Victory Chronicles
-DAY 288

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: KREMLIN PUSHING TO GRAB MORE DONBAS BEFORE PAUSE AND NEW YEAR DRAFT

Above: Belarus announced joint anti-terrorist training will restrict civilian movements this week. (Aljazeera)

• In the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka areas, the enemy is concentrating its efforts on conducting offensive operations. In other directions, it tries to hold the temporarily captured territories, concentrates its efforts on restraining the actions of units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, equips defensive lines and positions, conducts reconnaissance.
• Kremlin is conditioning Russian domestic audiences to expect a protracted, grinding war in Ukraine that continues to seek the conquest of additional Ukrainian territory.
• The Russian information space responded positively to assertions and set further conditions for the protraction of the war, with one milblogger comparing Ukraine to Syria and noting that Russian forces did not start meaningfully experiencing victories on the battlefield until years into the operation.
• An operational pause this winter would likely prematurely culminate Ukraine’s counter-offensive operations, increase the likelihood that Ukraine loses the initiative, and grant degraded Russian forces a valuable three-to-four-month reprieve to reconstitute and prepare to fight on better footing.  Kremlin seems unwilling to risk losing domestic momentum by halting offensive operations even briefly, let alone to pursue an off-ramp short of his full objectives
• Russian efforts to pressure Belarus into joining the war in Ukraine may be causing internal friction in the Belarusian military. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 7 that soldiers of the Belarusian border service and the Belarusian Armed forces are growing increasingly dissatisfied with the activities of the Belarusian military-political leadership due to the threat of Belarus entering the war in Ukraine.
• An independent Russian media source notably reported on December 5 that mobilization efforts may resume on December 12 and that 700,000 more Russians will mobilize between December and February.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above:  Occupiers said that a fire set off explosions at an ammo depot near Dzhankoy, Crimea, Ukraine, making winter tourists nervous. (The Guardian)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

• Liquidated personnel, 93,080 (+340)
• Tanks, 2,937 (+2)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,911 (+2)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,925/395 (+2/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 211 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 281/264 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,603 (+2)
• Cruise missiles, 592 (0)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,528 (+2)
• Special equipment, 164 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Enemy shelling is reducing historic Bakhmut to ash. (New York Times)

• Over the past day, the enemy launched 10 missile and 33 air strikes, launched 75 MLRS attacks.
• russian missiles damaged residential buildings and other civilian objects in the cities of Kramatorsk, Kryvyi Rih, as well as the village of Stepne in the Zaporizhzhia
• The threat of enemy missile strikes on the objects of the energy system and critical infrastructure throughout the territory of Ukraine remains in the future.
• In the Siverskyi direction, the enemy carried out artillery and mortar attacks on the settlements of Hremyach in Chernihiv oblast and Esman, Pavlivka, Kindrativka, Zapsillia and Myropillya in Sumy
• In the direction of Slobozhansk, the areas of the settlements of Strilecha, Krasne, Ternova, Ohirtseve, Starytsa, Hatyshche, Vovchanski Khutory, Volohivka, Chuhunivka and Kamianka of the Kharkiv oblast were shelled by tanks, mortars and barrel artillery.
• The enemy is conducting defensive operations in the Kupyansk The areas of the settlements of Dvorichna, Kupyansk, Kislivka, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, Pishchane, Berestove and Pershotravneve in the Kharkiv oblast and Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka in the Luhansk oblast were hit by fire from tanks and the entire spectrum of artillery.
• In the Lyman direction, the occupiers shelled the districts of Makiivka, Ploshchanka, and Nevske in the Luhansk oblast, and Terny, Yampolivka, and Lyman in Donetsk
• In the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, the enemy is concentrating its main efforts on conducting offensive operations. The settlements of Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Bila Hora, Kurdyumivka, Druzhba, Zalizne, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, Donetsk oblast were shelled by tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery.
• The enemy is defending in the Novopavlivsk Enemy artillery and mortars fired in the areas of Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, Prechystivka and Zolota Nyva settlements of the Donetsk oblast.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy is trying to improve the tactical position. Fired tanks, mortars and artillery in the areas of more than 10 settlements. Among them are Vremivka and Novopil of Donetsk oblast and Olhivske, Dorozhnyanka, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Stepove and Plavni of Zaporizhzhia oblast.
• In the Kherson direction, the enemy is defending, and is strengthening the grouping of troops. It carried out artillery shelling of the areas of more than 15 settlements, which are close to the contact line. These are, in particular, Osokorivka, Zolota Balka, Dudchany, Antonivka, Bilohrudove of the Kherson region, Kherson and Mykolaiv.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above:  Ruined family homes in Irpin. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces are likely increasing the pace of their counterattacks in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Serhiy Cherevaty stated on December 7 that Russian forces are preparing a counteroffensive operation in western Luhansk Oblast, part of which would include operations in the direction of Kupyansk.

LUHANSK-DONETSK-ZAPORIZHZHIA

Above: Mortar fire around Donetsk area.  (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on December 7. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian troops repelled attempted Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself, northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamyanske (27km northeast of Bakhmut), Spirne (25km northeast of Bakhmut), Yakovlivka (12km northeast of Bakhmut), and south of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest of Bakhmut) and Kurdiumivka (15km southwest of Bakhmut).
• The attack on Bila Hora suggests that Russian forces may have crossed the Siverskyi Donets Donbas canal in Kurdiumivka and are pushing west.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attacked northeast of Avdiivka toward Novobakhmutivka (13km northeast of Avdiivka) and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka and Novomykhailivka.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Repairing a destroyed bridget in Kherson territory. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued to conduct defensive operations and are likely continuing to reorientate their forces in eastern Kherson Oblast as of December 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending positions on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast as well as strengthening its grouping of forces there. Kherson Oblast Head Serhiy Khlan reported that Russian forces have decreased the number of their personnel on the eastern bank, where they are primarily stationed in observation posts.
• Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Kherson City, Ochakiv, Nikopol, and Zaporizhzhia City. The Zaporizhia Oblast Administration reported that Russian forces conducted drone attacks on targets in Zaporizhzhia City and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down six of the drones.
• Dnipropetrovsk Head Valentyn Reznichenko reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all eight Russian Shahed-136 drones in Dnipropetrovsk