Victory Chronicles
-DAY 324

Above:  Moscow’s military cream-of-the-crop Shoigu and Gerasimov. Doomed and doomed-er? (Photo: Mick Ryan)

Below: The mayors of Budapest, Prague, Bratislava and Warsaw visited Bucha on Wednesday.  Mayor Gergely Karacsony of Budapest had a message for russia supporters: 

“Anyone who loses their moral compass shall come to Kyiv or here to #Bucha and look in the eyes of the survivors, the friends and relatives of the victims. This isn’t a war between Ukraine and Russia. This is a war between the good and the bad.”

Anyone who loses their moral compass shall come to Kyiv or here to #Bucha and look in the eyes of the survivors, the friends and relatives of the victims. This isn’t a war between Ukraine and Russia. This is a war between the good and the bad. #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/vLQZD7XFEF

— Gergely Karácsony (@bpkaracsonyg) January 12, 2023

• Putin lambasted a deputy PM in public for failure to fix aviation manufacturing dysfunction, observing that some enterprises have yet to receive state orders for 2023 and are not hiring more staff or preparing to increase output. The DPM tried to explain that the authorization of contracts is “based on the opportunities that are formed by the budget,” highlighting the difference between the Russian financial reality and Putin’s unrealistic objectives for a revitalization of the Russian defense industrial sector.
• Russia plans to increase its military from 1.35 million in Sep 2022 to 1.5 million and form at least 20 new military divisions in 2023, indicating “the Kremlin’s intentions to engage in a long-term confrontation and preparations for large-scale hostilities.”
• A Russian Telegram channel claimed on January 11 that preparation for a second wave of mobilization is well underway in the upper echelons of the Russian state, that  officials are visiting residences in Crimea, handing out mobilization summons.
• Russian Ministry of Defense announced a major restructuring of the senior command structure and a campaign to reform tactical, operational, and strategic aspects.
• Russia’s significant personnel, weapons, and equipment losses; the effects of international sanctions; and structural weaknesses in the Russian military apparatus have reduced Russia’s force generation capabilities and ultimately raise doubts about whether Russian forces can implement these reforms.
• The Russian Ministry of Digital Development is working to lure IT specialists who left the country to return to support the development of IT companies operating in Russia. The ministry is working to offer a guaranteed protection against conscription for Russian IT specialists.
• Russian occupation authorities are failing to remove the hryvnia from circulation in occupied territories and are checking the phones of residents in occupied territories and demanding that Ukrainians delete all Ukrainian applications from their phones, particularly Ukrainian banks.

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Above: A Russian BREM-1 armored recovery vehicle destroyed in the Kherson region.  (Defense Express)

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses since February 24, 2022 (with daily additions)

• Liquidated personnel, 114,130 (+740)
• Tanks, 3,098 (+4)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,167 (+8)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 2,086/437 (+4/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 218 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 286/276 (+4/0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,865 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 723 (0)
• Warships/boats, 17 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,833 (+7)
• Special equipment, 184 (0)

Drone video of operation with commentary by the commander on how a squad of 10 defenders neutralized/captured 14 enemy soldiers in December. 

A simple builder from Chernivtsi, Andriy Kotsik, who never had combat experience, commanded an assault group of 7 mobilised men, who successfully captured the Russian position without losses, destroyed 4 and captured 10 POWs, captured 3 machine guns, a sniper rifle, and more. pic.twitter.com/zrtI11tI0Z

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 12, 2023

Above: Town of Hulyaipole, Zaporizhzhya.  Enemy strikes on houses this week caused civilian fatalities. (CFAMUKR)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and twenty-fourth day of the Russian large-scale invasion began.

• Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Stelmakhivka, Makiivka and Bilogorivka of the Luhansk region and Spirne, Rozdolivka, Sil, Krasna Gora, Pidhorodne, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Predtechine, Kurdyumivka, Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Velika Novosilka, Donetsk
• At the same time, the enemy launched 5 rocket attacks on the peaceful cities of Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk and Zaporizhzhia. In addition, the occupiers carried out 52 attacks from multiple rocket launchers and 18 airstrikes.
• On the Siversky and Slobozhansky directions, the areas of Senkivka and Karpovichi settlements of Chernihiv region were shelled; Porokhon and Bachivsk of the Sumy region, as well as Strelecha, Zelene, Ternova, Staritsa, Ohirtseve, Gatyshche, Vovchansk, Chugunivka and Ridkodub in the Kharkiv
• In the Kupyansk direction, the areas of Dvorichna, Zapadne, Synkivka, Orlyanka, Kislivka, Kotlyarivka, Kolisnykyvka, Berestov, Bohuslavka, Ivanivka in Kharkiv region and Stelmakhivka in Luhansk region were hit by fire.
• In the Lymansky direction, the enemy shelled Grekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Chervonopivka, and Dibrova in the Luhansk
• In the direction of Bakhmut, Spirne, Bilogorivka, Rozdolivka, Soledar, Krasna Gora, Paraskoviivka, Pidhorodne, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba, and Severny in Donetsk region were damaged by fire.
• Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka were shelled in the Avdiivka
• Vugledar, Prechistivka and Zolota Niva of the Donetsk region were affected by fire in the Novopavlovsk direction.
• In the Zaporizhia region, the enemy fired tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Vremivka and Vilne Pole settlements in Donetsk region and Gulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Gulyaipilske, Chervone, Charivne, Biloghirya, Mala Tokmachka, Orihiv and Kamianske in the Zaporizhia region .On the Kherson direction, Antonivka and Kherson, in particular, were hit by mortar and artillery fire.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

Above: The Svatove-Kreminna front has been heavily mined by invaders. (UNIAN)

• The UK  Ministry of Defence reported that heavy fighting continued on the approaches to Kreminna over the last two days and that Russian forces have transferred elements of Russian Airborne Forces to the vulnerable Kreminna sector of the front line.
• Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Kreminna, which may indicate that Ukrainian forces have made further advances towards the settlement.
• Ukrainian forces improved their tactical positions near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna) and are preventing Russian forces from attacking the settlement.

Above: russia world footsteps in the farm fields around Bakhmut. (Maxar Technologies)

• Geolocated footage posted on January 11 and 12 indicates that Russian forces likely control most if not all of Soledar, and have likely pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western outskirts of the settlement.
• Russian forces’ likely capture of Soledar is not operationally significant and is unlikely to presage an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.
• The capture of Soledar consumed significant Russian resources for a highly attritional tactical victory which will accelerate the degradation of its assault on Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on January 12. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut itself; within 19km northeast of Bakhmut near Rozdolivka, Sil, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, and Pidhorodne; and within 22km southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Mayorsk.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on January 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Pervomaiske (12km southwest of Avdiivka) and near Krasnohorivka (23km southwest of Avdiivka).

State Border Guard video of Soledar, Donetsk, “This is what Soledar sounds like now”. 

Так зараз "звучить" Соледар, місто, яке колись, до приходу в Україну російських окупантів, було одним з найкомфортніших та найспокійніших в Донецькій області.

Відео надано Державна прикордонна служба України pic.twitter.com/uF1Z52MRfA

— Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (@GeneralStaffUA) January 12, 2023

Above: An estimated 100,000 displaced Ukrainians from south central Ukraine returned to Mykolaiv Oblast following the liberation of Kherson. (We Are Ukraine)

• Russian forces continued defensive operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River on January 12, constructing a network of trenches in Radensk, Kherson Oblast (25km southeast of Kherson City along the E97 Kherson City-Kalanchak highway), using shipping containers previously used at hospitals in the surrounding areas.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities may be planning to deport more than 100,000 Kherson Oblast residents to Russia under fears that Russian forces may lose further territory in Kherson Oblast. Russia issued a government order in mid-December allocating $2.6 billion for the resettlement of 100,000 Kherson Oblast residents to the Russian Federation. The forced deportation of Ukrainian citizens to the Russian Federation amounts to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign.
• Russian forces are bringing engineers from Russia to the ZNPP as existing ZNPP workers continue to refuse to sign a contract with Rosatom.
• Russian occupation authorities nationalized the immovable and movable property of some residents in the occupied Kakhovka district of Kherson Oblast.