Victory Chronicles
-DAY 293

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS

Above: Bakhmut. (New York Times)

• Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that Ukraine intends to continue counteroffensives in winter 2022–2023 after the hard freeze enables maneuver warfare, supporting an ISW assessment.
• With the aim of replenishing the losses in manpower and re-staffing the units of the 1st Army Corps, russian women are called up for mobilization. 28 women have already been drafted and sent for training by the Kalinin District Military Commissariat of the city of Donetsk.
• The cost of the Russian war in Ukraine will likely continue to undermine Russian geopolitical campaigns worldwide. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on December 11 that Putin signed a law allocating over nine trillion rubles (approximately $143 billion) for defense, security, and law enforcement for the 2023 budget. The UK MoD assessed that Russia’s defense spending significantly increased and will represent over 30% of Russia’s entire 2023 budget.
• Russian forces have been moving equipment and personnel from other conflict zones such as Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh and may deprioritize other combat and soft-power engagements in favor of sustaining a protracted war in Ukraine.
• Russian Armed Forces are intensifying their forced mobilization campaigns in occupied Luhansk and Zaporizhia oblasts ahead of a predicted second mobilization wave in Russia. The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated that Russian forces are searching for and distributing summonses to Ukrainian men ahead of the new Russian mobilization wave scheduled for January–February 2023.
• Russian occupation authorities are continuing to target Ukrainian children in occupied territories with propaganda to justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated on December 12 schools in occupied territories hired Russian teachers to brainwash Ukrainian children with stories that Russia has liberated them from “Nazis.”
• The Ukrainian and Tartar partisan group “Atesh” claimed responsibility for setting fire to Russian barracks in Sovietske, Crimea, on December 10, noting that they only targeted the base of mobilized Russian men.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above:  Japan Times

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

• Liquidated personnel, 95,260 (+500)
• Tanks, 2,966 (0)
• Armored personnel vehicles 5,930 +2
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,931/404 (+2/7)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 211 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 281/264 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,617 (0)
• Cruise missiles, 592 (0)
• Warships/ boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,549 (+5)
• Special equipment, 170 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Villages all along the contact line are bombarded daily by enemy fire. (The Guardian)

• During the day, the occupiers launched 6 rocket attacks, 4 of which hit the civilian infrastructure of the city of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk oblast, as well as shelled the city of Kherson with multiple rocket launchers.
• During the day, the enemy carried out mortar and artillery shelling in the areas of Seredyna-Buda and Ryasne settlements of the Sumy oblast, as well as Strilecha, Starytsa, Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, Volohivka, Okhrimivka, Chuhunivka, Ambarne, Dvorichna and Kamianka of the Kharkiv
• In the direction of Kupyansk, the areas of the settlements of Kyslivka, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, Berestove in Kharkiv oblast and Stelmakhivka in Luhansk oblast came under fire.
• Terny, Yampolivka and Torske districts of Donetsk oblast were hit by fire in the Lyman direction.
• In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy fired tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of almost twenty settlements. In particular, these are Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, Bilohorivka, Vesele, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar and Druzhba in Donetsk
• Zalizne, New York, Berdychi, Avdiyivka, Opytne, Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka of the Donetsk oblast came under fire in the Avdiivka district.
• In the Novopavlivka direction, the areas of Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka and Prechystivka of the Donetsk oblast were shelled.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy inflicted fire damage on Vremivka in Donetsk oblast and Zelene Pole, Novopil, Novodarivka, Malynivka, Hulyaipole, Dorozhnyanka, Hulyaipilske, Charivne, Bilohiria, Mala Tokmachka and Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia
• In the Kherson direction, the enemy shelled settlements in the Kherson region and the city of Kherson with barrel and rocket artillery, there were casualties among the civilian population, and civilian infrastructure was damaged.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Voice of America

Map via ISW

• Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives near the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border. An independent Ukrainian analytical organization, the Center for Defense Strategies, noted on December 12 that the Russians are centralizing and systematizing the command and control of Western Military District (WMD) troops in the Kharkiv-Luhansk direction.
• Russian and Ukrainian reporting has additionally suggested that there is a high concentration of mobilized personnel operating on this axis, likely in order to fill gaps in WMD units that have been degraded over the course of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives in northeastern Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Svatove in order to regain lost positions on December 11 and 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks 15km west of Svatove near Andriivka and 15km northwest of Svatove near Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka between December 11 and 12.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive actions to regain lost positions west of Kreminna on December 11 and 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops conducted unsuccessful attacks near Chervonopopivka and Zhytlivka (both within 5km north of Kreminna), Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka and Serebrianka (both about 10km south of Kreminna).
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian concentration areas in the rear of Luhansk Oblast on December 11 and 12. Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated on December 11 that Ukrainian troops struck a hotel in Kadiivka (60km southeast of Kreminna) where Wagner Group fighters were reportedly staying. Haidai noted that Wagner forces suffered high losses as a result of the strike.
• Haidai stated on December 12 that officials in the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) are gradually filling law enforcement vacancies in LNR territory with Russian citizens.

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above: “Bakhmut is Ukraine”.  (Lviv Journal)

Map via ISW

• Wagner Group fighters are largely responsible for driving offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Bakhmut and the western outskirts of Donetsk City, securing minor gains around Bakhmut over the last few months.
• An unnamed US military official stated that Wagner Group and Russian forces are engaged in intense battles for Bakhmut and committing significant resources to maintain the pace but noted that Ukrainian forces “continue to hold the line.”
• Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces have changed their tactical force composition in the Bakhmut direction by switching from using company and battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to using assault units to perform purely offensive tasks.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut and settlements northeast of the city in Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Soledar, Bakhmutske, and Pidhorodne, on December 11 and 12.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area on December 11 and 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on Krasnohorivka (19km west of Donetsk City), Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City), and Novomykhailivka (about 25km southwest of Donetsk City) on December 12.
• Russian forces conducted defensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on December 11 and 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 11 that Russian forces are defending their positions near Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka (31km northwest of Vuhledar), Zolota Nyva (19km northwest of Vuhledar), and Pavlivka (3km southwest of Vuhledar).
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are forcefully mobilizing Ukrainian men in an effort to replenish elements operating in the Severodonetsk direction and are enforcing strict movement restrictions on men residing in Khrystalnyi on the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblast administrative border.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Patrolling near the Antonivsky Bridge destroyed by the enemy during its retreat.  (Euronews)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued to strengthen defensive positions in Kherson Oblast amid poor weather conditions on December 11 and 12. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that there is a heavy fog in Kherson Oblast with low visibility and icy roads, making road transportation difficult.
• Ukrainian Tavria Defense Force Grouping Spokesperson Yevheny Yerin stated that Russian forces are redeploying units in the Kherson direction, strengthening defensive lines, and conducting sabotage and reconnaissance operations.
• Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets and logistics hubs along critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in southern Ukraine. Geolocated footage shows the aftermath of a strike against a restaurant-hotel complex in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast overnight on December 10–11, which Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said Russian forces used as a base for the Federal Security Services (FSB) and to quarter soldiers.
• Fedorov also stated that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian checkpoint and logistics hub in Bohdanivka and a radar station in Semenivka, both northeast of Melitopol, and two Russian military bases in Polohy and Maiske just south of the frontline.
• Russian forces are lacking sufficient infrastructure to support their troops in Crimea. The 1472nd Naval Clinical Hospital in Sevastopol is facing blood donor supply shortages for wounded Russian personnel. The milbloggers stated that the main cause of the shortage of supplies is the hospitals’ lack of budgetary provisions for blood-transfusion-related materials in 2022 and implied that corruption is at play.