Victory Chronicles
-DAY 239

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: FORCED DEPORTATIONS AIMED AT ETHNIC CLEANSING

Above: The Guardian

ISW

• Russia continues to use the guise of civilian “evacuations” as a cover for the mass forced removal of civilians from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.
• [Kherson occupation authority] announcement of a mass withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River is likely intended in part to evacuate Russian occupation officials, collaborators, and other occupation organs in anticipation of imminent Ukrainian advances, but Russian officials are likely also using the façade of humanitarian necessity to deport large populations of Ukrainians to Russia, as ISW has previously reported.
• Russia does not appear to reap any economic benefits from resettling tens of thousands of unwilling Ukrainians in Russia, suggesting that the purpose of such removals is both to damage Ukraine’s long-term economic recovery as it retakes its territory and, more importantly, to support Russia’s ethnic cleansing campaign, which is attempting to eradicate the Ukrainian ethnicity and culture.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s October 19 declaration of martial law readiness is largely legal theater meant to legitimize activities the Russian military needs to undertake or is already undertaking while creating a framework for future mobilization and domestic restrictions.
• Putin also may be setting conditions for a less orthodox kind of under-the-radar mobilization: the creation of Ukrainian-style Territorial Defense Forces. Putin ordered local authorities to create a “territorial defense headquarters” in the four occupied Ukrainian oblasts and empowered local governors to undertake unspecified “territorial defense activities” in medium and elevated readiness areas (largely territories that border or are near Ukraine). This preparation likely serves at least two purposes: creating a legal framework for the forcible mobilization of Ukrainian civilians in Russian-occupied territories, as ISW has forecasted, and at least experimenting with a new kind of Russian military force.
• According to preliminary information, the leaders of iran and the russian federation have agreed to send advisers and instructors on the use of attack UAVs to the territory of the russian federation. In particular, it is known about the training of the operators of the existing “Shahed-136” UAVs and the promising “Arash-2” UAVs.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Graveyard of destroyed ruzzian vehicles in peaceful Ukrainian village. (Telegraph)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 66,650 (+370)
• Tanks, 2,567 (+13)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,255 (+20)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,646/372 (+9/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 189 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 269/243 (+0/1)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,311 (+25)
• Cruise missiles, 329 (+6)
• Warships/boats, 16 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 4,005 (+6)
• Special equipment, 147 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: The enemy is heavily targeting power infrastructure in order to take out heating for civilians this winter.  (The Guardian)

• Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure and the homes of the civilian population.
• During the day, the enemy launched eleven missiles and twenty-eight air strikes, carrying out more than sixty-five MLRS attacks.
• Areas of more than twenty-five settlements were hit by the enemy. These are, in particular, Burshtyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk oblast, Ladyzhyn in the Vinnytsia oblast, Zelenodolsk in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, Siversk, Sloviansk and Terny in the Donetsk oblast, Znachkove in the Zaporizhia oblast, and Davydiv Brid in the Kherson oblast. For their crimes, the occupiers used cruise, aviation and anti-aircraft guided missiles. In addition, the enemy launched more than ten Iranian-made Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles, more than half of which were from the territory of the republic of belarus.
• The situation has not changed significantly in the Volyn, Polissya and Siversky directions.
• The enemy shelled in other directions:
  • in the Slobozhansk direction – from artillery of various calibers, in the areas of the settlements of Hoptivka, Hryanykivka, Kolodyazne, Krasne, Ohirtseve and Strilecha of the Kharkiv oblast;
  • in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions – from barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Berestove, Kyslivka, Pershotravneve of the Kharkiv oblast; Kovalivka, Novoyehoryvka, Novolyubivka in the Luhansk oblast and Zarichne, Terny and Torske in the Donetsk oblast;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks and artillery, in the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Zelenopillya, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Pivnichne, Mayorsk, New York, Soledar and Yakovlivka settlements of the Donetsk oblast;
  • in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Opytne, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka settlements of the Donetsk oblast.
• [The enemy] fired in the areas of more than 20 settlements along the entire contact line. Among them are Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva of the Donetsk oblast and Mykilske, Orihiv and Chervone of the Zaporizhzhia oblast.
• The enemy continues to set up defensive positions in the South Buh direction. Russian enemy are shelling populated areas along the entire contact line to deter a counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops.

KHARKIV

Above: First responders work in debris of a destroyed building in Kharkiv. (Euronews)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued to conduct limited assaults to recapture lost territory in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults north of Kupyansk near Dvorichna (17km northeast of Kupyansk) in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov reported that Russian forces also struck civilian populations in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv, and Kupyansk raions with missiles on October 19.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: What the enemy leaves behind in a liberated city.  This is Svatove, Luhansk, soon to be liberated by Ukrainian forces. (Ukrainska Pravda)

Map via ISW

• Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued fighting along the Kreminna-Svatove line on October 19. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian assault on the Kyslivka-Kotaliarivka line in the direction of Svatove.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk, Odradivka,  Optyne,  and Niu York.
• According to available information, reinforcements from the number of mobilized persons have arrived in the temporarily occupied territory of Luhansk oblast. Numerous cases of robberies and looting are noted. It is possible that a significant number of the mentioned imprisoned contingent arrived from penitentiary places.

KHERSON AND ZAPORIZHZHYA

Above:  Mass deportations underway in Kherson Oblast.  (DW)

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding specific Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast on October 19. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces are continuing “active combat operations” and focusing on “creating favorable conditions for the development of further offensives.”
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command and other Ukrainian military sources reported that Ukrainian strikes destroyed three ammunition warehouses around Beryslav, Nova Kakhkovka, and Kherson City on October 18.
• Satellite imagery from October 18 shows that Russian troops have completed the creation of a barge bridge near Kherson City as part of an effort to reconstitute river crossings as Ukrainian troops continue to target Russian transportation capabilities across the Dnipro River.
• Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces are also setting information conditions to conduct a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. The Russian military may believe that breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river.
• There is a high probability that the russian occupiers will fire on the civilian population of the Kherson oblast. Thus, on the morning of October 19, 2022, in the temporarily occupied territory, messages were sent out calling for the evacuation of the population of Nova Kakhovka, allegedly in connection with the preparation of shelling by units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
• Russian sources widely claimed that Ukrainian troops conducted another general counteroffensive in northwestern Kherson Oblast on October 19.  Russian-appointed Kherson occupation deputy Kirill Stremousov claimed that Ukrainian troops went on the offensive around noon on October 19 and attacked from Nova Kamianka (northern Kherson Oblast, about 30km south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border) toward Beryslav.
• Russian forces continued routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole and in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts on October 19. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City, Hulyaipole,  Bereznehuvate Hromada, and Kryvyi Rih, with missile and drone strikes.
• Russian occupation officials again accused Ukrainian forces of shelling Enerhodar and attempting to seize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on October 19. These Russian claims remain unsubstantiated. Footage dated October 19 shows explosions at the Enerhodar city administration building and subsequent images confirm extensive damage to the building.