Victory Chronicles
-DAY 342

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY

Above:  Crimean Tatars, residents of Crimea long before russian empire occupation in the late 18th century, have been systematically repressed under every russian-led regime. This week, occupation authorities accelerated searches and arrests among Tatar activists.  “Occupation forces in Crimea are conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign against Crimean Tatars under the guise of fighting terrorism” – ISW. (Photo: Ukrinform)

• Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive. NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg stated on January 30 that Russia may mobilize upwards of 200,000 personnel and is continuing to acquire weapons and ammunition through increased domestic production and partnerships with authoritarian states such as Iran and North Korea.
• The Russian Duma Committee on Defense is reviewing over 20 laws on mobilization deferrals, including those for families with disabled children or more than three children. Universities in St. Petersburg, Omsk, and Vladimir oblasts demanded that students provide military registration data as part of preparations for a second wave of mobilization in February 2023.
• Russian defense ministery will take over the provisioning of Russian volunteer units with weapons, equipment, clothing, medical care, and food, replacing Russian federal regions, which bore the financial burden of provisioning these units during the heavy recruitment period in the late summer and fall.
• Iran and Russia established direct financial communication channels between Iranian banks and more than 800 Russian banks on January 29 as a means to circumvent Western sanctions on both countries.  The system is similar in operations to the SWIFT system that Russia was banned from using last spring.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Destroyed enemy tank in the forest near Kharkiv. (New York Times)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 127,500 (+850)
• Tanks, 3,201 (0)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,378 (+9)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,197/454 (+1/1)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 221 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 293/284 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,951 (+4)
• Cruise missiles, 796 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 5,048 (+7)
• Special equipment, 200 (+1)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: The Kremenchuk Oil Refinery in Kremenchuk, Poltava, was Ukraine’s largest petroleum products producer until it was destroyed in April 2022.  (Poltava Wave)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and forty-second day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The enemy does not stop destroying the critical infrastructure of our country, launches rocket attacks, and carries out artillery attacks on civilian objects and homes of the civilian population.
• So, during the past day, the enemy launched 3 air strikes and 4 missile strikes. He carried out more than 60 attacks from rocket salvo systems, in particular, on residential buildings in the cities of Kherson and Ochakiv. There are casualties among civilians.
• The threat of air and missile strikes throughout the territory of Ukraine remains high.
• Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine have repelled attacks by invaders in the areas of Novoselivske, Bilogorivka, Luhansk region and Yampolivka, Spirne, Krasna Gora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Ivanivske, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske and Vugledar in Donetsk
• Shelling by the troops of the Russian Federation of settlements near the state border continues, causing casualties among the civilian population and destruction of private property. The occupiers shelled the areas of Hrinivka, Huta-Studenetska and Krasny Khutir settlements of Chernihiv region; Sopych, Volfine, Shpyl, Basivka, Zapsilya, Mezenivka, Velyka Pisarivka in the Sumy region and Veterinarne, Hlyboke, Strelecha, Borisivka, Neskuchne, Staritsa, Ohirtseve, Verkhnya Pisarivka, Vovchansk, Budarky, Novomlynsk and Dvorichna in the Kharkiv
• On the Kupyansk direction, Sinkivka, Kupyansk, Ivanivka, Kislivka and Kotlyarivka in the Kharkiv region and Novoselivske and Andriivka in the Luhansk region were affected by enemy fire.
• On the Lymanskyi direction, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Chervopopivka, Kreminna in Luhansk region and Yampolivka, Dibrova, Yampil and Spirne in Donetsk region were shelled.
• In the direction of Bakhmut, Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Bilogorivka, Vesele, Krasna Gora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Klishchiivka, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba, Ivanopil’a and New York of the Donetsk region were affected by fire.
• Berdychi, Tonenka, Severne, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, and Pobeda of the Donetsk region came under enemy tank, mortar, and artillery fire in the Avdiiv
• On Novopavlivskyi, Vodyane, Bogoyavlenka, Novoukrayinka, Vugledar, Mykilski Dachi and Neskuchne of the Donetsk region were shelled.
• In the Zaporizhzhia region, Vremivka and Novopil in Donnechyna, as well as Olhivske, Biloghirya, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Orihiv, Kamianske and Novoselivka in the Zaporizhia region were affected. In total, there are more than 20 settlements.
• In the Kherson direction, areas of the settlements of Odradokamyanka, Ivanivka, Tokarivka, Antonivka, Pervomaiske, Veletenske and Kherson came under fire from multiple rocket systems, barrel artillery and mortars.

Believe in the Armed Forces! We are approaching victory together! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: In northern Luhansk Oblast, Starobilsk was most recently occupied by Russians in March 2022.  It’s now a major enemy supply and transportation hub. Starobilsk was a Ukrainian Kozak outpost until it was dismantled and occupied in the late 18th century by the anti-Ukrainian Russian empire.  The soviets stripped its cathedral/ monastery complex of all assets, later using it as a POW camp for Polish prisoners during WWII. (Photo: Open Democracy)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued ground attacks to regain lost positions west of Kreminna on January 29 and 30. Ukrainian forces repelled assaults on Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna) and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast, and Yampolivka (16km west of Kreminna) in Donetsk
• Geolocated combat footage posted on January 30 shows Ukrainian forces shelling unspecified Russian targets west of Dibrova on an unspecified date, indicating that Ukrainian forces have made marginal advances southwest of Kreminna.
• Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian concentration areas in the rear of Luhansk Geolocated footage posted on January 29 shows the aftermath of a purported Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a hospital in Novoaidar (55km east of Kreminna along the H21 Starobilsk-Luhansk City highway) in Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Kadiivka  (48km west of Luhansk City) with HIMARS on the night of January 29 to January 30.
• Russian forces are reprovisioning their forces in Luhansk Oblast with new weapons.
• Russian forces and occupation authorities are continuing to evict and deport Ukrainians from their homes in occupied territories under the guise of “evacuation.” Russian occupation authorities are housing Russian and Wagner forces in homes after forcibly evicting residents from settlements along the frontlines in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

DONETSK

Above: National Guard defender in Bakhmut. (Novy Narnia)

Video: Civilian life in Bakhmut today, no translation necessary. 

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued making marginal advances during ground attacks around Bakhmut on January 29 and 30. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamyanske (30km northeast), Rozdolivka (13km northeast), Sil (10km northeast), Blahodatne (7km north), Paraskoviivka (5km north), and Vasyukivka (15km north); and southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km southwest), Klishchiivka (7km southwest), Kurdiumivka (13km southwest), and Ozerianivka (15km southwest).
• Wagner Group took control of Blahodatne—a claim later confirmed by geolocated imagery published on January 29 showing Wagner Group fighters along the T1302 Bakhmut-Siversk highway south of Blahodatne.
• Russian forces are massing for an offensive against There are 3,000-5,000 Russian military personnel in Mariupol Raion who could participate in an offensive.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on January 29 and 30. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Vodyane (on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City) and Marinka and Novomykhailivka (on the southwestern outskirts) on January 29.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on January 29 and 30. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Pobieda (8km southwest of Donetsk City along the T0524 Donetsk City-Vuhledar highway) and Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City) on January 29.
• Russian forces deployed over 4,000 mobilized personnel to Bylosarayska Kosa and other villages north of Mariupol.

ZAPORIZHZHYA-KHERSON-CRIMEA

Above: Earlier this week, police and war crimes investigators watched the exhumation of a woman shot in the back by invaders for “her pro-Ukrainian position.” (Kherson Oblast Prosecutor )

Maps via ISW

• Russian forces are not conducting offensive operations in the Zaporizhia direction and have not concentrated enough manpower and equipment for a full-scale offensive. Russian forces continue to conduct failed attacks in groups of 10 personnel in the area to improve their tactical positions.
• Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian logistics lines in rear areas of Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike against a rail bridge in Svitlodolynske on the T0401 Melitopol-Tokmak highway on January 29.
• Russian forces used incendiary munitions to strike Beryslav, Kherson Oblast on January 29, and Orikhiv, Zaporizhia Oblast on January 30