Victory Chronicles
-DAY 250

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: pUTIN EXPECTING WEST TO GIVE UP UKRAINE SUPPORT THIS WINTER

Above: LiveUAMap russian bombings and civilian air raid alerts last 24 hours

• Russia will continue to conduct conventional military operations well into 2023 rather than escalating to the use of tactical nuclear weapons or scaling back its objectives in pursuit of some off-ramp. It considers the timelines of Russian force generation and deployment, of weather effects, and of Moscow’s efforts to freeze Europe into surrender.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will most likely try to continue conventional military operations in Ukraine to hold currently occupied territories, gain new ground, and set conditions for the collapse of Western support for Ukraine that he likely expects to occur this winter.
• The theory underlying this Russian effort would be that freezing European populations will put such pressure on their governments that European states will begin to accept Putin’s demands to stop providing weapons and other forms of support to Ukraine, at least, and possibly to lift various sanctions on Russia as well.
• Putin is setting conditions to continue throwing poorly prepared Russian troops directly into the fighting in Ukraine for the foreseeable future rather than pausing operations to reconstitute effective military forces. Putin’s theory of victory relies on using the harsh winter to break Europe’s will.
• The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine. The russian federation continues the transfer of individual units to the territory of the republic of belarus.

ENEMY ATTEMPTS TO RESTOCK CANNON FODDER

Above:  putin’s war has come to the Komi people, relatives of Finno-Ugrics, who live not far from Arkhangelsk.  Komi men have formally complained of being sent to the front without equipment and personal protection. (Cirucmartic)

• Putin has declared that the “partial mobilization” of reservists is complete. That declaration means that, in principle, the Russian military will stop calling up reservists and instead focus on completing their brief training periods before sending them to fight in Ukraine. ISW previously assessed that most of the remaining called-up reservists will arrive in the theater of war over the next few weeks.
• The Russian military will begin its semi-annual conscription call-up a month later than usual on November 1, 2022. Russian law bans sending conscripts to combat operations abroad with fewer than four months of training, although it specifies that conditions of war or martial law allow the Russian military to deploy conscripts to fight earlier than that. Putin has declared martial law states of varying degrees of urgency throughout the Russian Federation and could use that declaration to trigger the exemption from the mandatory training period.
• The annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts offers another possible basis for exemption, because Russian law does not preclude the use of conscripts in Russian territory regardless of how much training they have received.
• Raw conscripts with no military experience and fewer than four months of training are likely to be nearly useless on the battlefield in any case. Putin may rush limited numbers of such conscripts to combat before their four-month training period is complete, but most will likely be held back until March 2023 at the earliest.
• Mobilized men from the Republic of Komi appealed to Russian authorities with complaints of insufficient military equipment and body armor.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: USA Today

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces estimated enemy losses for last 24 hours

• Liquidated personnel, 71,820 (+620)
• Tanks, 2,686 (+14)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,485 (+32)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,728/383 (+4/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 197 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 275/253 (+1/1)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,413 (+1)
• Cruise missiles, 352 (0)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,128 (+8)
• Special equipment, 154 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Residents save their belongings after their home was hit with an enemy shell near Beryslav, Kherson. (New York Times)

• The enemy continues strikes on critical infrastructure and civilian homes, violating international humanitarian law, laws and customs of war.
• During the current day, the enemy launched 3 missile and 1 air strikes, carried out more than 30 MLRS attacks from rocket salvo systems.
• Areas of more than 15 settlements were hit by enemy attacks. Among them are Kupyansk in the Kharkiv oblast and Berezneguvate and Ochakiv in the Mykolaiv oblast.
• The threat of missile strikes and the use of attack UAVs from the territory and airspace of Belarus remains.
• The enemy shelled in other directions:
  • in the Slobozhansk direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Veterynarne, Dvorichna, Starytsa, Strilecha and Chuhunivka settlements of the Kharkiv oblast;
  • in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Kislivka and Olhivka in the Kharkiv oblast, Hrekivka and Nevske in the Luhansk oblast, and Zarichne in Donetsk oblast;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Nevske, Opytne, Siversk and Soledar settlements of the Donetsk oblast;
  • in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Avdiivka, Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Oleksandropil settlements of the Donetsk oblast;
  • on the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy inflicted fire damage in the areas of Bohoyavlenka, Vremivka, Vuhledar, Novopil and Prechistivka settlements of the Donetsk oblast and Zaliznychne, Malynivka, Novodanilivka, Olhivske, Charivne and Chervone settlements of the Zaporizhzhia oblast.
• Areas of about 20 settlements along the contact line were affected by fire in the South Buzka direction.

KHARKIV-LUHANSK

Above: Line for free bread from the United Nations in a frequently targeted village near the front. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

Above: Michael MacKay

LUHANSK-DONETSK

Above: Ukrainian defender prepares wood for winter frontline troops.  (Aljazeera)

Map via ISW

• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Vodyane, Donetsk Oblast, (4km northwest of Donetsk International Airport) on October 30. The Ukrainian General Staff’s evening report did not report repelling Russian attacks in this area as it usually does, potentially indicating that the Russian claims are accurate.
• Russian sources reported that Russian forces captured Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast, (2km southwest of Vuhledar) on October 30. Some Russian sources claim that Russian forces control only half of Pavlivka as of October 30. The Ukrainian General Staff’s evening report did not report repelling Russian attacks in this area as it usually does, potentially indicating that the Russian claims are accurate.

Above: Michael MacKay

KHERSON-ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above: Enemy police checks documents of Ukrainians newly arrived at a filtration center in southern Ukraine. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• A Russian occupation official stated that Russian force are preparing to defend Kherson City by engineering defenses in Bilozerka and Chornobaivka. Ukrainian military official also noted that Russian officials continued to prepare defenses around Kherson City.
• Ukrainian military officials also reported that several hundred Rosgvardia servicemen deployed from the Republic of Chechnya to Kalanchak in southwestern Kherson Oblast.
• According to available information, the enemy is taking preparatory measures to withdraw artillery units from the right-bank part of the Kherson region, with their subsequent possible transfer to other directions.
• Russian forces launched Kh-59 cruise missiles at Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces targeted and destroyed military infrastructure in Ochakiv.
• The occupation authorities of the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region are trying to create conditions unsuitable for the local civilian population in the controlled territory. Thus, in Nova Kakhovka, since October 29 of this year, access to the Internet has been turned off and, through loudspeakers, they are spreading information about the need to leave the region within 48 hours due to the threat of allegedly missile strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
• Medical personnel of local hospitals and operational services of the city [Nova Kakhovka] are subject to priority so-called “evacuation”. In addition, the occupation authorities issued a decree obliging entrepreneurs to sell off all food products and close shops and markets from November 1, 2022.
• Occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast announced a dual currency system that allows the use of both rubles and hryvnia, unwinding a months-long effort to enforce rubleization in the oblast.