Victory Chronicles
-DAY 307

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS

Above: Kyiv’s Motherland statue has escaped her soviet past, festooned in yellow and blue for Christmas 2022. (Euromaidan Press)

• The Kremlin has been intensifying this information campaign throughout December, likely concerned over the lack of support for his war in Ukraine among elites and may be setting information conditions for the nationalization of their property. Russian State Duma’s preparations to introduce a bill to increase tax rates for Russians who had left the country after the start of the “special military operation,” likely as a form of punishment for evading the war effort. The Kremlin will likely use funds generated through the tax to fund its war in Ukraine.
• Putin’s December 25 statement is a part of a deliberate information campaign aimed at misleading the West to push Ukraine into making preliminary concessions. The Kremlin did not publish the full transcript of Putin’s interview on its official website to facilitate the misrepresentation of Putin’s full statement.
• The former enemy Chief of Staff of the Eastern Military District Lieutenant General Nikiforov was appointed as the new commander of the WMD and is commanding the Russian western grouping of forces in Ukraine out of a command post in Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast. Nikiforov has previous experience commanding Wagner Group elements in Donbas from 2014 to 2015.
• Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) offered Russian passports to more than 119,000 Tajiks between January and September in exchange for a passport, upsetting several prominent Russian milbloggers who had made xenophobic remarks that these 119,000 migrants from Tajikistan will never integrate into Russian society, will form their own diasporas that hate Russians, and are already committing violent crimes in Russia.
• Putin has been increasing his interactions with the Russian military-industrial complex, likely in false hopes that Russia can recreate the Soviet Union’s production capabilities. Putin had been visiting several defense factories and had met with the heads of the Russian military-industrial complex during the past week. Putin had also appointed Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev to the new position of First Deputy Chairman of the Military Industrial Commission responsible for coordinating weapons production for the Russian Armed Forces.
• Putin approved a decree on December 26 for residents of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts that codifies various avenues for acquiring Russian citizenship, and likely indicates a widespread unwillingness of residents of occupied areas to apply for Russian passports. This notably undermines the Kremlin narrative of widespread support for Russian citizenship in annexed areas of Ukraine.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center noted that Russian forces in occupied areas are kidnapping Ukrainian citizens in order to search for partisan elements and extract confessions on the underground movement.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on December 26 that Russian authorities began to “integrate” churches in occupied areas by only allowing Kremlin-affiliated churches to remain active.
• Belarusian Ministry of Defense Leonid Kasinsky stated on December 25 that the Iskander tactical ballistic missile systems and the S-400 air defense systems that Russia deployed to Belarus are on active combat duty and are fully prepared to perform unspecified “tasks for their intended purpose.”

General Staff’s Daily Video Digest with English subtitles

Belarusians volunteers fighting ruzzia in Ukraine announced the formation of a Belarusian Volunteer Corps.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Screenshot from video showing explosions at Engels Air Force base deep inside russia, caused by a Ukrainian drone attack.  (Igor Sushko)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 36 hours

• Liquidated personnel, 103,220 (+620)
• Tanks, 3,016 (0)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 6,024 (+7)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,998/418 (+2/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 212 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 283/267 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,707 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 653 (0)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,652 (+5)
• Special equipment, 179 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: (The Guardian)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundred and seventh day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• Over the past 24 hours, the enemy has launched 2 missile strikes and fired 44 rounds from multiple rocket launchers.
• In the Seversky direction, the Vyntorivka, Manukhivka, Ryzhivka and Vorozhba districts of the Sumy region were shelled.
• In the Slobozhansk direction, areas of the settlements of Hlyboke, Krasne, Staritsa, Ohirtseve, Novomlynsk, Dvorichna and Kupyansk of the Kharkiv region were affected by the fire.
• On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy shelled the areas of Berestov, Tavilzhanka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne and Pershotravneve settlements in Kharkiv region with tanks, barrel and rocket artillery; Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Kolomiychikha, Pershotravneve and Ploschanka in Luhansk region and Yampolivka, Torske, Dibrova and Hryhorivka in Donetsk
• In the Bakhmut and Avdiiv directions, the enemy inflicted fire damage in the areas of more than 25 settlements. In particular, these are Bilogorivka, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Bila Gora, Kurdyumivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk
• Prechistivka, Zolota Niva and Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region were affected in the Novopavlovsk
• In the Zaporizhzhia region, the districts of Temyrivka, Olhivskyi, Poltavka, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Novoandriivka, and Plavniv of the Zaporizhzhia region were shelled with mortars and barrel artillery.
• In the Kherson direction, the civilian infrastructure of Berislav, Vesele, Sadove, Antonivka and Stanislav settlements of the Kherson region and the city of Kherson were damaged by the shelling of the occupiers.

Believe in the Armed Forces! Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued counterattacks to regain lost positions northwest of Svatove on December 25 and 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked towards Lyman Pershyi (50 km northwest of Svatove), Stelmakhivka (15km west of Svatove), and Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove) on December 25.
• Russian forces along the Svatove-Kreminna line are comprised of mobilized elements from Moscow Oblast, as well as elements of the 144th Motor Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District and the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District. This composite force grouping suggests that Russian forces are pulling troops from various points throughout the theater to fill holes in the Svatove-Kreminna line and compensate for the continued degradation of conventional units.
• Ukrainian troops continued to strike Russian concentration areas in the rear areas of Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian manpower concentration near Polovynkyne, a settlement on the southern outskirts of Starobilsk and along the H21 Starobilsk-Luhansk City highway.

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above:  (AP News)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on December 25 and 26. Donetsk Oblast Head Pavlo Kyrylenko noted on December 26 that the pace of Russian offensives on Bakhmut has not slowed and that Russian troops are deploying forces to the area and potentially raising additional reserves.
• Russian troops conducted unsuccessful ground attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Vesele, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, and Pidhorodne; and south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka, Kurdiumivka, Mayorsk, and Pivnichne.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on December 25 and 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops conducted unsuccessful ground attacks on Krasnohorivka, Vesele, Vodiane, and Marinka (all ranging from the northwestern to southwest outskirts of Donetsk City) between December 25 and 26.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: Message from Mariupol “Survive” (Ukraine World)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces are continuing unspecified combat operations against Russian forces on Kinburn Spit, while Russian forces are using their positions on the spit to shell port areas in Mykolaiv Oblast.
• Russian forces are continuing to target liberated settlements and Ukrainian positions in right-bank Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts. Russian forces also continued to shell the densely populated cities of Beryslav and Kherson.
• Ukrainian military officials indicated that Russian forces may be concentrating forces for offensive or demonstrative operations in Zaporizhia It is unclear if the Russian military command will use this group for demonstration actions or in preparation for an offensive operation and stated that Ukrainian forces have not observed a significant increase in forces in Zaporizhia Oblast at this time.
• Ukrainian forces struck Russian headquarters in Zabaryne (approximately 30km southwest of Kherson City) during a meeting of Southern Military District (SMD) officers.[48] The strike reportedly injured up to 70 Russian servicemen.
• Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head posted a picture on December 25 reportedly of children from occupied Zaporizhia Oblast in Moscow and stated that 240 children arrived in Moscow to see the Kremlin’s Christmas tree as part of the “New Years with Big Changes” youth engagement scheme.