Victory Chronicles
-DAY 261

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: MOSCOW LOST INITIATIVE MONTHS AGO, DESPERATE FOR CEASEFIRE

Above: russia will be defeated by hubris, corruption and incompetence. (National Geographic)

• ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions. Winter weather could disproportionately harm poorly-equipped Russian forces in Ukraine, but well-supplied Ukrainian forces are unlikely to halt their counteroffensives due to the arrival of winter weather and may be able to take advantage of frozen terrain to move more easily than they could in the muddy autumn months.
• Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces. A wintertime ceasefire would only benefit Russian forces, who would use that opportunity to bolster their faltering defenses and continue their genocidal campaign to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied parts of Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on November 7 that Ukraine is unwilling to negotiate with Russian forces until certain conditions are met, including the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the prosecution of Russian war criminals, payment for war damages, and promises that Russia will not again invade Ukraine.
• The Russian campaigns to capture all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts all culminated months ago (despite the repeated insistence of Russian forces on launching ineffective attacks), and Russian forces are firmly on the defensive across most of the frontline.
• Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated that Russian forces will likely further reduce the pace of their campaign to strike Ukrainian critical infrastructure, likely enabling Ukrainian authorities to address most of the damage to infrastructure.
• Ignat stated that Russian forces have begun to stockpile high-precision weapons systems to launch a future massive campaign reminiscent of the October 10 strikes, because small numbers of daily cruise missile and drone strikes are now generating few results.

CONTINUED ENEMY MANPOWER PROBLEMS

• Russian officials are busy attempting to train 120,000 conscripts to deploy to the frontlines in the spring. Ukrainian forces likely aim to liberate as much occupied territory as possible before those Russian reinforcements arrive.
• Mobilized men and their relatives continue to oppose the war through protests, social media dissent, and attempted desertions. Poor treatment and provisioning of mobilized Russian personnel are likely driving surrenders and desertions, as well as protests by the families of mobilized personnel within Russia.
• Russian forces are reportedly detaining those who refuse to fight (refuseniks) in a network of inhumane prisons in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, according to a November 10 report by the Ukrainian Telegram channel ASTRA.
• Russian authorities reportedly beat, starve, and pressure the refuseniks until they agree to return to the frontlines. A group of imprisoned men in Zaitseve, Luhansk Oblast told the outlet that they were sent to the frontlines around October 20 after very little training, whereupon their officers abandoned them without communications or logistics capabilities for eight days. The men walked about 60km to Starobilsk, where their relatives rented a bus to bring them home. Russian forces detained the men at the border and imprisoned them in a Zaitseve basement instead.
• Russian-language opposition outlet Agency News reported on November 10 that mobilized men from Omsk Oblast received military IDs that did not identify them as mobilized personnel, which then allowed Russian authorities to send the mobilized men to fight alongside the prisoners recruited by Wagner.
• Private military companies are unconstitutional in Russia, and mobilized personnel cannot legally be deployed to fight with any armed group other than the Russian military.
• Wagner forces reportedly use the prisoners as cannon fodder to draw Ukrainian fire and keep actual Wagner personnel out of harm’s way.
• Ukrainian National Guard Colonel Mykola Urshalovych noted on November 10 that Wagner prisoner recruits are the most likely demographic of all Russian forces to surrender to the Ukrainian National Guard, likely due to their poor treatment and dangerous deployments.
• Russian occupation authorities are likely facing economic repercussions stemming from their policy of forcibly mobilizing men in Russian-occupied areas. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 10 that local businesses in Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast are suffering major labor shortages because most men are either hiding from mobilization summonses or in the process of being mobilized.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: The Guardian

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

• Liquidated personnel, 79,400 (+710)
• Tanks, 2,814 (+10)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,696 (+14)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,817 (+12/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 205 (+0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 278/261 (+0/1)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,505 (+6)
• Cruise missiles, 399 (+0)
• Warships/boats, 16 (+0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,259 (+17)
• Special equipment, 159 (+0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Destroyed and looted medical clinic in Kherson Oblast. (The Guardian)

• Areas of populated areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions were hit by the enemy.
• In the Volyn and Polissya directions, the situation remains without significant changes. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine, providing it with infrastructure, territory and airspace. The formation of the russian-belarusian grouping of troops on the territory of the republic of belarus continues.
• The enemy shelled in such other directions:
  • in the Siversky direction – from mortars, in the area of the village of Hremyach, Chernihiv oblast;
  • in the Slobozhansky direction – from mortars, rocket and barrel artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Strilecha, Ternova, Starytsa, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk and Kolodyazne;
  • on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Kislivka, Tabaivka, Berestovka, Lisna Stinka, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Yampolivka and Lyman;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks and the entire range of artillery, in the areas of Rozdolivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Kurdyumivka, Toretsk, New York and Mayorsk settlements;
  • in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Avdiivka, Opytne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, Paraskoviivka and Novomykhailivka settlements;
  • in the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhia directions – from tanks and artillery of various calibers, in the areas of the settlements of Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Novosilka, Neskuchne, Novopil, Temyrivka, Olhivske, Uspenivka, Chervone, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Hulyaipilske, Charivne, Orihiv and Stepove.
• Musiiivka, Illinka, and Novokiivka of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast were directly hit by artillery fire in the South Buh direction.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Ukrainian forces are advancing slowly towards key transportation hub of Svatove village in eastern Luhansk. (Ukrainian News)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 10. Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Oleksiy Hromov announced that Ukrainian forces advanced by two kilometers in an unspecified area of Luhansk Oblast.
• The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Novoselivske and Makiivka, about 19km northwest and 21km southwest of Svatove, respectively.
• Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are moving large quantities of supplies and many reserves in the direction of Svatove-Kreminna but noted that Ukrainian forces continue to shell Russian main supply routes
• Social media footage also showed ruined asphalt and muddy roads in Svatove due to the Russian transfer of heavy equipment on poor roads, which may also complicate Russian equipment transfers.

7 wounds of #Kharkiv. Part 2
The building of the Faculty of Economics of the V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. On March 2, russia completely destroyed this historic building in the center of Kharkiv with a missile strike.
1/#KharkivWalks pic.twitter.com/pjZdczyCl4

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) November 10, 2022

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: Enemy destroyed another village near Kramatorsk, Donetsk. (AP)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on November 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults around Bakhmut near Soledar (10km northeast), Klishchiiivka (6km southwest), Mayorsk (20km south), Yakovlivka (15km northeast), Andriivka (9km southwest), and Bilohorivka (20km northeast).
• A Russian source reported that Russian forces conducted ground assaults near Novomykhailivka to reach Konstantinivka and cut off the road to Marinka from the south.
• Ukrainian General Staff Deputy Chief Oleksiy Hromov reported that Russian forces continued to suffer significant losses in the Bakhmut direction and National Guard of Ukraine representative Mykola Urshalovych stated that Russian forces continue to make suicidal attempts to launch assaults on Ukrainian positions around Bakhmut with “maniacal persistence.”
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area on November 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Vesele, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, and Novomykhailivka, all along an arc of the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: In Snihurivka, residents are overwhelmed with emotion as Ukraine liberates northern Kherson Oblast. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in Kherson Oblast on November 10 as Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny stated that in the past day, Ukrainian forces have advanced 7km and liberated six settlements in the Petropavlivka-Novoraysk direction (towards Beryslav) and advanced 7km and liberated six settlements in the Pervomaiske­­–Kherson City direction (towards Kherson City).
• Russian forces have begun constructing second-line defensive fortifications in Crimea and southern Ukraine, standard military practices that do not necessarily indicate an imminent Russian expectation of defending Crimea. American satellite imagery company Planet Labs published satellite photos on November 10 showing new trenches and restored defensive fortifications near Armiansk in Russian-occupied Crimea and near Chonhar, Kherson
• Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported on November 10 that Russian forces have also begun strengthening fortifications near Melitopol to protect the land corridor to Crimea.
• Russian occupation officials are continuing their attempts to erode Ukrainian national identity among residents of occupied territories while setting conditions to mobilize additional forces from the occupied Ukrainian civilian population years from now.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 10 that Russian occupation officials opened branches of the Young Army Cadets National Movement in Henichesk, Kherson Oblast and in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, a militaristic association of schoolchildren under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Defense that is responsible for the “militarization” of children. The Center reported that participation is supposedly voluntary, but that Russian officials forcibly enroll schoolchildren in Yunarmia in many Russian oblasts. Yunarmia recruits cadets between the ages of 8 and 18.

Confirmed territory changes in Kherson in the past 24 hours, visualised. pic.twitter.com/PMXu3ymOrr

— Artoir (@ItsArtoir) November 11, 2022

Here's a short clip of liberated Ukrainians seeing us for the first time.
We had this all day yesterday and the day before! 🥹
Like the hundreds of people we met, we also were almost overcome with emotion and tiredness. We pushed hard and fast. This is the result, happy faces ♥️ pic.twitter.com/V9BincVLJ2

— Macer Gifford (@macergifford) November 10, 2022