Victory Chronicles
-DAY 329

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY: FUTURE RUSSIAN SOCIETY/ECONOMY WILL BE BASED ON MILITARY AGGRESSION

Above: Ukrainian Commissioner for Children’s Rights Daria Gerasimchuk said during the opening of the Ukraine is You project at the World Economic Forum in Davos, “We managed to identify and verify the data of almost 14 thousand children who were abducted and deported by the Russian army, and, unfortunately, we can say that we managed to return only 125 of them back home.” (Photo: Ukraine is You)

Above: Ukrainian Railways is one of the main heroes of Ukrainian resilience.  Yesterday, Ukrzaliznytsya launched the first train in 17 years connecting Ukraine with Romania. The new diesel engine was made in Ukraine during the war.
Below: The new Ukraine-Romania rail line originates in Rakhiv, Zakarpattya, and terminates in Valea Viseului, Romania, with further connections to Europe by rail and air. (Alexander Kamyshin)

Video: Rakhiv, Zakarpattya, celebrated the inaugural trip including this kids singing group wearing traditional Hutsul costumes

Our inaugural trip today started in #Rakhiv with these #carols, performed by local kids band. Lovely. pic.twitter.com/3z8eEj0J40

— Alexander Kamyshin (@AKamyshin) January 17, 2023

• Putin will deliver a speech in St. Petersburg on January 18 commemorating the 80th anniversary of Soviet forces breaking the Nazi siege of Leningrad and may use the opportunity to announce a second mobilization and/or a legal status change of the special military operation to war.
• The Russian military announced plans to develop capacity to wage long-term war in Ukraine and abroad including the reestablishment of  the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, form a new army corps in Karelia (on the Finnish border), form new self-sufficient force groupings in occupied Ukraine, and form 12 new maneuver divisions.
• Russia’s ability to generate large-scale change in its military depends in part on Putin’s willingness to redirect large portions of the federal budget to the military, putting the country in war mode for years to come.
• Russian military leadership will struggle to institute meaningful and sustainable reforms as long as they continue to place the onus for change on an individual basis such as command for frontline troops to shave and not use telephones and ignore the problems of endemic corruption throughout Russian society..
• Unknown actors legally registered a joint-stock company called “PMC Wagner Center” on December 27, 2022—the first time that any Wagner Group-affiliated legal entity has appeared in Russia. BBC’s Russia service explained that this means that the PMC Wagner Center now has the ability to—among other things—receive government orders and grants without disclosing its beneficiaries which are highly likely to include Wagner personnel.
• Occupation authorities replaced all Ukrainian mobile communication services with Russian operators in occupied territories.
• Belarus continues to support Russian armed aggression with joint aviation exercises. Mobilized Russian forces in Belarus are undergoing training and redeploying to active frontlines in occupied Ukraine, making it very unlikely to attack Ukraine from Belarus in the next two-to-three weeks.
• Due to the small number of collaborators, the invaders are forced to import officials from the Russia to perform administrative functions of the occupation regime. In addition, there is a shortage of workers in various industries, because local residents do not want to cooperate with the occupiers.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: UAF General Staff 

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 117,770 (+820)
• Tanks, 3,130 (+9)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,225 (+10)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,108/442 (+4/1)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 220 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 286/276 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,876 (+4)
• Cruise missiles, 749 (0)
• Warships/boats, 17 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,889 (+12)
• Special equipment, 190 (0)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above:  Yesterday, russia world shelled a maternity hospital in Kherson.  (ResistUA)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and twenty-ninth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• The enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 3 of which hit civilian objects in the cities of Kupyansk and Kramatorsk, as well as 14 airstrikes and 95 attacks from multiple rocket launchers.
• The threat of air and missile strikes by the Russian Federation on civilian objects remains high throughout Ukraine.
• During the past day, the enemy continued to fire artillery and mortar fire along the entire contact line. Areas of settlements of Mykolaivka, Chernihiv region were shelled; Rivne, Atynske, Iskryskivshchyna and Novodmytrivka in the Sumy region and Veterinarne, Krasne, Lukyantsi, Neskuchne, Staritsa, Ogirtseve, Gatyshche, Vovchansk, Rybalkine, Bily Kolodyaz, Nesterne, Zemlianki, Novomlynsk, Bologhivka, Kamianka and Dvorichna in the Kharkiv
• In the Kupyansky direction, the areas of Kislivka, Berestovo, Kotlyarivka, Vyshnevo, Ivanivka of the Kharkiv region, as well as Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka and Andriivka in the Luhansk region, were affected by the fire.
• In the Lymansky direction, the enemy fired from all available ground firepower at the areas of the settlements of Makiivka, Ploshanka, Nevske, Chervopopivka, Kreminna, Dibrova of the Luhansk region, and Terna and Yampolivka in the Donetsk
• On the Bakhmut direction, the villages of Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, Bilogorivka, Vesele, Soledar, Krasna Gora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba, Zalizne and New York of the Donetsk region were hit by enemy artillery fire.
• On the Avdiivskyi direction, Avdiivka, Vodiane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Georgiivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk region came under enemy fire.
• In the direction of Novopavlivsk, the enemy fired artillery and mortars at Vugledar, Mykilske Dachy and Prechistivka in the Donetsk
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, more than 10 settlements were affected by artillery fire, in particular, Vremivka and Novopil in Donnechyna and Temyrivka, Shcherbaki, Stepove, Kamianske and Plavna in Zaporizhzhia.
• In the Kherson direction, the occupiers continue to terrorize the civilian population. Antonivka and Kherson, in particular, suffered mortar and artillery shelling, and civilians were injured.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Supply of artillery to the front lines is a never-ending task. (National Review)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions near Kreminna on January 17. Geolocated footage published on January 17 shows Russian forces holding positions west of Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna).  Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[24]
• Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort in Luhansk Oblast according to Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai who stated that Russian forces continue to transfer reinforcements to the Kreminna-Svatove line.  Mr Haidai also said that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups disguised in Ukrainian uniforms tried to break through Ukrainian defenses in an unspecified area of Luhansk Oblast.

DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above:  Search and rescue operations continue in Dnipro city. (National Review)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar on January 17. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Soledar itself and within 24km north of Soledar near Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, Krasnopolivka, Sil, and Bilohorivka.
• Geolocated footage published on January 16 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal advances north of Bilohorivka (11km northeast of Soledar).Geo located footage published on January 17 shows Wagner Group elements south of Rozdolivka (7km north of Soledar) and north of Soledar
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on January 17. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut itself and Pivnichne (22km southwest of Bakhmut).
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on January 17.Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Kamianka (5km northeast of Avdiivka) and within 32km southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Nevelske, Marinka, and Pobieda.
• Russian forces are deploying large numbers of personnel to the DNR in an effort to strengthen counterintelligence and are housing them in previously-seized private residences. DNR officials are treating Chechen servicemen with greater suspicion as the Russian military has shown heightened distrust of Chechen forces.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: Ukrainian artillerists who defended Kyiv now defend Zaporizhzhya territory. (RAND)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued routine fire against areas in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts on January 17 and intensified the shelling of residential and civilian infrastructure facilities in Zaporizhzhya
• Russian forces in Kherson Oblast continue to struggle with their logistics efforts in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast due to Ukrainian strikes. Satellite imagery from January 3 and 9 suggests that Russian forces decreased their usage of a rail station with visible damage from strikes in Myrne, Kherson Oblast, and heavily use a rail station further to the rear in Sokolohirne, Kherson Oblast on the Kherson-Zaporizhia Oblast border.
• The International Atomic Energy Agency continued efforts to establish a safety and security zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, stating on January 17 that the backup external powerline from the ZNPP disconnected briefly for maintenance on January 16 after suffering repeated power cuts in recent weeks. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that the nuclear safety and security situation is precarious and called for a protection zone around the plant.
• Russian forces continued shelling civilian infrastructure in occupied-Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, in an effort to intimidate residents to evacuate and repurpose private homes to house Russian servicemen.
• Russian occupation authorities in Zavodivka, Hornostaivka, and Kairy, Kherson Oblast, replaced all Ukrainian television channels with Russian broadcasting.

Video: Russian forces shelling Kherson City with incendiary munitions on January 17, the second observed instance of Russian forces using incendiary munitions against Kherson City in the past 10 days

Today, once again, Kherson was shelled by Russian incendiary ammunition. This was followed by a counter-battery fight and, allegedly, the launchers from which Kherson was attacked with incendiary ammunition were destroyed in the area of Nechaevehttps://t.co/qD45ZZDBR1 pic.twitter.com/FMtbojIph1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 17, 2023