Victory Chronicles
-DAY 300

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: KREMLIN TAKE BEGGING BOWL TO MINSK

Above: St Mykolai Day is Ukraine’s celebration just for children – this year in bomb shelters. (Pavlo Kyrylenko)

• Russian authorities are continuing to employ various schemes to transport Ukrainian children to Russia. A Russian new source reported on December 18 and 19 that children from Skadovsk, Primorsky, Henichesk, and other settlements in Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast traveled to Moscow to attend the first congress of the “Russian Movement of Children and Youth.”
• Russian forces targeted Kyiv with Shahed-131 and -136 kamikaze drone strikes overnight on December 18–19. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 30 Russian Shahed drones, including 10 over southern Ukraine and 18 over Kyiv. Russian strikes did manage to hit an unspecified infrastructure object in Kyiv,
• Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov assessed that Russian forces have enough missiles left to conduct three or four more rounds of strikes and then would have to acquire more missiles from Iran, which Ukraine would struggle to defend against; but he noted that Ukrainian forces know how to defend against Shahed kamikaze drones.
• Putin announced that he may consider training Belarusian combat aviation crews for the use of “munitions with special warheads”.
• Putin notably stated that “Russia is not interested in absorbing anyone,” when referring to Belarus. This statement followed Lukashenko’s reiteration of Belarusian independence and full sovereignty on December 16 and appears to be a defensive reaction to Lukashenko’s comments.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above:  Fragments of destroyed Iranian drones. Ukraine is learning to defend against these kamakazis used by the enemy to wage war on civilians. (New Voice of Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

• Liquidated personnel, 99,230 (+430)
• Tanks, 2,995 (+7)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,974 (+5)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,960/410 (+7/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 212 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 281/266 (+0/2)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,680 (+23)
• Cruise missiles, 653 (0)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,599 (+7)
• Special equipment, 177 (+2)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast under continual attack. Ukraine would use longer-range weapons to push invaders out of missile range. (New Voice of Ukraine)

Glory to Ukraine! The three hundredth day of the Russian large-scale invasion has begun.

• During the day, the enemy carried out 4 missile and 60 air strikes, and also carried out more than 80 attacks from rocket salvo systems. As a result of these strikes, civilian infrastructure and the population were affected.
• The enemy continues to focus its efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Bakhmut and Avdiiv It is trying to restore the lost position on Lymanskyi and conducts defense in other directions.
• Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Stelmakhivka, Chervonopivka, and Serebryanske of the Luhansk region, and Verkhnyokamianske, Pidhorodne, Bakhmut, Opytne, Kurdyumivka, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka of the Donetsk
• The threat of enemy air and missile strikes on critical infrastructure remains throughout Ukraine.
• On the Siverskyi direction, the settlements of Tymonovichi, Karpovychi and Kostobobriv of Chernihiv region and Novovasylivka, Kindrativka, Vodolagi, Zapsillia and Yizdetske in Sumy region were hit by mortar attacks.
• In the Slobozhansk direction, the enemy carried out mortar and artillery attacks on the positions of our troops in the areas of the settlements of Strelecha, Hlyboke, Staritsa, Vovchansk, Volokhivka, Chugunivka, and Dvorichna of the Kharkiv
• On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy fired tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery on the areas of the settlements of Kotlyarivka, Krokhmalne, Berestov in the Kharkiv region and Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Makiivka, Ploshanka, Chervonpopivka and Dibrova in the Luhansk
• In the Bakhmut and Avdiiv directions, the enemy continues to conduct assaults, fired tanks, mortars and rocket artillery at our positions in the areas of thirty settlements. In particular, these are Verkhnokamianske, Berestovka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Hryhorivka, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk
• In the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson directions, the enemy continues artillery shelling of the positions of our troops and civilian infrastructure along the right bank of the Dnipro River. The areas of Temyrivka, Chervone, Mali Shcherbaki and Plavni settlements in the Zaporizhia region and Chornobayivka, Antonivka, Kherson, Mykilske, Tokarivka and Mylove in the Kherson region were affected.

Believe in the Armed Forces! We will win! Glory to Ukraine!

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 18 and 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Stelmakhivka (15km west of Svatove) between December 18 and 19.
• Russian troops attempted to attack Ukrainian positions around Kreminna near Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna), Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), and near Hryhorivka, Serebrianka, and Bilohorivka, all about 10km south of Kreminna.
• A Russian milblogger criticized the Russian government on December 18 for its inability to reconstruct occupied Luhansk Oblast quickly or effectively. The milblogger stated that the oblast experiences difficulties with accessing certain goods, fuel, communication, and the internet; and that prices for basic goods are skyrocketing.
• Russian telecom operators are hesitant to enter occupied territories out of fear that the war will destroy their equipment and noted that there is no way to get new communications base stations because Nokia and Ericsson pulled out of Russia.

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above:  “Bakhmut loves Ukraine”. (RFERL)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces reportedly lost positions south of Bakhmut on December 18 that they fought for “all autumn.”
• Russian troops continued unsuccessful ground attacks on Bakhmut itself, northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamyanske (30km northeast), Vyimka (22km northeast), Vesele (16km northeast), Bakhmutske, (7km northeast) and Pidhorodne (3km northeast), and south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka (7km southwest) and Andriivka (10km southwest) between December 18 and 19.
• Geolocated footage posted on December 19 shows Ukrainian coordinate drone reconnaissance guiding artillery strikes on Russian positions on Fedora Maksymenka street on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
• Wagner Group is continuing to play a major role in attritting Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut and that Wagner Group command takes advantage of the tendency of recruits to engage in brutal behavior because it protects high-value leadership assets at the expense of low-value recruits.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on December 18 and 19. Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Oleksandropil (15km north of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske (all on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City), and Marinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka (all on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City) between December 18 and 19.
• Russian sources also widely claimed that Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defenses in Marinka’s city center on December 18 and are advancing further west on December 19, claiming that the capture of Marinka will allow Russian troops the ability to bypass Vuhledar to the southwest and advance northwest towards Kurakhove, which reportedly is a major Ukrainian transportation hub and rail line.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA-CRIMEA

Above: The orcs fled northern Kherson, now shell civilians daily. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are pulling back some elements from areas along the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Russian forces continue to construct defenses in eastern Kherson Oblast and are attempting to withdraw their main units from Ukrainian artillery range along the Dnipro River. Russian artillery has the same range as Ukrainian artillery, however, and pulling Russian forces out of Ukrainian artillery range will also inhibit Russian forces’ ability to strike across the Dnipro River with their existing weapons systems.

• Russian forces reduced their presence in Nova Kakhovka but that it is unclear whether Russian forces are fully withdrawing from the settlement.
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian force concentrations in rear areas of Zaporizhia Oblast as Russian forces continue to reinforce and establish defenses in the area. Ukrainian strikes against Russian forces in Berdyansk, Tokmak, and Polohy injured over 150 military personnel and destroyed 10 pieces of equipment and an ammunition depot.
• Russian occupation officials introduced a 24-hour curfew in Zaporizhia Oblast and plan to specifically keep the curfew in place from December 30 to January 3 in Berdyansk and Chernihivka, Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian occupation forces began a “new regime of terror” and are actively keeping Ukrainian residents from leaving occupied territories ahead of the holidays, partially in an effort to use them as human shields against Ukrainian forces. Fedorov stated that Russian occupation officials have increased filtration activities on alternative evacuation routes in occupied territories and prevented Ukrainians from exiting occupied territories since December 15.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on December 19 that Russian occupation officials even prevented Ukrainians with exit passes from leaving occupied territories and closed the exit checkpoint at Vasylivka, Zaporizhia Oblast, to prevent Ukrainians from exiting occupied territories until further notice.