of Bakhmut near Paraskoviivka (5km north) and Krasna Hora (4km north); northwest of Bakhmut near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (12km northwest) and Dubovo-Vasylivka (7km northwest); and west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km west) and Chasiv Yar (10km west).
• The report of a Russian attack on Chasiv Yar indicates that Russian forces have likely advanced closer to the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway southwest of Bakhmut. Russian forces are visually confirmed to be within 2.5 km of the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on February 8. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Avdiivka, north of Avdiivka near Kamianka, and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City near Vodyane, Pervomaiske, and Krasnohorivka.
• Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in western Donetsk Oblast on February 8. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bohoyavlenka (25km southwest of Donetsk City).
• A video from mobilized personnel of an enemy howitzer battalion from Saratov, Russia, appeared on February 8 in which they stated that they were sent to join DNR units. This is likely due to the inability of the DNR to replenish its forces locally and now depends on mobilized Russian reinforcements. Some analysts believe this is the early stages of enemy MoD plans to subordinate the military in the breakaway regions.

Above:  The Berdyansk City Council reported that the illegal narcotics trafficking business is flourishing in the port city on the Sea of Azov, with traffickers posting help wanted ads on social media. The demand for narcotics is said to be especially high among occupation troops . (Photo: Britannica)

• Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued small scale skirmishes and reconnaissance activity in the Dnipro River delta and on the Kinburn Spit on February 8. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces are using small boats to try to maintain a presence on islands in the Dnipro River delta south of Kherson City and that Ukrainian forces have deployed long-range artillery to strike several Russian outposts on the islands.
• Russian forces are likely establishing long defensive lines along critical grounds lines of communication in Zaporizhia Oblast in preparation to defend against possible future Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Zaporizhia frontline.
• In the village of Kohane, Vasylivsky District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the russian occupying forces are engaged in mass looting.
• Russian occupation authorities have approved design and research works on a new highway that will run from Crimea, Ukraine, along the Azov Sea to Rostov-on-Don, Russia.