Victory Chronicles
-DAY 328

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY: NATO SAYS THE WAR IS AT A DECISIVE STAGE, HEAVY WEAPONS NEEDED NOW

Above: A Ukrainian defender stands near a destroyed bridge to Belarus, even as Lukashenka approves heightened cooperation with the Kremlin’s plans for military conquest. For now, Belarus has lost its connection with the democratic world.  (NBC News)

Above: UK is set to be the first ally to send heavy battle tanks to Ukraine, hopefully opening the gates for more allies to supply the equipment needed for Ukraine to go on the offensive.  The UK prime minister wisely pointed out that a prolonged war serves only russian interests. (Aljazeera)

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO countries understand that the Russo-Ukrainian War is in a “decisive phase” and must “provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to win.” Mr Stoltenberg’s comments likely increase the pressure on the German government to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
• Russia likely used Kh-22 Burya long-range supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles (NATO classification an AS-4 KITCHEN) launched from TU-22M3 BACKFIRE strike bombers to hit civilian infrastructure including the apartment building in Dnipro city that caused dozens of deaths.  This was the same weapon used in the attack on a shopping center in Kremenchuk in June.
• This was the ninth wave of missile attacks against civilians since October 11th. The UK Ministry of Defence observed that the KITCHEN is notoriously inaccurate when used against ground targets as its radar guidance system is poor at differentiating targets in urban areas,” and “that the enemy suffers from a high level of dysfunction in target identification and damage assessment.
• Russian forces strengthened their combat aviation group in Belarus under the guise of joint exercises and that the threat of Russian missile attacks and airstrikes from Belarusian airspace is increasing.
• Low discipline among Russian forces continues to endanger Russian soldiers and reduce their force effectiveness. Russian sources reported that a platoon commander stationed in Tonenkoye, Belgorod Oblast, accidentally detonated an RGD-5 grenade while holding it to show off his authority. The blast set off a second explosion at a nearby ammunition storage site, killed three Russian soldiers, and injured 16.
• Increasing official concern over continued refusals to fight by Russian soldiers has likely motivated Russian authorities to publicize their punishment capabilities. Kremlin newswire TASS reported on January 16 that Russia’s Central Military District is organizing disciplinary guardhouses for mobilized soldiers who are arrested for or suspected of a crime.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Ukrinform

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 116,950 (+870)
• Tanks, 3,121 (+3)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,215 (+11)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,104/441 (+5/3)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 220 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 286/276 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,872 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 749 (0)
• Warships/boats, 17 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,877 (+7)
• Special equipment, 190 (0)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above:  The enemy sends multi-million-dollar missiles to strike the Ukrainian power grid and families at home. Unfortunately for the enemy, it’s one of the warmest Ukrainian winters on record and every strike makes the Ukrainian people more determined to free their territory from the scourge.  (New York Times)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and twenty-eighth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Attacking populated areas, the enemy continues to destroy the infrastructure and homes of the civilian population, thereby violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of warfare.
• Over the past 24 hours, the enemy launched 2 rocket and 7 air strikes and launched more than 70 attacks from rocket salvo systems. In particular, in civil infrastructure, there are wounded and dead among the civilian population.
• There is a high danger of further Russian air and missile strikes on objects throughout the territory of Ukraine.
• Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces have repelled attacks by occupiers in the areas of more than 20 settlements, including: Belogorivka, Luhansk Region; Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Krasnopolivka, Sil, Soledar, Belogorivka, Bakhmut, Severnye, Kamianka, Vodyane, Nevelske, Maryinka, Pobieda of the Donetsk
• In the Siversk and Slobozhansk directions, more than fifteen settlements were subjected to tank, mortar and artillery shelling. Among them are Krasne, Neskuchne, Vesele, Gatishche, Vovchansk, Nesterne, Zemlianka, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna and Kamianka of the Kharkiv
• On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy shelled the areas of more than 15 settlements. In particular, these are Kislivka, Kotlyarivka, Vyshneve of the Kharkiv region, as well as Novoselivske, Andriivka, Makiivka, Kreminna, Dibrova, Terny, and Yampolivka of the Luhansk
• In the Bakhmut direction, Vyimka, Bilogorivka, Soledar, Krasna Gora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, New York and Vesele in Donetsk region were damaged by fire, and more than 15 settlements in total.
• On the Avdiivskyi direction, Avdiivka, Vodiane, Pervomaiske, Georgiivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk region came under enemy fire.
• In the direction of Novopavlivsk, Vugledar, Mykilski Dachi and Velika Novosilka of the Donetsk region were shelled.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, more than 15 settlements were affected by artillery fire, in particular, Vremivka, Novopil in Donnechyna and Poltavka, Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, Stepove, Kamianske and Plavni in Zaporizhzhia.
• In the Kherson direction, the occupiers do not stop terrorizing the civilian population. In particular, Sablukivka, Kachkarivka, Olhivka, Tyaginka, Ingulets and Kherson were hit by mortar and artillery fire.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Ukrainian forces are working to take back Kreminna, a gateway to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk to the south. (Slovo i dilo)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued to launch localized assaults to regain lost positions around Svatove and in the Kupyansk direction on January 15 and January 16.
• Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces lack sufficient military equipment and personnel in the Kupyansk direction, stating that one enemy tank battalion has only 30 personnel and 10 operating T-80BV tanks remaining on the frontline (out of a regular complement of roughly 30 tanks).
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on January 15 and January 16. The UK Ministry of Defense reported that fighting in the Kreminna sector continued over the weekend, noting that Ukrainian forces are continuing to advance on the eastern edge of Kreminna.
• Russian occupation authorities closed entry and exit points to occupied Rubizhne and Lysychansk from the surrounding occupied territory, only allowing civilians with local registration to pass through the checkpoints.

DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above:  Yesterday, the Ukrainian president’s UNITED24 campaign reported the delivery of 83 drones to the defenders of Bakhmut. (Ukrinform)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces made additional territorial gains north of Bakhmut on January 15-16.
• Wagner Group forces captured the Sil railway station northwest of Soledar on January 16.
• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks against Bakhmut itself, Klishchiivka, and Mayorsk on January 15 and 16. Geolocated combat footage published on January 15 indicates that Russian forces have made marginal advances in southeastern Bakhmut near the Bakhmut garbage dump.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on January 15-16. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks against Krasnohorivka, Novobakhmutivka, Pobyeda, Vodyane, and Marinka on January 15 and 16.
• Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) authorities seized land from Ukrainian farmers to give to Russias who fought in Ukraine

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: Mysterious conflagrations plague temporarily-occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhya. (Suspilne)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued to accumulate manpower in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on January 15 and 16. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan reported on January 15 that Russian forces increased their presence on the east bank of the Dnipro River and that Wagner Group elements arrived in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces continued efforts to develop new logistic routes between Russia and southern Ukraine, likely to disperse their lines of communication against Ukrainian strikes. Occupation authorities restored the Henichesk-Arabat Spit bridge, improving Russian transport logistics and are constructing a large road connecting rear areas in Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk oblasts to Crimea and Rostov-on-Don.
• Russian forces seized a civilian medical facility in Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast for military use. The only hospital in Mariupol restarted operations for the Russian military and is turning away civilians.

Video: Although the Ukrainian Armed Forces maintain operational silence in the south, Russian occupation authorities claimed that Russian air defenses shot down 10 Ukrainian UAVs over the Black Sea near Sevastopol on January 15 and 16.  The YouTube channel Reporting from Ukraine provided an interesting analysis of a possible clever Ukrainian intelligence gathering foray with drones.