Victory Chronicles
-DAY 243

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: RUSSIA TESTING OUT VARIOUS FALSE FLAG SCENARIOS FOR DIRTY BOMBS, TACTICAL NUKES, BLOWING KAKHOVKA DAM

Above: In August 1941, the Soviets blew up the Dnipro Power Plant dam to halt the advance of German troops. There was no evacuation, and tens of thousands of civilians were killed as a result (Radio Liberty)

• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu likely sought to slow or suspend Western military aid to Ukraine and possibly weaken the NATO alliance in scare-mongering calls with several NATO defense ministers on October 23.
• Shoigu separately called his counterparts from France, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States on October 23, claiming that Ukraine is preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb (a conventional explosive laced with radioactive material that is not a nuclear weapon) to accuse Russia of using weapons of mass destruction.
• The Kremlin is unlikely to be preparing an imminent false-flag dirty bomb attack. Shoigu’s claims further a longstanding Russian information campaign. The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed that Western states will help Ukraine conduct a false-flag WMD attack since the earliest stages of its invasion of Ukraine in February.
• Shoigu’s claims likely do not portend Russian preparations to use non-strategic nuclear weapons in Ukraine either. ISW previously stated on September 30 that “ISW cannot forecast the point at which Putin would decide to use nuclear weapons. Such a decision would be inherently personal, but Putin’s stated red lines for nuclear weapon use have already been crossed in this war several times over without any Russian nuclear escalation.”

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Captured enemy tank deployed by Ukrainian forces. (Foreign Policy)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 67,940 (+470)
• Tanks, 2,590 (+6)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,295 (+11)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,673/375 (+6/1)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 189 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 270/245 (+1/2)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,370 (+9)
• Cruise missiles, 350 (+21)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,044 (+5)
• Special equipment, 149 (+2)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Another strategic military playground destroyed by the enemy in Mykolaiv. (The Guardian)

KHARKIV

Above: Ukrainian territorial defense forces dug in in Kharkiv. (The Guardian)

Map via ISW

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Bakhmut over the weekend.  Enemy shelling is reported to be without pause in Bakhmut. (RFERL)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian and Russian sources reported fighting near Siversk, Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka in eastern Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.

KHERSON AND ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above:  An enemy evacuation bus taking Ukrainians from Kherson to Crimea is marked in Russian “Children”. (The Guardian)

Map via ISW

• Russian authorities likely cut internet access in Kherson City on October 22 to limit local reporting of Russian evacuations to the east bank of the Dnipro River.[9] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City, Mykolaiv City, and other areas in Mykolaiv Oblast with Shahed 136 drones and S-300 missiles.[14] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces targeted Nikopol and Marhanets with multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) strikes.
• Russian outlets continued to set conditions to blame Ukraine for the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, which Russian forces will likely destroy to slow advancing Ukrainian forces.
• A Ukrainian source reported that Russian authorities in Krasnodar Krai have “indefinitely” extended the “vacations” (meaning forced abductions as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign) of children from Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast.