Victory Chronicles
-DAY 334

Above: Canada will supply Ukraine with 200 Senator armored personnel carriers, which will, hopefully, help Ukraine go on the counteroffensive against the invader. (Reuters)

Above: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told French broadcaster LCI on Sunday that Germany would not block the export of Leopard tanks from third countries to Ukraine. “The question hasn’t been asked at the moment, but if we were asked, we wouldn’t stand in the way,” Ms Baerbock said in response to a  question of what would happen if Poland delivered Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

Poland will presumably move ahead on its offer to transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine. “With more than a thousand of the latest American and South Korean tanks scheduled to arrive in Poland over the next decade, the roughly 250 Leopard 2s in the Polish army’s inventory soon should be in excess of need. Poland could start giving them away right now and suffer, at worst, a fleeting capability gap.” Finland, Spain, Denmark and The Netherlands have also expressed interest in donating surplus Leopards to Ukraine. 

Above: Why Leopard tanks are extremely important to Ukraine. The chart shows main battle tanks in service in Europe from a 2020 report.  “If we want to continuously supply tanks to Ukraine there is only one option… and it’s colored blue”. (Thomas C. Theiner)

Above: A newly-published analysis by the Silverado Policy Accelerator outlines how moscow is struggling to overcome sanctions on technology imports, increasingly relying on former soviet states and China to partially fill in gaps.  

Above: This chart from the Silverado analysis shows how Armenians imported cellular phones for immediate export to russia early in the war. 

Above: Kremlin hasn’t been able to produce quality passenger automobiles and relies heavily on imported components.  This chart shows a year-on-year decline in domestic car sales of almost 60%. (Marklines)

• The Institute for the Study of War on Sunday discussed in detail the machinations for military influence taking place in Moscow.  Putin apparently allowed the Wagner Group and “butcher of Syria” surovikin to prove themselves over this last few months while the russian ministry of defense scrambled to make a plan to put it’s house in order including the mobilization drive this autumn. Wager has struggled for months to take Bakhmut at an enormous cost in lives and materiel, while surovikin’s civilian terror campaign. “Both efforts failed, as Prigozhin’s attempts to seize Bakhmut culminated and Surovikin’s air campaign accomplished little more than inflicting suffering on Ukrainian civilians while expending most of Russia’s remaining stocks of precision missiles.”
• Putin is now re-centralizing control of the war and pushing highly ambitious reforms on the fly. Moscow is planning a second mobilization wave and talking about improving the professionalism of conventional forces.
• A mainstream Russian news agency reported on January 21 that Omsk Oblast is launching a six-month training program for defense manufacturing enterprises to expedite traditional two-year technical training.  Labor shortages, lack of planning, and endemic corruption will likely continue to hobble efforts to reinvigorate Russia’s defense industry.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: New Voice of Ukraine

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 121,480 (+720)
• Tanks, 3,150 (+5)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,276 (+8
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,146/447 (+2/2)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 220 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 287/277 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,894 (+2)
• Cruise missiles, 749 (0)
• Warships/boats, 18 (+1)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,936 (+4)
• Special equipment, 193 (0)

Above: Toretsk is a town near Donetsk city that has been under russian bombardment for eight years. During soviet occupation, the town was renamed in honor of Felix Dzezhensky, the great russian sadist-hero who built russo-soviet terror operations in the years following the Bolshevik revolution. (Spiegel)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and thirty-fourth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The threat of Russian strikes using land-based, sea-based and air-based missiles and “kamikaze drones” remains throughout Ukraine.
• During the day, the enemy launched 4 missile and 5 air strikes. Also, he carried out more than 40 attacks from rocket salvo systems.
• Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Stelmakhivka and Novoselivske in the Luhansk region and Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Bilogorivka, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Stupochki, Novobakhmutivka, Pervomaiske and Maryinka in the Donetsk
• Areas of Sopych, Kharkivka and Popivka settlements in Sumy region and Veterinarne, Strelecha, Zelene, Pylna, Vovchansk, Novomlynsk, Staritsa and Dvorichna in Kharkiv region were hit by mortar and artillery fire.
• In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy shelled the areas of Petropavlivka, Tabaivka, Synkivka, Krokhmalne, and Kupyansk settlements of the Kharkiv region, as well as Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka – Luhansk
• On the Lymanskyi direction, Makiyivka, Ploshanka, Chervonopivka, Serebryansk forestry and Kuzmyne in the Luhansk region were hit by fire.
• Areas of 21 settlements were affected by fire in the Bakhmut Among them are Verkhnyokamianske, Krasnopolivka, Zalizne, Bilogorivka, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Kurdyumivka and Mayorsk of the Donetsk region.
• In the Avdiivsk direction, Avdiivka, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, and Maryinka came under enemy fire.
• In the direction of Novopavlivsk, the enemy fired artillery and mortars in the Bogoyavlenka and Mykilsky areas of the Donetsk
• In the Zaporizhzhia region, more than 20 settlements were affected by artillery fire, in particular, Vilne Pole, Vremivka and Novopil in Donetsk and Gulyaipole, Pavlivka, Novodanilivka, Stepove, Orihiv, Shcherbaki and Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhzhia
• In the Kherson direction, in particular, the areas of Dudchany, Ingulets, Havrylivka, Burgunka, Monastyrske, Antonivka, and Kherson settlements were shelled by rocket-propelled grenades.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: Kharkiv residents gathered to observe Unity Day on Sunday. “Everything for victory” reads the banner, while a sign on a spent rocket reads, “Shame on fascist russia”.  (Suspilne)

• Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on January 22.
• Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai reported heavy fighting near Kreminna and that Russian forces are pulling reserves to the area to compensate for continued losses.
• Russian forces are mobilizing emergency service employees in Luhansk Oblast to replace military casualties.
• Russian forces placed over 300 wounded soldiers in the Starobilsk City Hospital in Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces continue to deprioritize the treatment of civilians while exacerbating medical shortages by replacing Ukrainian doctors.

Above:  Ukrainian servicemen stand on their tanks near the frontline of Bakhmut, Donetsk. (The Guardian)

• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and likely continued making incremental gains on January 21. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Bilohorivka (20km northeast), Rozdolivka (17km northeast), Yasyukivka (15km north), Krasna Hora (5km north), and Yahidne (4km north); and west of Bakhmut near Predtechyne (18km southwest).
• The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine. While the costs associated with Ukraine’s continued defense of Bakhmut are significant and likely include opportunity costs related to potential Ukrainian counter-offensive operations elsewhere, Ukraine would also have paid a significant price for allowing Russian troops to take Bakhmut easily. Russian forces have been funneling manpower and equipment into the area since May 2022 and have yet to achieve any operationally significant advances that seriously threaten the Ukrainian defense of the area.
• The West has been slow-rolling or withholding weapons systems and supplies essential for large-scale counteroffensive operations, thus preventing Ukraine from taking advantage of the situation in the Bakhmut theater.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks on the western outskirts of Donetsk City on January 21. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Vodiane (on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City) and Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City).

Video: Ukrainian defender gives detailed situational analysis around Bakhmut. 

In the war-torn city of Bakhmut, Russian forces continue to employ brutal tactics, reminiscent of those used by Soviet General Zhukov during WWII, sacrificing countless lives for small gains. Ukrainian forces, however, remain resilient & are pushing back against the enemy hordes. pic.twitter.com/tg0FyOh4GB

— Ukraine Reporter (@StateOfUkraine) January 17, 2023

Above: “Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, our entire city, all our people, businesses, volunteers, ordinary Zaporozhians, rallied to help the army and the displaced, to support each other, for the sake of Victory.” – Zaporizhzhya city council secretary on the celebration of Unity Day on Sunday. (Zaporizhzhya City Council)

• Various Russian sources reported new offensives in Zaporizhzhya Oblast over the weekend, however, reports on the ground show no evidence of battlefield success on the part of the invaders.  ISW assessed that the claims are likely the local occupation authority’s attempt to promote its competency through a so-called “Telegram offensive”.
• Russian forces continued routine fire against areas in west (right) bank Kherson Oblast and Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts on January 21. Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian forces in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, including Oleshky, Hola Prystan, Kozachi Laheri, Nova Zburivka, Tavriisk, and Kakhovka.
• Russian occupation authorities are unable to start or operate any of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant’s reactors because Ukrainian staff refuse to cooperate with occupation authorities. Russian forces continue to militarize the ZNPP by erecting fortifications and other military structures on ZNPP grounds.
• Russian majority state-owned bank Sberbank placed ATMs in Sevastopol, Simferopol, Yalta, and Opolzneve, Crimea, on January 21.