Victory Chronicles
-DAY 327

KEY TAKEAWAYS TODAY: PEACE ASKS THE QUESTION: WHO WILL ACT FASTER, KREMLIN OR WESTERN ALLIES?

Above: Leopards in Slovakia, a NATO member since 2004. Germany is not very nimble when it comes to giving Ukraine big weapons.  Germany’s Leopard tank manufacturer says, “Even if the decision to send our Leopard tanks to Kyiv came tomorrow, the delivery would take until the start of next year.” (The Guardian)

• Over the last six weeks, both Russia and Ukraine have achieved hard-fought but limited gains. The key operational challenge for both sides is to generate formations of uncommitted, capable troops which can exploit the tactical successes to create operational breakthroughs.
• Russian forces remain dangerous. Ukraine requires sustained support. The West must continue its support to Ukraine’s efforts to defeat Russia’s invasion — and must do so quickly. The Russian military, as the saying goes, retains a vote on the course of the war despite its weaknesses and is actively setting conditions for major operations as the war enters its second year.
• Some Western officials increasingly fear that Ukraine has only a narrow window to prepare to repel an anticipated Russian springtime offensive, and are moving fast to give the Ukrainians sophisticated weapons they had earlier refused to send for fear of provoking Moscow.
• The Kremlin is likely preparing to conduct a decisive strategic action in the next six months intended to regain the initiative and end Ukraine’s current string of operational successes.
• The UK prime minister has confirmed that the UK will  provide 14 of its Challenger 2 main battle tanks and other advanced artillery support to Ukraine in the coming weeks. However, battle tanks from German industrial reserves wanted by Ukraine will not be ready to be delivered until 2024.
• A Russian service member detonated a grenade in a military barracks in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, possibly in a fratricidal act of resistance against mobilization. The grenade attack killed three and injured 10 mobilized personnel
• The Kremlin is belatedly taking personnel mobilization, reorganization, and industrial actions to conduct the “special military operation” as a major conventional war. The main thrust of the late-coming reforms include:
• intensifying both near- and long-term force-generation efforts;
• conserving mobilized personnel for future use — an inflection from the Kremlin’s initial approach of rushing untrained bodies to the front in fall 2022;
• attempting to reinvigorate its defense industrial base;
• re-centralizing control of the war effort in Ukraine under the Ministry of Defense;
• intensifying its conditioning of the Russian information space to support the war.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above:  Many analysts and the Ukrainian military believe that russia is running low on high precision missiles that it uses to wage war on the civilian population.  (Politico)

General Staff on Facebook

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 116,080 (+740)
• Tanks, 3,118 (+12)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,204 (+21)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,099/438 (+5/1)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 220 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 286/276 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,872 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 749 (0)
• Warships/boats, 17 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,870 (+24)
• Special equipment, 190 (+3)

GENERAL STAFF CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above:  January 14, 2023. Dnipro City, Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine. Russia’s defense ministry said on Sunday that it “achieved its goal”. (Patrol Police of Ukraine)

Video: russia world left its distinct calling card in Maryinka, Donetsk, again.  Maryinka was part of the Zaporizhzhian Sich until Catherine the great russian empress ordered the Sich’s destruction in 1775. In 1943, Nazi occupants massacred the town’s Jewish population.  In April 2014, russian proxies took Maryinka, but Ukrainian forces regained it in August.  Today, It is under constant enemy bombardment. 

💔This is what Russia has turned into the Ukrainе city Maryinka in the Donetsk region.

Telegram: OperatinoZSU#RuWarCrimes_UW pic.twitter.com/qKCDtMGiZr

— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) January 16, 2023

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and twenty-seventh day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Last day, the enemy launched 2 missile strikes and carried out more than 55 attacks from rocket salvo systems, in particular, on the civil infrastructure of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions.
• The threat of enemy air and missile strikes remains.
• Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces have repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of Belogorivka, Luhansk Oblast, and Verkhnokamianske, Krasnopolivka, Spirne, Sil, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Novobakhmutivka, Velyka Novosilka, Prechistivka, Krasnohorivka, Pobyeda, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, Mayorsk and Mar’ inka in Donetsk
• The areas of the settlements of Seredyna-Buda, Pavlivka, Kindrativka and Popivka of the Sumy region and Staritsa, Guryiv Kozachok, Kozacha Lopan, Budarki, Vovchansk, Strelecha, Krasne Pershe, Ohirtseve, Ternova, Khatne and Topoli in the Kharkiv
• On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy shelled the areas of 23 settlements. Among them are Dvorichna, Kotlyarivka, Krokhmalne, Berestov and Kislivka in the Kharkiv region and Novoselyvske, Stelmakhivka, Nevske, Kuzmyne and Chervonopivka in the Luhansk
• Areas of more than 25 settlements were damaged by fire in the Bakhmut In particular, these are Spirne, Ozaryanivka, Klishchiivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, Druzhba New York and Northern Donetsk region.
• In the Avdiivsk direction, tanks and the entire range of artillery shelled Georgiivka, Vesele, Avdiivka, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Vodyane, Orlivka, and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk
• On the Novopavlivskyi direction, Vugledar, Prechistivka and Mykilski Dachi of the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.
• In the Zaporizhia direction, the enemy fired tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery at the positions of our troops in the areas of more than 24 settlements, including: Mylovo, Gulyaipole, Dorozhnianka, Zaliznychne, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Plavni, Shcherbaki, and Kachkarivka Zaporizhia region
• In the Kherson direction, the enemy continues shelling populated areas along the right bank of the Dnipro River. 17 settlements were affected, including Antonivka, Zolota Balka, Havrylivka, Lviv, Sadov and Kherson.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: First responders in Kharkiv don’t take the weekend off. (Golovne in UA)

Video: Special forces operation repelling enemy near Kreminna. 

Map via ISW

• Over the weekend, intense fighting continued in the Kreminna Around Kremina, fighting has been characterized by a complex series of local attacks and counter-attacks in wooded country. However, overall, the UAF continue to gradually advance their front line east on the edge of Kremina town.

DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above:  What the russian “liberation” of Soledar looks like. (RFERL)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian officials specified that a Russian Kh-22 missile struck a residential building in Dnipro City on January 14, killing at least 25–30 civilians
• Over the weekend, intense fighting continued in the Bakhmut As of 15 January 2023, Ukrainian Armed Forces almost certainly maintained positions in Soledar, north of Bakhmut, in the face of continued Wagner Group assaults.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: Good morning, Kherson! russia world has come to visit. (IZBIRKOM)

Video: Ukrainian Navy demining group destroys a mine on the shores of Odesa Oblast

На Одещині було виявлено чергову протикорабельну міну, яку штормове море винесло на узбережжя

Спеціальною групою розмінування Військово-Морських Сил Збройних Сил України міну було знешкоджено на місці і переміщено до місця знищення, де було виконано контрольований підрив. pic.twitter.com/9gW9VEreCe

— Військово-Морські Сили ЗС України (@UA_NAVY) January 8, 2023

Map via ISW

• Russian forces increased their presence in occupied Kherson Oblast while some Wagner Group forces arrived in Kherson Oblast.